Friday January 9th

Unemployment and housing starts will be reported at 8:30 am today.

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SPX – I just want to point out what looks to be a bearish rising wedge that I see developing. It is nothing to be too concerned about, since the SOXX and IWM do not have anything close to one forming. We know that a dcl will come due and the dip should become a normal by the dip opportunity.

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SPX – So this may simply play out as a simple dip a week or so from now like this, or it may even break out higher. And again, The SOX and IWM are really more bullish looking…

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THE IWM is nothing like a bearish rising wedge. This is a breakout, back test and rally. Many of the stocks that have been in my reports for a couple of weeks are reflecting this price action.

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ACHER AVIATION rallied out of the November ICL, consolidated, and started to run higher again. It is now rising along the top of the 50sma and can move higher at any time.

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AREC moved out of the December low and has almost doubled $2-$4, but look at the rally from last year and you’ll see that this can run to $7, so it also became a buy and hold. It is above the 50sma now.

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I pointed out IONQ as Quants started to move again. It looked ready to move above the 50sma. It ran $1 higher and then pulled back into the close, so it is right at the 50sma ( a buy, especially if it moves higher).

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RR pushed through the 50sma, so I grabbed this chart when it shot straight up in the late morning. It closed up 15%. Drone stocks, Robotics and Aviation seem to really be doing well.

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AI stock SES looked like a double bottom with divergence to me. Now it looks to be forming a cup and I traded this in September and October and I wish that I had just held it as a buy and hold. It ran from roughly $1 to almost $4 rather quickly. Could it do that again? It could.

 

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WTIC – reversed and oil shot up from the lows yesterday and the Oil stocks did react to it this time. We have seen the Oil stocks run out of the lows in the past, but we haven’t really seen Oil make 4% gains very often, so now that it is back at the 50sma, we’ll see if it can finally break out.

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Some Oil stocks have sold off with Oil and are at the lows, while others have done well despite Oil struggling under the 50sma for so long. Some have held up and chopped sideways like Tidewater, which was mentioned in the comments yesterday, so I looked it up.

 

TDW – Tidewater was a $100 stock and it dropped to $30, so the 200sma turned down and has now flattened out (green line). The 50sma has crossed up above it bullishly and TDW regained that 200sma with the 50sma back test in August. Since then it has chopped sideways rather than sell off with Oil, so it shows signs of stability and it popped with Oil yesterday. IF Oil breaks that 50sma, this may perform well. I don’t own it, but MARKM mentioned it yesterday and it looks good.

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I used to trade NOG when oil was healthy. It sold off with Oil and seems to be putting in a base or lows. It has been in a downtrend, but IF Oil can get above the 50sma, this should follow.

VET, PUMP, and VLO are a few more that I used to trade and they have actually done well. I expect them to outperform if Oil breaks out. I am not in this sector yet.

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PUMP: This is also a company that I used to trade. ProPetro Holding Corp. is an oilfield services company that engages in the provision of hydraulic fracturing and other complementary services. They had earnings in late October and it shot up quickly. It is now consolidating gains.

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The USD actually was able to get through the 200sma and is now right at the 50sma, so the USD showed signs of strength in the MACD and with the higher low, and now we are seeing follow through strength.  HOW WILL THIS AFFEC T PRECIOUS METALS? So far, the USD has moved higher for many days since Dec 22.   Gold and Silver dropped, recovered, and dropped.

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GOLD dropped into a dcl and recovered to day 7 now. This can make another run, but time is getting late and the USD gained strength, so we’ll keep our eyes on this to see if this ends up as L.T. double top.

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From the other day–it appears that Silver is in a 3rd daily cycle(or 46 days out of the lows), with a double top at this point. This was a couple of days ago though…

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SILVER – Silver dropped but I am impressed. Silver looked ready to crash from a parabolic blow off top reversal, and it dropped to the 13sma and has held above it on a closing basis. It is higher this morning too, so in my opinion, as long as it close above the 13 sma, it has strength, but this too is day 7 with a day 4 peak.

This MIGHT still be a double top, but I will say this: Parabolic crashes usually come fast and furious. Some of the geopolitical unrest may be helping Gold & silver as a safe haven.

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AG is at the highs, so that is good. It is choppy and has been in an upward sloped consolidation after a strong 4-5 day rally. It resembles a ‘running correction’.  These can Pop with energy, but this also may just consolidate, like we saw in May after a strong run. It depends on Silver from here.

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CDE rallied and went green with Silver down yesterday, and some others followed, so that shows buying. Some of the Miners that did not follow Silvers strong burst higher are chopping higher now. Others like HL and now some of the 5-letter miner/explorers are acting nicely bullish. Let’s take a look at Hecla again.

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HL formed a small cup and deep handle consolidation in October through November, but then it chopped higher at a stronger pace than many others. In April through August HL was choppy and frustrating, right? Buy & Hold of HL since just August at the 200sma is now a triple plus! HL followed Silver.

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GDX is in a choppy channel that is sloped higher. Really, GDX is almost back at the highs. It seems to be that GDX started a 3rd daily cycle, which can be strong at the beginning, but then weakens later in the cycle.  GDX is choppy yet progressing.

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The Bulls continue to surprise to the upside in the General Markets and the Precious Metals. Gold and Silver looked to have topped a few weeks back, but in a 3rd daily cycle with geopolitical unrest, it is back at the highs. I (& some others here) have switched back to the general markets and cannot complain though. Robotics, Drones, Aviation, rare earth, software, and other tech stocks have been giving strong gains, so the bulls remain in control. Enjoy your Friday trading and your weekend!

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~ALEX

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YESTERDAY:

BITCOIN dropped this week and today is the 47th day out of the Capitulation low. This is a normal back test, but we are running out of time for this to reach that green 200sma, since daily cycles are roughly 60 days.

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BITCOIN -No change one day later, but at least it is holding support and above the uptrend line.