Thursday November 20th – JOBS REPORTS ARE BACK

We are scheduled to get an abundance of data this morning, including The Jobless Claims Report and delayed unemployment reports this morning. This will be the update due to the government shut down. The markets are set up to drop, so we’ll see if that becomes the catalyst for a deeper sell off, or a decent bounce and then a drop. I’ll explain…

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THE SPX is on day 28 and that is often when the markets start to get heavier, but this has been a strong bull market and it’s not unusual to see buyers buy the dip, not understanding that a dcl is coming due. With the Jobs report…

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With the Jobs Report coming out, we could get a bounce to the 20 ema & 50sma and then a sell off, as drawn here, or we may just sell off, but so far the 20ema has acted as resistance.

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BULL MARKET WARNING:

THE SPX is slightly oversold and has not had a bullish catalyst, but it also hasn’t given us a failed daily cycle yet. I feel that it IS possible that we get a stronger bounce to the downtrend line and yet it would still remain L.T. That could be a day head-fake to get the bulls to go long and then smart money sells it off next week. A move like this would not surprise me with a Bull Market peak.

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THE NASDAQ has been chopping and doing some ‘pop and Drop’ price action, but the red line is the 10sma and the Nasdaq has not even been able to even reach the 10sma. We do not have a failed daily cycle yet, but this is very L.T. and I believe that it will break down sooner or later. That jobs report could cause a stronger bounce, or a faster sell off, as mentioned above.

 

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WTIC – Oil continues to churn along under the 50sma. The MACD looks progressive, and this is likely an ICL in October. Stocks like PUMP, VET, VLO, etc also bottomed in October.

THE USD is starting to make higher highs, higher lows, indicating an uptrend is starting and an ICL is in place.

 

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GOLD this morning is dropping down lower, but it isn’t an ugly set up by any means, so I wanted to point this out:

 The $4000 mark looks interesting. A break below that isn’t instantly bearish, but the uptrend and triangle will be broken and it will give this a weakening look.

 

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At this point, GOLD remains above the 50sma and the pattern is similar to the ‘peak’ that we got in April before that lengthy consolidation. Long choppy consolidations can be frustrating as they develop (see April – August), but they pay off when they breakout and release that energy in a nice run higher.

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SILVER dropped and then ran back to the highs. It is a bullish pattern, but it will take more time to know whether this is just forming a longer consolidation or setting up to push to new highs again.

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GDX was a bit choppy and sloppy at the recent lows, but it is following the metals again. It has regained the 50sma, but this weeks selling had higher volume than the recent buying. Yesterday was another pop & drop, giving it a look that people are still taking profits. I feel that Miners will follow the metals.

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The Jobs Report will be released at 8:30 am, and that means that we should see a premarket reaction. The markets may jump enthusiastically, but we have been seeing a lot of ‘pop & drop’ price action as sellers sell into the daily rallies. We’ll just have to wait and see how much price action comes from that report, and which direction it travels in. We are due for a sell off into a dcl/icl soon.

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~ALEX

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BITCOIN has been selling of relentlessly. I honestly do not see any other way to count this drop, but it puts us at day 79 for a low so far!  It COULD be a day 64 dcl that ‘peaked’ on day 7 and then rolled over and failed on day 9,  but that just seems way too early for that kind of weakness. So what about a bounce?…

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BITCOIN could begin to push higher with the 20ema and 50sma as resistance, and then will it get to the red 200sma? Once we see that a low is in place, we can take it a step at a time.