Thursday September 11th
This Data is usually a big market mover, since it covers Inflation and the Jobless Claims (employment), but lately bad news is good news. These numbers could indicate to the markets that a rate cut is needed, and the markets have been climbing on that hope.
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SPX – The PPI inflation number came in a little lighter than expected, and this adds to the idea that the fed can cut rates. The General Markets made another new all-time high. We are now at the upper trendline though, so is the CPI number on Thursday going to cause a reaction lower? It could, unless this just crawls up and along the upper trendline until that fed meeting.
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The SOXX caught my eye with that large volume flowing in. I looked at some charts and TSEM, MU and a few others are already rallying nicely actually. I don’t know exactly what to make of it. Is it distribution or accumulation? At day 27 it could go either way. We’ll see what the Fed Rate Cut brings.
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ORCL -THIS is very unusual! A 36% pop on a large cap stock after earnings is amazing, but a deal with AI and revenue surging has caused this strong reaction. You’ll have to read the earnings report to get the whole story.
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SERV is a set up in Robotics that looks good. RR ran recently, so I thought that maybe SERV would follow, but is has been a slower move out of the lows. SERV ran swiftly from April into May and has consolidated those gains for 3 months. It has now regained the 50 & 200sma, it can be bought with a stop under the blue 50sma.
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WTIC – If this is a descending wedge, it can be viewed as bullish, but Oil is just choppy and has still been unable to recover from that breakdown of long term support in April. With lower lows since June, it also seems weak But with that said, we keep seeing the Oil stocks looking bullish…
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THE XOP broke above triple resistance at the downtrend line, and the 50 & 200sma. Now it has even successfully back-tested it this week with a bullish reversal. This looks bullish and it can be bought with a stop.
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THE USD was also weak and choppy, but over time it seems to be forming a bullish descending wedge to0. We have run out of APEX, so we’ll see what the USD does Thursday and Friday.
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GOLD has stalled over the last 2 days with pop & drop price action, but that doesn’t mean that it has stopped climbing yet. A measured move with the Triangles Pole as a measure ($500+) would have this capable of continuing higher into the Fed mtg. We’ll see, because the USD rising up out of that wedge may be what slows Gold down now as we head into the Fed. Trailing stops would work for Miners.
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SILVER is proving itself to be quite bullish, because we don’t usually see a 4th daily cycle peak on day 26 or more, but it has here. It would be nice for Silver to pull back around the Fed Mtg and then give us a deeper dcl/ICL to buy, but for now we have to wait and see how the buyers and sellers finish this dance.
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GDX – And then we have the Miners climbing higher with only a 1 day drop here and there. I really do feel that we are seeing a run up into the Fed day, and then the selling could come in earnest. For now, I would use a trailing stop. Let me explain something pertaining to what I mean when I say that you can use a trailing stop …
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When I say that, you can use a trailing stop, I am also saying that you can choose a spot that you feel you need to lock in gains. Along with that, it doesn’t mean that you have to stop out of the entire position. It can mean that you set a stop to lock in gains for 30% of your position, or you may want to stop out on 50% (Half) of your position and then let the rest ride–up or down.
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For example: Price in this steeper stage of ascent is staying above the 8ema. You could say to yourself, “If the 8 ema is broken, I want to lock in half of my position (50%) and let the rest ride.” And that 8 ema keeps climbing higher with price, so your full 100% position stays invested until that line is crossed. Again, you can choose to stop out of half, or 30%, or 70%—and then let the rest ride, which might be a drop into a dcl. You can see on this chart that the last 3 drops would NOT have stopped you out.
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We continue to see a bull run into the Fed Mtg next week so far. The General Markets made new all time highs, Gold is at all-time highs, and Bitcoin has started to move again, possibly ready to run to new all-time highs too. Enjoy your Thursday trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN is slowly rising up, but we are now right against the 50sma. It may stall. Look at the green & red arrows on this chart. The 50sma really DOES influence price for Bitcoin. That said, the RSI crossed the 50% area, the MACD crossed up too, so we are now starting to see bullish action on the charts again. The set up is bullish if this breaks out and the Cryptostocks are running. I think that Bitcoin will break higher over time.
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CAN is a nice set up in Crypto and now that it is breaking through the 50 sma, it may gain some buyers and push onward and upward.
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BTBT had a very strong run in June-July and has consolidated those gains with a descending wedge. I posted this pre-market as a buy, a lagger with volume increasing and good potential. It pushed up another 8% on Wednesday and tagged that 50sma and pulled back a little, closing up 6%. I think that it wants to break out.
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CIFR, RIOT, IREN, etc. continued their climb higher too, and the 1 day gains are great. Remember: We are watching Gold stocks like IAG, KGC, etc just run and run and run. Maybe it’s time for the crypto stocks to do the same (?), with Bitcoin starting to move higher again we could see a nice run continue in this sector too.
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IREN: Let’s just take a good look at how some of these crypto stocks are running.
IREN is up over 500% this year from April ICL lows. It is still running too, after a little choppiness. This is similar to the Gold stocks like IAG, KGC, EGO, etc. If Bitcoin breaks that 50sma, many of these stocks, including the laggers, should make another nice run higher.
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Crypto stocks could start to run like this:
EGO chopped sideways for a while, just like many of the Crypto stocks have, but now they have started a runaway type of a move.
