Friday August 22 – Jackson Hole Wyoming

This Speech by J. Powell will address the state of the U.S. Economy and may hint at interest rates going forward, so it could definitely move the markets. This speech is at 10 am ET, so all eyes on the Fed at 10 a.m. I am away Friday morning for an 8 a.m. ultrasound, but I should be able to get back by 10 a.m.

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THE SPX (General Markets) couldn’t gain any traction to give us ‘follow-through’ with Wednesdays reversal candle. Hopefully the Fed speech, which should discuss the economy and possibly rate cut probabilities, gives us some upside action.

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The USD broke out and Gold ‘dropped’ lower, but Miners actually had a nice day on Thursday.

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GOLD dropped but it did bounce off of that lower trendline again. Could the Fed Speech light a fire under Gold? The last fed Mtg was July 31, and that is when Gold last bottomed on this trendline.

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SILVER has formed a bullish triangle. This is the 4th daily cycle and we are 4 months from the ICL, so normally we have seen weakness at this time, but in a bull market. In Bull Markets, surprises can come to the upside, so it is possible that we get a ‘Fed Speech breakout’ here.  We’ll see.

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GDX – Gold was down yesterday? Notice that even though Gold was down yesterday, The Miners didn’t ‘gap down’ and recover, they started climbing right away and many Miners put in a nice day….with Gold down.

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MUX didn’t gap down with Gold selling off either.  It started to run and by the end of the first hour, it was up 6%, so I grabbed this chart. It broke a downtrend.

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EGO started to breakout on Thursday too, and again, this was with Gold down. Another bullish triangle formation.

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HMY is a nice-looking 3-month consolidation that could form a large cup if it continues to rally to $18. It reversed at support 2 days ago.

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NGD has been on fire ever since they released the earnings in late July. This has been one of my favorites in 2025 and it just reached 10 year highs (2016 rally highs).

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THM caught my eye as it reversed off of the 34 sma…again. Again, this was with Gold down and it has been in a nice trend higher this year. As long as they don’t need to do the dreaded offering, this trend can continue. It closed up 6.6%.

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We have the General Markets sitting on support so far, looking for a trigger for buyers to step in. We’ll see if Chairman Powells speech is helpful or not. Gold was down yesterday, but the Miners ignored both Gold & the general markets and decided to push higher on their own. Silver pushed higher too and that was definitely a surprise to the upside. Crypto Miners tried to hold up as Bitcoin fell to new lows again yesterday, so I’ll discuss that below too. I think that a major event today is that morning speech from Jackson Hole, since Powell will likely discuss the economy, future expectations, and the likelihood of a rate cut (or not) may be discernable, even though he may not come right out and say it. Most charts look set up to move higher, but it’s Jackson Hole Friday, so we’ll see how that all plays out. Enjoy your Friday trading!

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~ALEX

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BITCOIN made a new low on Thursday, but it is reversing at that support area again. Bitcoin was down quite a bit during the day, but many of the Crypto Stocks were only down 1-3%, so that may be a sign that the miners are leading, and bitcoin may move higher soon.

 

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BITCOIN 2 hr chart:  On the intraday charts we have a downward trending channel. As of 11 P.M. we are back at the top of that upper trendline. A breakout of that trendline could give us the buying that we need. That Jackson Hole Speech may help or hurt this chart too.

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BITCOIN 2 hr chart:  I was going to release the report last night because I have an appointment this morning, but I didn’t quite finish it, so here is an update on the Bitcoin chart. Bitcoin has started to pullback from that downtrend over the last 2 hours, but I do see some MACD divergence, so hopefully the Fed Speech can push this higher and break that downtrend. If it does, I think that the Crypto stocks will benefit.