Thursday November 13th
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THE NASDAQ actually opened higher and then closed that gap and continued to drop right to the 20ema. It bounced back a little and closed the day slightly red. I would just raise a stop under the 20ema because if it falls down there after day 23 it is likely going to stay L.T. and sell off soon. So far the MACD has not bounced with Price.
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THE SPX actually dropped and bounced back and is holding up slightly better, since it is nicely above the 20 ema.
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OIL dropped sharply yesterday after bouncing off of that 50sma. I expected price to crawl along the underside, but it just dropped instead. It still could be the ICL, but it is also L.T. so far, so to confirm an ICL we need to see price re cover soon. Oil stocks still look fine.
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The USD continues to pullback after tagging the 200sma. This is still a R.T. daily cycle and Or more likely …
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Or I think that this is most likely a R.T. first dcl and a now a R.T. 2nd daily cycle on day 18. It could land on the 50sma and make another run at the 200sma. So far the USD is dropping into a dcl and Gold & Silver are bouncing higher.
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GOLD is moving higher out of its own dcl as the USD is dropping. We still can’t tell if the USD will affect Gold when it bounces higher, but we buy the dcl and ride it higher. Silver has been very strong over the last couple of days, but before we get to silver…
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I have been saying that this is 1 possibility for GOLD. It could just be ready to continue on a parabolic run higher, as seen here, so we bought the dcl and use a stop.
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And of course we cannot rule out a bullish choppy triangle, similar to the one that we saw in 2025 for GOLD. This moves price along in time without that deep crash of an ICL. GOLD WOULD NOT MAKE NEW HIGHS.
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SILVER surged over 4% at one point, and in after hrs almost made new all-time highs, so buying this dcl has at least paid off in the short term. We will have strong divergence if it makes new highs, but that alone isn’t a sell signal. It could develop a chop or a handle on a cup to allow the MACD to catch up, however it also mnight signal a possible double top…
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SILVER came 5 cents short of a new all-time high and then pulled back, according to this Spot Silver chart.
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GDX had a nice 3% day and should follow Gold and Silver wherever they go. We see the MACD divergence here too and again, it’s not a sell signal, but it would take some time to move the MACD back to the highs.
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At this point, we are getting a move higher out of the half cycle low in the general markets, and some stocks have done well, especially some semiconductors like TSEM, AMD, MY, etc, but other stocks are stuck below the 50sma. That makes me take note that this may become a L.T. daily cycle and then a dip into the ICL. It has not been a strong move so far, so I remain cautious. We are on month 7 out of the April ICL. As for Precious metals? We are also getting a good push out of the dcl in precious metals, but it could still go either way, so you buy the dcl or the lows and have a stop in place and even raise a stop. Miners have been rising up with Gold and Silver. Bitcoin and Crypto stocks are another story, I’ll cover that below. Enjoy your Thursday trading.
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~ALEX
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This is Bitcoin at 6 a.m. this morning. It has been chopping around at the lows and is under the 50 and 200sma at this point. Crypto stocks do not look good at this point. In the past IREN, CIFR, WULF, etc would lead the way higher, but right now they are making new lows each day. BTDR got crushed with earnings and others have not rallied after earnings either. I have mentioned before that…
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I have mentioned before that this is starting to look like a top.
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When I posted this chart I mentioned that if we weren’t at the timing for a dcl, I would call this a topping process and leave it alone. I have been at least hoping for a nice run back to the highs, but as mentioned above, so far we’ve churned around at the lows.
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AS MENTIONED IN OHER REPORTS, CRYPTO STOCKS LOOK LIKE A TOP
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And BTDR gives us a clear warning about Crypto stocks.
BTDR released earnings the other day and it just plunged. Now they did an offering overnight and it is set to open even another 15% down so far, so this gets ugly fast, the way these trade. They move FAST in both directions.
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And as Bitcoin churns sideways at the lows, these continue to make lower lows now. That MACD did not bounce at all with the bounce in CLSK a couple of weeks ago.
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New lows as Bitcoin popped and churned sideways. The RSI says double top.
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