August 23rd Weekend Review
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Using a daily chart we were on day 15 Friday when The SPX was on support awaiting the Fed Speech from Jackson Hole. After basically guaranteeing a rate cut in September and maybe another before the year ends, all of our bullish sectors took off higher and closed near the highs of the day. This is a beautiful chart and the markets should continue higher next week.
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USD WEEKLY – The USD lost support, ran up and back-tested it, and then dropped without a recovery. It still has not been able to recover that area.
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THE USD DAILY: The USD did the exact opposite of what the bullish sectors did with the announcement of rate cuts, and it may continue to show weakness. This looks ready to fail. When The USD drops, Gold usually ‘pops’, right?
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TAKE A QUICK LOOK AT THE FED REACTION:
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GOLD popped with the rate cut and after churning sideways like this, it may have build up a good amount of energy for a breakout and run.
1. I have repeatedly mentioned that I marked the ICL in May, because that drop in April came from a very R.T. Daily cycle.
2. After that 10 day rally in April, Gold was L.T. and it dropped in an a-b-c manner, so this is only 3 months ahead of the ICL and it can (& might) run like it did in April.
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The WEEKLY GOLD CHART has been a very bullish looking 5-month triangular consolidation. In fact…
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In fact, the rally out of the Nov low rallied for 5 months (into April), so if Gold repeats that, we could rally from May to early October.
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GOLD – We also could see a quick burst of energy and rally for a couple of weeks and then drop and back-test that break out as an a-b-c down ICL. We just have to let it play out, but I really view this set up as quite Bullish.
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SILVER also popped and this is a 4th daily cycle for Silver. Even though it is a 4th daily cycle and they USUALLY start to show weakness, the recent price action and environment could give us 5 or 6 shorter daily cycles, with 4 strong ones. Let me show you something that goes along with that idea…
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SILVER has had shorter daily cycles and now on day 16 it put in a new daily cycle high. That already makes Silver look like the 4th will be R.T. and show strength. Silver is not overbought and will likely break out to new highs above daily cycle #3.
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GDX was looking somewhat similar to Gold, but it took off higher recently, leading the way as it broke out from that consolidation.
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GDX WEEKLY – This recent rally in GDX has finally pushed it to new all-time highs.
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The Bulls are running on wall Street and hopefully we see some nice follow through buying next week. We really should with these set ups and the hope of rate cuts ahead.
Enjoy your weekend!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN WEEKLY – Bitcoin dropped early last week, but it also rallied sharply with the Fed Speech, so we have a reversal for a weekly candle. I have discussed the 4 year cycle recently, and it does allow for a rally going forward. To show you that, allow me to review that 4 year cycle using a basic view that is easy to follow. The Monthly chart…
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BITCOIN MONTHLY –
1. Bitcoin peaked on November 2013
4 years later
2. Bitcoin peaked on December 2017
4 years later
3. Bitcoin peaked on November 2021
4 years later
4. Bitcoin should peak on October, November, or December 2025?
It’s not an exact science, but you cannot help but see that Bitcoin peaks every 4 years and then it crashes every 4 years, so we would have to expect a repeat to the pattern to be safe.
