Friday August 8th

No Market Moving Data is scheduled for this morning:

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NASDAQ -We see a little indecision here with a doji candle as buyers and sellers both affected the markets. This appears to be day 4 of the 3rd daily cycle.

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THE SPX also sold down, but it bounced off of the 20 ema again too.

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WTIC – With Oil we either have a failed daily cycle that broke a day 36 dcl, or this is all the second daily cycle and we haven’t reached a dcl yet. If that is the case, we’d be on day 47, but Oil did lose the 200 & 50sma, and it also has a MACD cross lower, so I look at Oil Stocks for clues too and…

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XOP – Oil stocks are not looking strong either. We have a break lower out of a triangle, a bounce to back-test it, and then more selling. Both Oil and the Oil Stocks have reached an oversold stochastics, so we’ll see if we get a solid bounce (& a dcl for Oil) or a weak bounce and more follow though selling in the near future.

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THE USD is due for a dcl and I was a little surprised to see the 50sma broken to the downside. Why? Usually an area of resistance becomes an area of support, so we’ll see if the USD bounces and puts in a dcl as a brief shakeout, but we may drop to the blue trendline, because the stochastics really isn’t oversold yet. That may help Gold to push a little higher too.

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GOLD has formed a large triangle, so we got a shortened daily cycle with the day 21 low recently nearing the apex. Today would be day 7, and you can see that Gold is only slowly chugging along higher, but we have seen the Gold Miners really ramping up quickly to new highs and beyond. Gold is not overbought, so it can continue higher.

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SILVER has reversed right at the 50sma and this would be the 4th daily cycle. I like to keep in mind that ‘surprises can come to the upside’ in a bull run, because buyers do often scoop up the dips, but also as a 4th daily cycle, it can be one that starts to show weakness and may ‘peak’ as Left Translated.  So we’ll keep that in mind.

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GDX – Miners were chopping sideways in a large Box Consolidation and then suddenly it broke out to the upside. What about that candle yesterday? A topping candle? maybe, but…

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GDX had similar candles at the top in April, but it was more of a series of candles or a topping process, so we may bump around up here and put in a daily cycle high as part of a process, we really don’t know.

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IAG – Some Miners did turn lower yesterday while others ran higher, so again, we may start to top out sooner than later. That’s not really a sell signal to everyone, but it is noteworthy. IAG released earnings last night and was down an additional 2%.

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KGC gave us a small candle after a strong run too, but I’m also pointing out that we saw that in April and it was a topping process rather than an immediate ‘peak’.

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FSM EARNINGS FAIL – With this drop, I noticed that FSM dropped with the release of its May earnings and then it just absorbed that selling and made new highs a month later. Basically, the long consolidation will probably continue for FSM and others that miss on earnings.

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It’s Friday, we have no noteworthy data being released, so enjoy your Friday trading and your upcoming weekend!

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~ALEX

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BITCOIN looks good after bouncing up and off of the 50sma, but I will mention that some crypto stocks sold off while Bitcoin was at the highs yesterday. BTBT, BITF, RIOT, etc sold off and that was odd, so we’ll see if the crypto sticks can gain buyers or not going forward.

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RIOT – Again, Bitcoin was at the highs and several crypto stocks sold off, so that is something to keep an eye on.