Thursday August 7th – Jobs Report + Tariffs = ??
You may recall that todays data is what ‘spooked’ the markets last week. The markets sold off Thursday and Friday when the economy seemed to have weakened and then add to that the fact that today Trumps Tariffs go into full affect. This may be viewed as harmful, so now we’ll see if the markets can shrug that news off like a true bull market does, or are we going to start seeing more chop, uncertainty, and weakness. Let’s go to the charts…
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QQQ – I posted this chart in the morning to show that our markets did get a recovery on the 20 ema on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. So far, so good…
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THE SPX shows that our recent 4 day dip was somewhat similar to the last dcl tht lasted for only 4 days. This dip will be viewed as the dcl near day 48, so we should be on day 3 as of Wednesday. Again, today we’ll see how the markets hold up with Tariffs threatening some areas and the jobs & productivity reports. This has been a bull run out of the ICL for sure.
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WTIC – Oil sold off and now it gets a little tricky. WAs that a dcl at day 36? If so this just failed. It also is possible that we are on day 46, since some Oil daily cycles last 50+ days, but the MACD looks weak and the RSI is at 41, so Oil is choppy and weak at this point. What about those Oil stocks that were perking up?
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What about those Oil stocks that were perking up?
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THE XOP -actually broke down from that triangle last week. It then moved up and ‘back-tested’ or tagged that triangle and dropped again with Oil yesterday. The Oil stocks were up near the recent highs, but now this is looking increasingly weaker. I would now be out of oil stocks unless this begins to show signs of strength again and oil bottoms again.
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In yesterday’s report I mentioned:
The USD is churning sideways and it resembles a small bear flag, but it may not drop past this support area, since it is due for a dcl, and we are on day 26. What you will notice is that sharp drop day—matches Golds sharp Pop higher, so another drop by the USD may help Gold.
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THE USD actually did drop from that area that looked like a bear flag. So we are at day 26, due for a dcl, and at possible support of the 50sma area.
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GOLD #1: Gold is moving out of its recent dcl and is on day 5. As mentioned yesterday, the Miners are running up to new cycle highs and are stronger than gold itself, making it look as though Gold will break out higher, but so far it has not. Please read the chart, since Gold could either break out higher OR Breakdown lower due to cycle timing…
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GOLD #2 – Normally a triangle will break out higher, so we would expect something like this, especially with Miners leading the way. Please read this chart too.
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GOLD #3: Could Gold break down from a bullish triangle?
It could break down as this daily cycle grows older, and if it does it may work its way into an ICL near the 200sma. That would give us a large consolidation box.
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SILVER should be starting the 4th daily cycle and to be honest, a 4th daily cycle is usually where we see signs of weakness, as the bullish run to new highs turns to weakness and a struggle to move higher. So far, Silver does still show signs of bullishness with a reversal at the 50sma. I’m kind of expecting either a slight break to new highs (?), or a double top at the ‘#4’ area. A gradual drop to the rising 200sma could be an ICL later in time.
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GDX – Miners were chopping along the 50sma in a very choppy box consolidation. Suddenly over the past couple of days they have been acting very strong and have been breaking out higher with bullish earnings reports and bullish charts.
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KGC – You can see that the follow through buying after earnings has been excellent. When I see a move like this it is encouraging, because when the time comes for a dip into the next dcl, it can be a nice higher low, possibly simply a back test of this breakout or another box consolidation that bottoms out higher. Time will tell, but it is encouraging to finally see this kind of STRENGTH in Miners.
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YESTERDAY I SAID:
So KGC has been riding the 50sma rather faithfully and it could just get choppy above that recent consolidation and dip to the 50sma when the time comes. Miners are ‘buy the dip’ opportunities.
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SSRM – Its always good to see an Earnings report that pleased the Bulls 🙂
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So we could have an important Thursday here, with the economic data due out at 8:30 am along with the Tariffs going into affect. We should see today how the markets can handle that new wave of pressure. Hopefully we can…Enjoy our Thursday trading!
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~ALEX
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FROM WEDNESDAYS REPORT:
BITCOIN is riding above the 50sma so far, and it is oversold and due for at least a bounce. Some Crytostocks are starting to hold up despite the selling. For example…
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BITCOIN has been moving higher off of the 50sma as expected. This is a live shot of Bitcoin at 7 a.m. today.
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I really like the look of this set up for BITF. So far it has started to ride that 20ema and hopefully it can break out above the 200 sma soon. The volume here catches my eyes.
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BTBT also had stronger than normal volume, so I pointed this out yesterday at 9:31 a.m. as a buy or bullish looking crypto stock. It had just gone from red to green…
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BTBT at 11:45 am was now up 4% and looking good as it pushed away from the 200sma, 50sma, and 20ema.
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BTBT at the close was up 9% and up 11% in after hrs, so the set ups are acting in harmony with Bitcoins set up.
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WULF also looked good above the 200sma. I posted this, bought it, and it ran up, but it did sell back down as the day went on…
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WULF popped and dropped. This MIGHT be because they are due to release earnings on Friday morning. I do still like the set up, but I doubt that I will hold through earnings, based on RIOT and MARA’s drop when they released earnings.
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IREN looked good too, so I posted this before 10am. It went on to close up over 11%.
IREN ramped up intraday right after I posted that , so I then posted this to show the volume buying taking place.
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So we are seeing several Crypto-Miners starting to follow Bitcoin higher.
