Wednesday November 12
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SPX – The drop in the half cycle low did not break the lows (dcl) and this is the definition of an uptrend. We are watching to see if the recent highs will be taken out or not, so let’s zoom in…
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SPX – We are on day 22 and at this point the markets look normal, but you can see that we lost the 50 sma for the first time since April and the chop also grew larger. We have a day 13 peak and that makes this L.T. unless we get above that. We are on month 7 so I would have to expect this to peak with day 13 and start a pullback into an ICL, but it has been a Strong Bull Run, so we bought the dcl area with a stop under the dcl and now we raise the stop to the day 20 low. As mentioned yesterday, some stocks are healthy looking, but many lost the 50sma and look choppy.
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From yesterday:
WTIC – Oil is crawling along the 50sma, and I have mentioned that we may be seeing an ICL. Oil has been weak except for that last ICL where we saw Oil blast off due to a Mideast war conflict arising. After that Pop, it just started trending lower for weeks. Oil may remain weak and choppy, but it should break above the 50sma and could run to $70 (UCO, USO or Oil stocks might offer a trade).
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WTIC – Oil ran up to the 50sma and pulled back on day 16 of a possible 45+ day daily cycle, and with an ICL in place, I think that it will be able to get above it sooner than later.
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Some Oil stocks like VET &PUMP shot up after their earnings release. This also makes the Oil lows look like an ICL is in place. I don’t chase these, but you can watch for a bull flag, pennant, or pull back to try to enter a trade.
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BTE also released earnings and pushed higher. This could pull back to the 50sma, but if Oil breaks out, this can just keep running, so I took a starter position. Why?…
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BTE WEEKLY – When you look at the weekly on some of these Oil stocks, they are beaten down and not overbought, so they do look to be coming back to life. So if we wanted to try a buy and hold approach on some of the ones that already released earnings, we may start to get surprises to the upside if Oil breaks that 50sma and runs to the 200sma.
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NOG has a double bottom and this 3 day push out of the lows came right after earnings was released, so Nog looks to have its bottom in place.
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BORR WEEKLY – This is another weekly chart simply showing that these Oil stocks were beaten down and could make some gains over time if Oil rises up out of this ICL with any kind of strength. The buying volume on BORR has been growing after a capitulation type low was put into place.
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VTLE has based out and popped 9% yesterday too. It has been extremely choppy this year, but it may be ready to run now. You can see that it is under the 200sma, but if it breaks out or crawls along the 200sma, or especially if it pulls back first, it may offer a nice buy entry.
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THE USD also appears to have an ICL in place and it did recently make its first higher high in months. It also hit resistance, so a pullback into a dcl and another try to push higher is what we’re seeing here. The USD drop may have helped gold Pop.
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THE USD made a slightly higher highs, but found resistance at the 200sma, so it has pulled back, but I now think that it will be able to break out above that 200sma. SO FAR, this USD strength has not really hindered Gold, but the USD was rising as Gold pulled back, and now Gold has curled upward as the USD pulled back.
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GOLD – This is the dilemma. Gold dropped as the USD ran up. Gold has popped as the USD dropped. I think that the USD has an ICL and is now proving to be Right Translated, so does that mean that Gold will give us the deeper dip into an ICL as the USD rises? Maybe. Let me again remind you of 3 possible paths going forward.
1. Parabolic rally
2. Bounce and larger a-b-c down into an ICL
3. Sideways consolidation like we saw this year
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GOLD could just be ready to continue on a parabolic run higher, as seen here, so we bought the dcl and use a stop.
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IN THE WEEKEND REPORT WE LOOKED AT THE BIGGER PICTURE POSSIBILITY: JUST A SHORT BOUNCE or a RALLY?
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This was my weekly chart with a bounce that doesn’t make new highs. We have that bounce taking place now.
A simple a-b-c down for GOLD can also bring us down to the blue line near $3750 also.
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I also thought that Gold has been churning sideways and consolidating, so we might see something like this:
And of course we cannot rule out a bullish choppy triangle, similar to the one that we saw in 2025 for GOLD. This moves price along in time without that deep crash of an ICL.
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SILVER is on day 10 and tis does look like a bullish cup forming. You could raise stops to day 6.
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GDX is climbing higher out of the dcl too. Again, we’re looking to see if Gold or Silver can make a new high and become R.T., or will they roll over. If you bought the dcl, you just keep raising stops.
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Bitcoin is below, enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN is on day 8 and a day 64 low is within the timing that we were targeting, so now we buy and hope for a rally. Yesterday I gave you the 2 short term possibilities with a day 8 count in place…
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YESTERDAY I SHARED THESE 2 CHARTS:
#1 BITCOIN: Choppy and weaker
Bitcoin moved higher out of that day 64 low this weekend, but the crypto sticks didn’t really have solid follow through yet. So are we just meandering and will see price stall out as a ‘topping process’ to the 4 year cycle, as seen here? That may hppen, but even if it did, I expected Crypto stocks to push higher.
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#2 BITCOIN: A rally for one last try at all-time highs.
Bitcoin sill has every chance of gather some steam in a move out of this low and breaking to new all-time highs, since we have 60 days in a daily cycle. We just have to ‘buy low’ and see how high this can go.
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So Far the Crypto stocks are near recent lows and not showing a sign of strength yet. In fact, they look as though they have topped. That can change, but right now they lack buyers.
Let me just show you 4 weekly crypto stocks. 2 were the stronger ones (CIFR & IREN), the other 2 (RIOT & CLSK) did ‘ok’, but right now all 4 are near the weekly lows.
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MAYBE IF WE GET THIS KIND OF A BOUNCE, THEY’LL PERK UP, BUT RIGHT NOW I HAVE TO REPORT THAT THE CRYPTO STOCKS LOOK LACK-LUSTER, as though they have topped.
