Wednesday November 5th – Just a little selling?
I’ve been thinking that we would drop to the 20ema and bounce and rally for a bit…or bounce and then roll over. I drew these 2 charts yesterday…
.
SPX– As a half cycle dip, we could tag the 20 ema, fill a gap, and then see something trigger buying again. Price could then run up to new highs and become R.T.
.
SPX– We keep in mind that an ICL is due according to the timing of this intermediate cycle. That may play out something like this chart shows us.
.
Well, we got our drop to the 20 ema with the SPX (SPY here) And NASDAQ. This is where I would buy with a stop for the bounce out of a half cycle low, but I saw so much selling in my favorite stocks yesterday, that I felt like some areas began breaking down. Many stocks lost the 50sma, so I am a bit cautious here.
.
THE NASDAQ is on day 17 and this could be a half cycle dip, but as I mentioned, several of the stocks that I trade often are losing the 50sma. I’ll show you that shortly…
.
THE NASDAQ FUTURES: I grabbed this shot of the futures, since they were down, but I’m seeing a bounce now and hopefully we’ll get some follow through higher, BUT THIS MIGHT BE MORE OF A‘ SELL THE BOUNCE’ move? I’ll show you what I’m seeing…
.
BBAI is looking weak. It lost the 50sma in September too, but it made a new high with a weaker RSI & MACD and now lost the 50sma again and volume is high…
.
SOUN & PONY just lost the 50sma too, and the ‘AI’ space was quite strong since we moved out of the ICL in April, so are we preparing for that drop into an ICL? This and other stocks seem to indicate that the markets are weakening.
.
QUBT Some of those super strong Quant stocks are looking pretty weak. When QUBT lost the green 50sma 2 weeks ago, it could not recover. $26 to $13 is Not what the buy and hold group invest in, so we’ve been seeing some selling increases. SO WE KEEP IN MIND THAT…
SO AS WE SEE THE SELLING PICKING UP, WE KEEP IN MIND THAT WE ARE ON MONTH 7 OUT OF THE APRIL ICL. We may be ready to roll over into the next ICL. I am only trading bounces at this point, I am not BUY & HOLD right now. The next ICL, however, may become a great buy opportunity, just like April was.
.
THE USD was .01 away from a new high, but I am seeing that it has made a new high in premarket at 100.27, so the USD finally has that new high and that signals a change here. We could trend higher with higher highs and higher lows. The good news? Gold and Silver are up pre-market too.
.
Yesterday I said
GOLD – Keeping it simple, we had an a-b-c drop to the 34 sma on day 29. It looks like a dcl and so far, we have just seen chop sideways on what should be day 4 now.
.
GOLD should be on day 5 yesterday, but I mentioned day 34 just in case we drop to the 50sma (see the following chart). I still think that the a-b-c drop gave us a dcl, we just need a push higher to confirm that. So…
.
GOLD Look at the Green Line. A push above $4017 moves Gold above the 10sma and a dcl would be confirmed.
.
SILVER dropped on Tuesday too, and a drop to the 50sma would also back-test of the downtrend line and it could be a slightly higher low, but we really want to see Silver start to move higher sooner than later. Note: That move higher did not pull the MACD up yet. We could get a weak, short-lived bounce. Maybe a ‘sell the bounce’ move here too and a ‘Buy the dip’ move later (ICL).
.
GDX almost lost the recent low, but even if it did and Gold and Silver moved higher today, it would just extend the dip count for GDX and likely run higher with Gold and Silver. GDX exaggerates the moves.
.
We saw selling yesterday, and I just want to report that it looked a bit different than past sell down days. Why? Well, I ran through my watchlists and usually I’ll see a good mix of stocks red and some green. It was hard to find any green stocks in ‘AI’, Aviation, Quants, Nuclear and Energy stocks, Crypto Stocks, and Miners. It was a complete sea of red, so that is something to take note of. If we move higher soon, we can look to see if it is a ‘weak’ looking bounce (Sell the bounce or lighten up), or do byers step back in with good volume? And as for Bitcoin? Even that got tricky yesterday. I wanted to load up heavily on that next low, but we’ll see. I’ll cover that below in detail. Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
.
~ALEX
.
#1:
BITCOIN joined in on the selling yesterday and we expected that. I have been saying that a new low should come in around day 60+ and we had a break of the lows yesterday on day 64. Selling as heavy and didn’t bounce back though, so I couldn’t buy heavily.
.
#2
BITCOIN – This is 11 p.m. and we see that we finally got a bounce in that Tuesday day 64 candle, and then a new candle shows up with a drop and recovery. That was a higher low so THIS Might be day 1. We are also finally as oversold as past sell down lows.
.
#3
BITCOIN – I am seeing some ‘similarities in the last 4-year cycle peak. I am going to address this in a future report, but notice where I said that ‘we could be here’ as price pierced the red 50sma. The following move higher was muted and sideways for 4 weeks and then it sold off. I will know very soon if this acts that way, but even as Bitcoin moves up & chops sideways, the Crypto stocks can run to new highs, because they are already up near the highs. So we should bounce from here and we’ll take it from there 🙂
.
Let’s just take a look at a few Crypto stocks that are chopping around closer to the highs. There are more than just these ones that are holding up well. They obviously could have a decent run for at least 30- 40 days of the next 60 day Bitcoin daily cycle. We’ll see…
.
