Thursday October 9th – Still Running
I needed to write & release the report on Wednesday night because I have 2 Dopler ultrasounds requiring me to check in at 7 am Thursday morning, so I will be away for a while. If you are reading this report in the morning, you can check and see what the futures are, but keep in mind that we also will have Jobless Claims at 8:30 (if data is available with the Gov’t shutdown), and also apparently the ‘Feds’ are holding an address with the banks! I won’t be around until after 10 or 11 a.m. to comment. In this report, I will include some reminders from Wednesdays report and post new charts of the Wednesday trading day. I should be home around 10-11 am – sometimes these appointments delay or drag on.
News heading : “All eyes will be on the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell’s speech today. Powell will be speaking at the Community Bank Conference on Thursday, October 9, 2025.” It has been mentioned that the Gov’t Shutdown could prevent some data from being available.
.
FROM WENESDAYS REPORT: I mentioned the length of this intermediate cycle as already being quite long
SPX – Just as a reminder:
1. I have already mentioned this, but we are in a strong bull run and it is now longer than that 2023-2024 run that I have been comparing it to.
2. We do not have an ICL dip yet, but we could start one at any time since we are 6 months along. I have mentioned that too, that maybe we dip in OCT and then rally out of the Fed mtg.
3. In strong bulls like 2024, you can see that the ICL dip was ‘mild’, but yes- you gave some gains back. The next rally then made up for that, since it rallied very sharply too. Please study the chart.
THE SPX went on to make all-time highs again on Wednesday!
THE NASDAQ also made all-time highs. So on Tuesday we saw a biggish down day and then the next day we are at new highs. We can still continue higher and dip later, as drawn here. Bulls are strong animals.
IWM was choppy after a short run out of the ICL. Then it pushed a little higher in June, and then became choppy again. Right now, the IWN is chopping steadily higher along the 20ema. If this has a day 45 peak and this is day 47, we should top soon, but the dip could be mild again.
FROM WEDNESDAYS REPORT
Take a look at CGC. The markets were down but CGC was up 4% (pop and drop, it was up earlier in the day). This is a nice long base and a ‘triangle’ or ‘wedge’ has formed. TLRY, OGI, SNDL, etc already ran higher out of their bases (See charts above), but this lagger may be a bullish set up – set to play catch up. The only problem would be the dreaded public offering.
CGC dropped and then started to recover, so I posted this chart.
By the close, CGC was actually trying to breakout above that 200sma and a downtrend line (that I didn’t draw in). This may be ready to run; I like the long-term chart.
.
SRFM pushed higher. Read the chart. You can see that if this completes forming a cup, it will be good gains.
THE USD moved higher again, and I simply drew these boxes to show prior runs higher were pretty strong looking, but they still gave us lower highs that were Left Translated. I’ll be watching to see if that changes on this run, but the USD price moving higher IS NOT affecting Gold , Silver, or the Miners,
GOLD is running strong despite the USD run out of the lows. Is this running parabolic or not? I would have to say…
GOLD is running strong, and if it just keeps running higher, it would most likely be parabolic going straight up. If it pulls back and gives us a daily cycle lower, however, then it can reset and make another very strong run. I’m hoping for that ICL dip, because then you could load up and ride that Rocketship higher.
SILVER is very similar now. It was choppy and bumpy for a long time, but we are seeing more steady buying as it stretches upward. At day 15 it can climb to day 20 or even day 25 and then start to dip, so we just ride it out for now. It has NOT broken the 10sma, so that is a clue to watch for.
FROM YESTERDAY:
GDX was sloping lower in April – May, then it popped and started to consolidate sideways for months too. Those consolidations can then build up energy, and we are now in a vertical ascent. This is a very strong bull that isn’t breaking below the 9 sma yet. It will when it puts in a dcl, but this should only be day 14 today.
And day 15 for The GDX pushed higher. Again, watch the 9 or 10sma when we have a down day or 2, for clues as to whether this is remaining strong or weakening.
YESTERDAY I SAID: Notice what I mentioned in red…
EXK: Why are some of the Silver stocks just chopping sideways? Sometimes that is what happens during a nice run. We get both buyers and sellers and a consolidation forms, which can break out higher and run too. This may tag that 20 ema and then make a run higher again.
EXK actually dropped to the 20ema with Silver higher, and then it reversed and took off higher. It looks ready to break higher from this consolidation.
I had to release the report Wednesday night, and I’ll be back hopefully by 11 a.m. the latest. The Feds meet with the banks and likely many will be looking for hints about interest rates. I’m wondering, however, if the current Gov’t shutdown in the US may deprive them from the data that they use, and that decision may be unavailable at this time. We’ll see. Bitcoin is discussed below, enjoy your Thursday trading!
~ALEX
BITCOIN pulled back, surged higher and then pulled back again. We may see more chop before it can break out higher. Read the chart.
CIFR – I saw several crypto stocks take off at the end of the day, after being red, and ramp up quickly. CIFR and BITF took off and were up 14% in minutes.
Does anyone remember when I said that CLSK & MARA were laggers. Of course you do.
CLSK was under the 50 & 200sma in September, lagging Bitcoin and the other stocks like IREN, HUT, WULF, CIFR, etc. Well, CLSK ramped up and has almost doubled in a month! Congrats if you bought it and rode it higher!! MARA was also lagging too. Has it almost doubled?
.
MARA was also lagging too. Has it almost doubled? Nope! It did run $15 to $21, but it has been choppy, and it also DID form a cup. That cup could break out and run.
