Thursday October 23rd – Turbulence
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SPX –
1. Here I am just showing that a little choppiness out of a dcl is fine, it’s normal. That being said,
2. I am also keeping in the back of my mind that we are on month 6 out of that April ICL and it will soon be month 7 (Nov 7th) after the Fed Mtg on Oct 29. We are due for a larger correction, so the start of a drop into an ICL after the Fed is also possible.
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After a large sell off, I noticed that several Copper/Metals stocks reversed at support. Uranium and Rare Earth also reversed.
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TGB reached oversold and this is also a Bullish Engulfing at the 50sma, so it may be a legitimate buy. This would be easy to buy with a stop. FCX, SID, VALE , also look good, but CENX does not.
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UUUU surged higher after losing the 20 ema, so this (& Uranium stocks) may be finding buyers too.
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UAMY bounced off of the 20 ema area 4 times (above the 20ema actually). That makes this one look strong but also choppy. If you look closely, some of those candles are $11 to $14 in a day!
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Did you notice that the general markets are back up near the all-time highs?
Well, WE KNOW THAT THE MARKETS ARE ON MONTH 6.5 OUT OF THE ICL, SO I WONDERED IF THESE FORMER LEADERS ARE LEADING US INTO AN ICL? The selling has been a sharp decline in many of my favorite stocks.
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QBTS – All of the quant stocks dropped rather deeplt. In fact, I see it with Quants, Robotics, AI stocks, etc, so I wondered if they were leading us lower? Remember, the SPX, QQQ, and Dow are back near the all-time highs, so why are these so weak? It makes me wonder.
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RR dropped sharply too and lost the uptrend that it had in place. I was wondering if this change (deeper selling) is the start of a deeper dip into an ICL. The markets are near the highs right now. We’ll know over time.
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SMR lost an uptrend right after breaking to new highs. This 4 days of selling doesn’t match what the general markets are doing. The markets are now at new highs while these continue to dip.
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RCAT was also doing fine up near the highs 6 days ago, but as mentioned, many of these former ‘runners’ are falling sharply, while the markets return to the highs. It just makes me wonder if smart money has been unloading these sectors over the past week, and the markets may follow post-fed.
NOTE: Overnight news came out that some Quant companies are negotiating with the Trump administration for funding and they Popped 15% Pre-market. That still may only be a short term pop with an a-b-c down, OR it boosts the sector.
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WTIC finally Popped and may have a dcl in place. After a series of lower lows from June to now, this MIGHT be…
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WTIC – After a series of lower lows from June to now, this MIGHT be an a-b-c into an ICL, but it is hard to tell, because Oil has longer daily cycles. Longer daily cycles, like 50 days long, often causes the intermediate cycle to last longer than 6-7 months, so we may have 1 more weak daily cycle ahead.
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GOLD: After 1 sharp day down, Gold actually dropped and then reversed on day 24. We have been getting some early dcl’s lately, so this MIGHT be the dcl at the 20 ema.
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GOLD -I have been saying that we may drop right down to the Fed Mtg at day 29, so this also could play out as an a-b-c down. If you are buying Miners here, you could use a stop or you may have to ride out a pop and drop with the Fed ahead.
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AS A REMINDER: THIS IS WHAT THE NASDAQ DID AFTER IT PEAKED AND PULLED BACK: I asked…
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– ARE WE AT THAT MIDPOINT AREA, with one more strong run higher” after the Fed?
– OR ARE WE ALREADY AT THAT HIGHER PEAK, with a pullback here, a double top at the Fed, and then a deeper drop into an ICL? THIS IS when I added JNPR, EMC, CSCO, etc. and lost money buying dips repeatedly.
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GOLD – If Gold is at that midpoint area, then we could see Gold put in a dcl here and rally higher to $5000 plus. It is really hard to buy before the next fed mtg, due to volatility, but I know that many are ‘Buy and Hold’, so maybe the worst is over for your positions.
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GOLD – We also keep in mind this parabolic looking move is taking place on the weekly chart. Can this make one more run higher? We shall see.
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After the deep drop with Silver on Tuesday, I mentioned on Wednesday’s report one idea for Silver on this chart. I said that we could pull back into the Fed with a dcl, and Rally with his speech or after the Fed day. I drew it as an a-b-c down into the Fed using this chart in yesterdays report.
This could be a perfect set up, if it happens.
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Yesterday SILVER actually dropped and then put in a very small candle, so it would also be very easy to put in a swing low with any move higher. That swing low would be a dcl, but it also cannot be ‘confirmed’ or made more sure until price got above the 10sma. Where is that 10sma?…
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SILVER has the 10 sma at $51.23.
SILVER can bounce and drop into the Fed Mtg (day 29), or it can just rally.
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1. GDX gapped down on Tuesday and then gapped down again on Wednesday, but this time it closed up after reversing at the 50sma.
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2. GDX – If that is the dcl, I just want to remind us that
1. GDX could continue to rally from here parabolically, so this buy is a buy and hold, but
2. GDX could do what the Nasdaq did in 2000. It bounced out of a dcl and then became L.T. and double topped. If you are buying or buy and hold, I would use a stop.
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3. GDX – We could still see an overhead gap filling bounce and then a drop to the 50sma again near the Fed Day. You could still buy with a stop under the 50sma.
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We have been experiencing some turbulence, but it has been expected.
It gets tricky with that Fed Day ahead, because the expectation is for a quart point rate cut. That is usually good news and it has sparked a rally in the General Markets and in Precious Metals in the past. So what’s the problem? Well, right now we are on month 6 for the general markets, so they should be due for a dip into an intermediate cycle low. They could do a parabolic move of their own in this environment though, so we’ll have to see what happens after that fed mtg. Gold and Silver are ok time-wise, since they are on the 3rd daily cycle, but the Precious Metals do already look parabolic when you step back, so can that continue? I would say that it ‘could’, for a while anyway. Maybe as we head into the year end. Anything can happen with a bull market parabolic move. Whether your style is to be a buyer or a buy and hold with your Miners, using stops will help to lock in some gains. You can always rebuy if we drop sharply into the fed and then everything just blasts off higher. I have already seen some fast selling in several of the 5-letter Miners, so stops are a safety to protect or preserve the accounts large gains. Enjoy your Thursday trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN was rejected on day 50 at the 50sma. It is starting to bounce this morning, but a day 46 low is early for a dcl, so I would have to expect a dip into the Fed Mtg next week, as drawn here.
Bitcoin seems to be pretty clear compared to General Markets and Gold. Bitcoin looks like it will dip before the Fed (timing wise into day 60) and then rally after the Fed with a dcl in place. I want to be looking at CIFR, IREN, WULF, HUT, BITF, HIVE, etc next Monday and Tuesday for sure.
