September 13th Weekend Report
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SPX WEEKLY – As we head toward the Fed mtg, anticipation for a rate cut has caused a lot of bullish price action, despite normal dips, like our half cycle low recently. The dips have offered buying opportunities in stocks like RKLB, AAOI, RR, SOUN, IONQ, RGTI, QS, BLDP, VNET, OKLO, MSFT, NVDA, AAPL, etc. In fact, let’s take a quick look at what we’ve been watching…
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Dips and pullbacks can lead to good buying opportunities. In the general markets I’ve discussed companies like RKLB, AAOI, IONQ, RGTI, QS, BLDP, VNET, SOUN, RR, BBAI, OKLO, MSFT, NVDA, AAPL, an more. Let’s take a quick look at what we’ve been watching…
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QS was in Thursdays comments and Fridays report as a buy. In the past it ran very quickly. Friday it opened slightly red & closed up 12.4%, so if you bought it Thursday or Friday, you’re in the money.
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RKLB has been in my reports for a while.
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AAOI has been choppy at these lows, but it’s starting to move again and forming a cup. This one makes big gains when it runs.
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MSFT had a very strong gap open and then sold off with the markets half cycle low. It is just now starting to look like a buy. Volume is swelling and it recovered the 20 ema as a buy.
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So I am still seeing great set ups, but with that in mind I will also now show you one cautionary flag. It’s not a ‘Sell signal’ or a warning, just an observation.
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SPX WEEKLY – Some of the stronger bull markets still peaked right around this time (5 months after an ICL). We currently have a Fed Mtg with a proposed rate cut that has elevated and excited the markets.
1. CAN THEY KEEP RUNNING a bit longer? Yes.
2. Could it also just be a buy the rumor of a rate cut, & then sell the news of that rate cut? It could sell down, because an ICL is coming due.
3. That other strong run in the orange box dipped for 3 weeks and then took off again. We could see that and ‘Buy those dips!’.
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WTIC WEEKLY – Oil broke down and still hasn’t had the strength to recover and hold that recovery. Oil stocks have looked bullish though, and I have had that in the weekday reports.
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USD WEEKLY #1 -The USD also broke down, back-tested the breakdown, and continued lower. It rode up along the 20 week ma and now it has been trapped below it.
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USD WEEKLY #2 – I saw that sharp crash with all of the talk about Tariffs and war in early 2025 and at first viewed that as an a-b-c down as the drop into an ICL. THAT STILL MIGHT BE WHAT WE SEE with a failing Dollar, but a failed daily cycle already dropping it to break the ICL ( lows) so soon? That seems rather weak, so…
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USD WEEKLY #3 – We could have 5 waves down into a final low (ICL). The rate cut will affect the USD and the rumor of a rate cut dropped it, so we’ll see what the USD does after the Fed this week. With the above analysis with USD charts #1 —This could go either way at this point.
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GOLD WEEKLY – Gold broke from that triangle and as mentioned in the past, triangles are ‘time consuming’ consolidations that can give us a stealth ICL. We have not been seeing really deep dipping ICLs like we used to for 2 years. That shows the kind of Bull run that Gold is in. Let’s discuss something else with Gold…
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GOLD WEEKLY – Past breaks from the triangular consolidations did not often drop and back-test. They ran, paused for 1 week or 2, and then ran again, as pointed out on this chart. We may only see a 1 week pause with the fed rate cut if we even get one, so please take a good look at this chart.
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SILVER WEEKLY – Silver is starting to slope upward. This sector looks like it is starting a runaway move and when we’ve looked at Gold Miners, you can see that they already did start running away (See IAG, KGC, EGO, etc).
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SILVER WEEKLY – What about this being the 4th daily cycle, as seen on my September 10 chart? Don’t they usually get weaker then? Yes, they ‘USUALLY’ get weaker in a 4th out of 5 daily cycles, but in a Bull run, especially if it gets overheated or exuberant…
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SILVER could very bullishly give us 6 daily cycles, and this 4th and the fifth can become the peak before we see a mild ICL, as shown here. We have already seen Silver stocks gaining strength, so ones that are slightly lagging could really run soon. Silver could run back to the highs on this run in a 4th or 5th daily cycle. Let’s look at 4 Silver stocks…
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Silver could run back to the highs, so let’s look at 4 Silver stocks…
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I had this chart of SSRM in Fridays report. It is obvious that this is a leader, running vertical before Silver.
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SSRM has been one that is leading that run higher. It is very strong as seen with the RSI reading of almost 82. So this is almost running straight up…
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HL chopped sideways in August after gapping up, but it really took off in September. That is $6 to $11, almost 100% in a month…
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HL so on this view, Hecla is definitely joining silver or leading the way too.
