August 16th Weekend Review
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SPX WEEKLY – The markets moved higher again this week and are now at new all-time highs again too. This has been a bullish move out of the V-Bottom ICL, so also take a look at the move out of the V-Bottom at the end of 2023. This is a weekly chart, so you can see how that rally lasted for 5 months before we got another ICL, and this one may too.
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WTIC WEEKLY – Oil broke down through long term support in March/April of this year (green line). It then recovered with a surge higher as a war in Iran took place and progressed. Oil stopped at the upper trend line and right now we don’t hear much about that situation in Iran. With that war dying down, it seems that Oils surge has also died down. Oil has dropped lower and lower until it broke below that long term support again and that is where Oil is today. It has become weak and choppy again.
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USD WEEKLY – The USD broke down & lost support in April. It then bounced a few times, yet it is still trapped under the support that has now become resistance. This choppiness can continue.
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USD WEEKLY – Zooming in we see that the 10 week ma was acting as resistance too. The USD regained it 2 weeks ago, but it has dropped lower again and is now bouncing around it and even closed under it again. That & the fact that the USD is below resistance seems to show weakness, and that is why I said that this choppiness may continue for a while longer. We do have a MACD cross though.
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GOLD WEEKLY – Gold is in a long sideways choppy triangular consolidation. These are often bullish when they break out, and I’m wondering if this will hide a stealth ICL.
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SILVER WEEKLY – Silver is on the 4th daily cycle out of the ICL, as seen in the weekday reports. I am now seeing a channel that it has developed on the way higher, and price is also bouncing off of the red 10 week ma too. It is a bullish set up, but if we get a ‘Normal’ ICL drop, Silver could tag the 30 week ma (like it did in Aug 2024. That would be a dip to $34.
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GDX WEEKLY – The Miners have been strong and with Gold and Silver both dropping lower, Miners remain at the highs. Some individual miners have done excellent as they released their earnings reports (we discussed some in the weekday reports). We are at an upper trendline now, so…
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IF MINERS start to drop into an ICL soon, they could also drop to that blue 30 week ma. That would be a normal dip in a bull market to the lower trend line and 30 week ma near the $50 area. GDX is at an upper trendline now.
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And week after week, even with the dips, the bulls reamin in control 🙂 There are 2 sectors with coverage below. Enjoy the rest of your weekend! 🙂
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~ALEX
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Before we go to BITCOIN:
I just wanted to briefly discuss how we all saw the MJ Stocks TAKE OFF higher when Trump mentioned possibly reclassifying the degree of harmfulness as less harmful. Some of those stocks ran up 30-50% or more and I mentioned that I don’t like to chase them, I like to wait for a pull back.
We may be starting that process now, so I just want to point to a couple of charts here and what we might want to look for going forward. FOR EXAMPLE:
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ACB popped higher for 4 days, but at the end of this week it started to pull back. I know if trumps administration mentioned a reclassification, we would likely see this continue higher, but if it pulls back slowly day after day as drawn here, we could look for a drop back down to the 50 & 200sma for support. That may offer an entry.
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CGC popped up around 80%, but it reversed on Tuesday and started to drop for the rest of the week. It is actually almost at the 50sma already, so it could land there and bounce around, finding support in that area.
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TLRY also put in a reversal on Thursday and dropped another 7% on Friday Morning, when I captured this chart. It closed down almost 13% Friday, so you can see how the buying frenzy has slowed down for now and the profit taking may be kicking in. Again, this price path is just a guess based on what I have seen in the past, but if Trump doesn’t make that announcement soon, a pullback to the 200sma could become a buying opportunity.
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So this is just an idea of how the MJ Sectors pull back might play out. If Trump mentions a reclassification, these could just take off higher from here, but if the situation lingers, the drop can continue.
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BITCOIN WEEKLY – We had a reversal candle at the end of the week, so this may pull back further, but some Crypto Stocks are actually acting well, while others are on the weaker side. WULF, HUT, CIFR, and IREN looked good above the 50 & 200sma, MARA, RIOT, BTDR, etc seem to be lagging under the 200sma. HIVE released earnings and looks like it might start to perform better.
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IREN was up Friday with Bitcoin selling off.
I HAD THIS IN FRIDAYS REPORT:
And CIFR did not drop yesterday either. It rallied very strongly in June-July and then pulled back to the 50 & 200sma. Reversing at that support after that strong rally is a buy, but especially when I see bitcoin crash down and then I see CIFR rise up 8.5% it gets my attention.
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It held up on Friday after a morning dip, with Bitcoin selling off. The good ones went red to green.
