Thursday August 21st – Jobless Claims
Todays DATA really does focus on the economy, so we’ll see how that all plays out.
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THE SPX dopped and bounced back, giving us a reversal candle. After taking a look at the chart a few different ways, it does seem possible that the dips will be a little bit deeper in the 3rd daily cycle.
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THE NASDAQ also dropped and tried to bounce back, giving us a reversal candle. Hopefully, todays data gives it a push in the right direction.
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WTIC – Oil has been choppy and as you can see, it is just chopping lower over time. Normally with this set up, I’d expect a bounce that tags the 50/200sma area, but even if we get that, it can then roll over and Oil would be failing again. Oil rallied sharply in June when Iran was involved in a war and supply concerns were discussed, but you don’t really hear about that anymore.
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THE USD is trying to break higher, but this small move higher didn’t affect Gold. Gold moved higher…
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GOLD tagged that lower trendline and flipped higher on day 15. Gold just doesn’t want to sell off. It could form an ICL by consolidating sideways here, breaking out higher, and then dipping to back test the triangle.
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And SILVER is resilient too. It is on day 14 of the 4th daily cycle and that gives it every excuse that it needs to sell down, but on Wednesday it lost the 50sma briefly and then recovered with conviction.
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YESTERDAYs REPORT MENTIONED THE CYCLE COUNT: I said…
Daily Cycle Count: It was a bit too choppy at the lows in June & July to know exactly which of those lows in the box consolidation is the dcl, but it has been 24 days since the last low in mid-July and 31 days since the one before it.
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GDX dropped on Tuesday, and it didn’t look very good, but then it surged higher again on Wednesday, and it looks like a longer triangle now. Was that a day 31 dcl forming in a triangle? We’ll see, but it isn’t the lowest recent low.
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GDX also turned higher right above the 20 ema.
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We had a morning slam down that gradually fought its way back. Now we look for the bulls to take control and give us some follow through buying today. The set ups look good, so we’ll see what happens after the Jobless Claims Data release at 8;30 a.m. Enjoy your Thursday trading!
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~ALEX
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I’m capturing this chart at 9 p.m. Wednesday, and BITCOIN flipped higher in a very similar manner as it did when the lows were taken out in June. That shake out was followed by a rally, so hopefully we see that here. The Miners reversed strongly after a morning slam down, and many turned green yesterday.
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Interestingly, Bitcoin did not break the low or undercut it on this chart, so on this chart we have a higher low.
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RIOT: After an initial slam down, I started to see intraday buying. At 11:20 a.m. I posted that I was seeing buying intraday, and the daily chart were starting to give us reversals. RIOT reversed right at the uptrend line.
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RIOT: Later that day I pointed out that RIOT was now up 3% and it closed up almost 5%.
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IREN: At 11:30 I also pointed out CIFR. CIFR, IREN, RIOT, HIVE, etc started to reverse and go higher.
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IREN WAS DOWN 8%! After that reversal and push higher, it closed up 5.5% and this is after being down 8%? That is a 13% move off of the lows, so these reversals do look quite convincing, but this sector can be choppy.
