Friday January 2nd

Today is Friday, the last trading day of the holiday week, the first trading day of the new year.

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THE SPX: The General Markets sold off into the close on Wednesday, which was a full day of trading before the holiday. I thought that it would be interesting to look back and see what happened on the first trading day of the last 2 years. Do you remember?  I didn’t…

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I thought that it would be interesting to look back and see what happened on the first trading day of the last 2 years. Do you remember?  I didn’t, but I’ll give you a clue…both were Red.

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THE SPX rallied at the end of 2023 and then on January 2 and 3 we saw selling for the first couple of days of the year. What followed?

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THE SPX dipped slightly below the 20ema and then bounced and we saw a small rally in January 2024.

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THE SPX actually dropped sharply at the end of 2024. That ‘Santa rally’ died on Dec 16th. It bounced into Christmas (Dec 25) and then sold off sharply heading into the end of the year. It then dropped on January 2. What happened next?…

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THE SPX bounced and dropped into January 13th and then it put in a strong rally or bounce.

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So simply as a side note: The first day of trading for 2024 and 2025 were Red, and some of January itself was sloppy and choppy, yet both years ended up being bullish years.

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WTIC is still unable to get above that 50sma so far.

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The USD did get above the 20 ema on Wednesday and it should now run to the 200sma.

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GOLD, SILVER, & THE USD 6 a.m. ET – So far we see a surge higher with Gold up almost $80 and Silver up almost $3.

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GOLD dropped below that 10sma, so I wondered if the surge this morning puts it back above that 10sma? It does…slightly.

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GOLD live at 6:30 a.m. ET shows Gold trying to regain that 10sma.

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SILVER put in that large outside day candle, and that is usually a sign of a top and a reversal of trend. So far, Silver has not ‘Plunged’ below the supportive moving average (this is the 13 sma). This live shot shows that Silver reversed at the 13sma and is moving higher.

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GDX – Miners dropped with the Gold and Silver selling down, but they are not exaggerating the move like they usually do. The GDX sits on the 20ema and should bounce with Gold & Silver up premarket. This may be showing strength because we are only in the 2nd daily cycle, this may be a half cycle low for Miners.

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Again, this is the last trading day of the week, but also the first trading day of 2026. So far, the futures are green in the general markets and Gold and Silver.

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Enjoy your Friday trading!

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~ALEX

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BITCOIN is now on day 43 out of the lowest recent low, but it is pushing on that 50sma. It is possible for it to make a quick run to the 200sma, but time is running out and it has been weak after that November sell off. We are in the 4th year of the 4 year cycle, and that is a year of weakness and resets.