Tuesday November 11th
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In a recent report I mentioned that I will be looking for ‘clues’ with this half cycle dip. Will we find Clues of continuing strength or new signs of weakness? We have been discussing ‘timing’ too, and whether or not the bull run can continue or will it dip down into an ICL on month 7.
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SPX – Here we have a half cycle low that broke and recovered the 50sma (weaker than past dips), then it gapped up bullishly yesterday. So this doesn’t give us a solid clue, but it did seem weaker. The next thing that we’d look for is a lower high. That would make day 13 a ‘peak’ and it would be L.T. That said, I did find another clue…
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IWM – SPX and NASDAQ did NOT break their dcl. Another clue that I found is that when the IWM dipped down, it broke the October low. That is a sign of weakness and it should indicate that we have a failed daily cycle for the Russell 2000. Also, take a look at the last 3 ‘new highs’ or new ‘peaks’. They were not confirmed by the MACD here, since the MACD has been making lower highs, so this does seem to indicate that the general markets could be weakening and topping out short term.
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Also some of my stronger stocks that I usually trade broke below the 50sma convincingly. They are oversold and can bounce around, but I doubt that even these recently strong stocks will make new peaks.
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SOFI broke down and recovered quickly, so a stock like this can easily run to new highs, so if you are holding one that just did a flash crash and recovered, that may do well over the next few days.
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WTIC – Oil is crawling along the 50sma, and I have mentioned that we may be seeing an ICL. Oil has been weak except for that last ICL where we saw Oil blast off due to a Mideast war conflict arising. After that Pop, it just started trending lower for weeks. Oil may remain weak and choppy, but it should break above the 50sma and could run to $70 (UCO, USO or Oil stocks might offer a trade).
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THE USD also appears to have an ICL in place and it did recently make its first higher high in months. It also hit resistance, so a pullback into a dcl and another try to push higher is what we’re seeing here. The USD drop may have helped gold Pop.
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GOLD had a nice Pop Sunday night into Monday and this is day 9. After a small sideways chop, it popped nicely and has held up along the 34 sma. Could This sector do that 2nd run that we have discussed? That RSI never really lost the 50% line decisively and it does look like Gold could run to new highs. We’ll see how this plays out and if you bought the dcl, you now have comfort with a stop under the 34sma.
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IN THE WEEKEND REPORT WE LOOKED AT THE BIGGER PICTURE POSSIBILITY: A BOUNCE or a RALLY.
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This was my weekly chart with a bounce that doesn’t make new highs.
A simple a-b-c down for GOLD can also bring us down to the blue line near $3750 also.
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I also thought that Gold has been churning sideways and consolidating, so we might see something like this:
And of course we cannot rule out a bullish choppy triangle, similar to the one that we saw in 2025 for GOLD. This moves price along in time without that deep crash of an ICL.
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But if GOLD breaks to new highs, it could continue to go parabolic. I have mentioned maybe that $5000 area or more?
SILVER almost dropped to the 50sma, chopped sideways and also Popped nicely on day 9. I feel that Silver could easily run to new highs because of how Silver moves. The RSI looks good and this chart of Silver looks good here too. I think that we can raise stops to that mild low 3 days ago and see if Silver makes new highs and takes off or not.
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GDX looked really weaker than Gold and Silver. It lost the 50sma and couldn’t recover, but I did say that GDX would likely follow Gold and Silver if they moved higher, and it has done that here. This could be an Island Bottom and they are often followed by a bullish gap and go move.
KGC – I did expect more of a 7-9% day out of my favorite Gold stocks, but KGC gave us 4.5%, IAG was 4.8%, etc. I’m hoping that they start to pick up steam over time. Some Silver stocks…
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I was also surprised to see that Some Silver stocks gave us a pop and drop, like CDE, FSM, and SSRM lagged a bit too. Other Silver stocks…
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Some Silver stocks gave us 7-10%, like HL, EXK, etc, with the smaller 5 letter miners doing even better, so we’ll just have to see how this continues to play out. You can buy a lagger or just stick with the leaders.
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After that somewhat short period of selling, the lows are in place for the General Markets (half cycle low), Precious metals (DCL) and Bitcoin (DCL). Now we continue to look for signs of strength or weakness and go from there. Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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Sidenote: My in-laws are in town for a week, and we may go into Boston, or do a trip to Portland Maine, the White Mountains, etc, with day trips or evening trips, so the reports may come out closer to 8 am ET on some days this week. I usually gather my charts at night and upload them, but then I often get up early and finish writing up the details in the morning hours. With family in town, my schedule may differ, especially if we are out later into the night. Thanks.
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~ALEX
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#1 BITCOIN
Bitcoin moved higher out of that day 64 low this weekend, but the crypto sticks didn’t really have solid follow through yet. So are we just meandering and will see price stall out as a ‘topping process’ to the 4 year cycle, as seen here? That may hppen, but even if it did, I expected Crypto stocks to push higher.
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#2 BITCOIN
Bitcoin sill has every chance of gather some steam in a move out of this low and breaking to new all-time highs, since we have 60 days in a daily cycle. We just have to ‘buy low’ and see how high this can go.
