Friday November 28th

Today is Friday and we only have the markets open for half of the day in The U.S., so this report will be mainly discussing what has happened on this holiday shortened week. I’ll start with the fact that we were hearing that it was likely that we would see ‘no rate cut in December’. The markets did not like that. The General Markets and Precious Metals were due for a dcl and they sold off.

 Suddenly last Friday (Nov 21) I pointed out that we had a series of Fed speeches and a number of these Fed reps said that they WOULD be voting for a rate cut on Dec 10 to help the labor market. Last Friday the markets reversed higher and they have not stopped rising since. Let’s discuss that…

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Take a look at The IWM. On Nov 10th I pointed out that the IWM was the first to give us a failed daily cycle. It broke below the daily cycle and reversed, but it was too early for a dcl on day 20, so this reversal was not a strong buy, it would likely be a bounce.

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We saw a 3 day bounce and it rolled over. So the dcl was still ahead. Again, the rumor was now that there would be No Rate Cut in December.

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Now look at last Friday as the Feds spoke. It reversed strongly on Friday and continued to climb on Mon, Tues, and Wednesday. THIS is almost at new highs, and that is why I wanted to show IWM first. If this breaks to new all-time highs…

 

If this breaks to new all-time highs, then this was probably

1. A left translated daily cycle

2. A failed daily cycle, and

3. An a-b-c drop into an ICL.   The strength has been bullish.

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SPX – Could that have been a very mild ICL?  Well, with the rate cut talk boosting hopes, it could be a complete drop. We knew that one was due on Month 7 and we expected an ICL drop, but that would be a mild one. The only issue that I have is that we are rising up on a shortened holiday week, and often the big traders take the week off and start a vacation, so the markets are easier to push around.  That said….with a reversal and 4 day run higher, this is a bullish looking chart right now and we are on day 5.

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WTIC has ’50 day daily cycles’ and Oil has been chopping along under the 50 sma. Will it run up and finally break out? It is possible with a possible half cycle low in place. It is oversold again.

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GOLD – On Nov 7th I pointed out that we could consolidate and not break the recent lows.

On Nov 19th we took note of the similarities of this consolidation and the 2025 ICL.

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Currently GOLD dropped down in a-b-c fashion, and it then started to bounce. I mentioned that you could buy that low with a tight stop and see what happens. Gold was due for an ICL so there was a chance that this would drop down even lower, but as mentioned above, we also discussed that we might see a consolidation similar to the last ICL. We are now seeing a triangle form, and an ICL can form in a triangle. Gold looks bullish and is consolidating those great gains that it racked up in 2025.

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SILVER is also consolidating sideways and it has a series of higher lows above the 50sma. That is showing more strength than weakness over time. Selling is being bought above the 50sma.

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FROM WEDNESDAYS REPORT:

GDX was a bit stifled, but the chart looks bullishly set up and a few Miners looked very good.

THE GDX popped this week and the choppy, weaker looking GDX of early November (losing the 50sma twice) has strengthened over time. I have been saying that The GDX will follow Gold & Silver, and since Gold and Silver are forming bullish triangles, GDX is now looking bullish too.

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FROM WEDNESDAYS REPORT, AS OF TUESDAY:

IAG moved to 2025 highs by midday. As a trader or buy & hold at support, a trade like this (Say you bought 500 to 1000 shares), ran from $11 when we saw the dcl or even $12.70 from the 50sma reversal Friday, to $14.70.  at $2 / share with 1000 shares, you’d make $2000 on this stock alone. IAG looks like an odd cup and handle now, but obviously you would want a stop in place at the 50sma at this point.

In the commenting section I pointed out that we are now starting to see some Miners breaking to new highs, like HL as an example. HL got choppy and put in wide swings with Silvers drop, but since Fridays (Fed rate cut chatter), it has been straight up.

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Recently I showed how, just last week, many Miners looked very weak. AG lost the 50sma twice and this was with that ‘No rate cut in December’ thinking. This was last Thursday!

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With Miners like AG, we got the Friday reversal, and it was most likely from the Fed chatter of a rate cut.

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AG  reversed on Friday and rallied this week. It shot up another 10% on Wednesday alone!

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So this week has been a good week for traders and investors, and it makes me think that we could just continue to see more upward price action on our half day of trading Friday. I have just a couple of concerns, but price action has been good. 1 concern is that we rallied partly because of the holiday shortened week and rate cut discussions. Another concern is that we saw a dcl on day 30? That seems short, but the lows may very well be in place with the bullish price action that we have seen. Now that we have 4 days up, it is possible to hold positions and see what we get over time. If you went in heavily, you could even cut position size for the weekend and then buy a dip if we see one next week or over time. We have all heard of the ‘Santa rally’, and with our recent sell off low, we may have started that run out of a mild ICL. Time will tell.  Enjoy your Friday markets, Bitcoin is below!  🙂

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~ALEX

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BITCOIN seems to have finally bottomed too. It isn’t having a strong v-bottom surge at this point (yet), but some of the crypto stocks are putting in double digit %-Gains, so money can be made here. I tend to like to start with the stronger performers CIFR, IREN, DGXX, HUT, WULF, etc.  Then I watch the others to see how they are doing (They may play catch up quickly)…

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CLSK, for example, may be starting to play catch up quickly. Afterall…

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CLSK is already up 38% for the week, and this week has only been 3 days long so far 🙂

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HUT is up 23% after turning higher at the weekly 20 ma

 

Notes from Wednesdays report too.

CIFR started to break the 50sma, but this has been a move from under $14 to over $17 and it can continue.

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WULF was up 10% and regained the 50sma. It has moved from close to $10 to $14. HUT has moved from $30 to $40. So the bounce so far is profitable. I have traded this area too.