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AG Now we can see that AG is just starting to move, or lagging Silver, so this is a buy for a chance to play catch up. If Silver keeps running, this should launch too, possibly going vertical like SSRM.
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EXK also is ramping up, but lagging what some of the others have done, so EXK may play catch up too.
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GDX has been running with Gold and it has been a strong run, as seen on a weekly basis. I’d really like to see a pause or dip sooner than later, so that this doesn’t become a parabolic blow off top. Notice the dips in the normal run vs 6 straight green weeks in a row. This isn’t parabolic yet, so its fine as a very strong bull running higher.
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The GDX ETF did break to all-new highs, so as mentioned in past reports, we have worked our way through strong resistance areas. At this point, there has been no resistance above former highs too.
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GDX WEEKLY – A dip into an ICL over time could become a back-test of that breakout, and that would offer an excellent entry to load up at an ICL.
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GDX WEEKLY – A continuation of this rally post-fed rate cut could become a parabolic move, even a blow of top. I’d rather not see that, because those crash lower when the buying stops and sellers all head to the exits. The crash from that takes time to mend.
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The Bulls have been firmly in control, and things seem to be speeding up after the Jackson Hole speech alluded to rate cuts. This run can continue, and things could get quite euphoric, even running higher after the Fed day – or – We could also get that pullback and cool things off in the precious metals sector as it sets up for another strong run. Either way we still have bullish outcomes, but we’ll really have to wait and see how things play out on this Fed week. Bitcoin has broken higher now too, and several of the crypto stocks have been giving us rather incredible gains, others still may play catch up, so I’ll discuss that below. There are still some nice opportunities there too.
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Enjoy your weekend and thanks for being a Chartfreak with me!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN DAILY – I noted that Bitcoin bottomed when it became very late in cycle timing & then broke from the bullish descending wedge, giving us day 1. It then gained the green 20 ema and last week it gained the red 50sma, so along with this we have been buying /trading/ holding crypto stocks. Some ran well before Bitcoin as leaders, others broke last week, and some laggers like MARA and CLSK may breakout as soon as next week.
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LET’s TALK STOCKS
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I was pointing out this bullish triangle for a while in BTDR. Now that Bitcoin bottomed, it could break out and run.
BTDR was up 31% this week. Congratulations to buyers!! I feel that it is a buy and hold for now (though I know that may be tough on a fed week).
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CIFR has been a buy and hold for us for weeks, it was a real leader. We got a gift of a pullback to support with this reversal. A BUY AT $5.
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CIFR started that next leg up and I posted this as a cup & handle. It was running while bitcoin sold off, so it was a true leader. I also posted this as an inverse H&S breaking out at $7 and…
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This was that inverse H&S after the breakout.
CIFR was up 44% last week alone! $5 to $11 since that first buy, $7 to $11 from the inverse H&S breakout, but the measured move, if it fulfills, is still much higher.
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BITF had this bullish pattern forming in late August, chopping sideways as bitcoin sold off, so I recommended it as bullish & breaking out.
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BITF then dropped to that 200sma and back-tested it and started up again, so I put this in the report last week (Sept 9) with good volume pops…
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WOW! BITF SHOT UP 73% THIS WEEK!! Congratulations to buyers and traders that took this trade too! You can see how crazy these moves get.
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Hive was recommended a while back too, because it was holding up after earnings when Bitcoin was dropping lower.
HIVE WAS UP 43% THIS WEEK ALONE.
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IREN WAS UP 30% this week. but just like CIFR, IREN was a leader too, so it is up big this year. Can you believe this?? $5 to $33. I (we) have only caught portions of that move, but they were good portions.
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Remember when RIOT started to become a leader too? It had a nice base.
Well, RIOT WAS UP 20% last week and I like the volume spikes. It can run a lot more if bitcoin continues to move higher & more buyers step in. RIOT used to be (or still is) a very popular Crypto stock, so I would have to expect it to gain attention.
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MARA was extremely popular in this sector, and I have been surprised to see that it has been left behind this much (So far). I would either start a small position and add to it if it run, or just watch it every day. It actually did move higher and made 7% gains this week. That really isn’t bad, right? It just looks meager compared to the others.
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CLSK WAS UP 12% and this set up is shaping up now. Earlier in the year it ran from $6 to $14 in 3 months, but it sold off to the current lows near $9. Last weeks volume pop and 12% gain may be the signal that it will join in the run, so I’d view it as a buy.
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FROM FRIDAYS REPORT
MARA: When I look at what IREN, CIFR, and some of the others have done, I have to be a little surprised that MARA is trapped below resistance, but I do think that once it breaks above it, it could run swiftly. Why?
1. That run in June was roughly $13 to $21, and those are great gains, really
2. MARA is a popular company and I think that once it breaks higher, it will attract buyers quickly (above the 2 moving averages).
