Wednesday July 9th
We have what could be some market moving DATA at 2 p.m. with the Fed Minutes being released, and the Jobless Claims may affect thing on Thursday. It may be a positive effect or it could cause choppiness. I’ll explain why…
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SPX – The markets are entering the time when a dcl drop can begin. The Fed Minutes may give this a pop and then a drop later(?), or we could start to chop lower. The last drop into a dcl was mild and only lasted for 4 days, but usually they last a little longer than that. In fact, the markets can become choppy and drop over time with choppiness, so things may become choppy going forward.
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THE USD has been rising out of a low, but it may find resistance at the 20 ema, the downtrend line, or the 50sma.
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WTIC – Oil crashed and then it looked to be forming a bear flag above the green 50sma, but that sideways chop has started to move higher and reached the 200sma as possible resistance. Oil usually trades over 40 days and this is only day 25, so there is plenty of time for Oil to chop or drop. It looks like this will be a day 15 L.T. second daily cycle.
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GOLD dropped on Tuesday and this choppiness is exactly what I was afraid of when I pointed out the weak looking MACD weeks ago. We had some beautiful chart set ups in the Miners on Monday, but yesterdays price action was concerning to me. Gold lost the 50sma again, but is supported at that magenta downtrend (so far).
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Gold lost the 50sma again, but is supported at that magenta downtrend (so far). My concern is that with this choppiness, we could see a L.T. daily cycle peak and then just continue to chop sideways in more of a consolidation phase, rather than a rally phase. It may NOT happen that way, but Miners really didn’t look right yesterday and I will show that shortly.
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SILVER dropped and bounced back, so this looked fine, but the Silver miners dropped and closed by the lows. They did NOT look good and I know that because I added to a few with the reversal on Monday. We’ll discuss that next with GDX and a couple of miners…
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GDX – So Gold dropped slightly and Silver dropped and bounced back, but the Miners sold off sharply, in my opinion. This is supposed to be day 6 and even though it held at the 50sma so far, I have concerns with the set up here too, as volume surged and it came 3 cents from breaking the prior lows.
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Do you remember my chart of NGD from yesterdays report? This is a very nice consolidation, and I bought more with this reversal on Monday. I said…
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NGD held the 20 ema, formed a bullish megaphone, and hardly pulled back at all. It’s a very nice chart as long as they don’t mess it up with an Offering or some other price dropping news.
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NGD – High volume selling and a MACD that curled down is a bit concerning to me. Again, I’m not calling out a crash or anything, but the Miners here could do as we saw with the Crypto Miners. Let me show you…
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The Gold & Silver Miners could GET CHOPPY and do what we saw with the Crypto Miners, for example. Take a look at MARA in the purple box…
So we could look at this as a first daily cycle, then a long second one that was choppy and very frustrating, before it finally broke out higher (in what could look like a 3rd daily cycle).
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So this was CDE on Monday and again, it was beautiful, and I added. It closed up 4% after riding the blue 34 sma. THIS LOOKED GREAT, RIGHT?
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CDE continues with the chop. And remember, Silver dropped and almost recovered with a bounce, but this is CDE at the close. No bounce here.
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This was my chart of EXK for Mondays trading. Again, this looks like a constructive choppy V-Pattern or something. So how did it do yesterday when Silver dropped and bounced back?
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EXK – This drop on Tuesday also didn’t bounce back when Silver did and the MACD didn’t make new highs when price did, so I have to admit that I am concerned that these Miners may have good days and bad days and continue with this choppiness.
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Today we have the release of the Fed minutes, so we’ll see if that has any effect on the general markets (which are due for dip into a dcl at any time, it could start now or it could start next week), and we’ll also see if the precious metals markets can rally up and remain choppy rather than breaking down. I WILL BE AWAY FOR 4 DAYS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. I will still have the reports each morning, but I will NOT be trading during the day at all, and I will not be in the comments, so I may lighten up and start over next week. I have had good trades in RKLB, DNA, ENVX, etc, lately, but with the general markets possibly due for a dip and with the choppiness in Precious Metals right after I added to positions, it may be best for me to go to the sidelines or cut positions by 50 to 80% and just reinvest when I get back in front of my computer. We’ll keep an eye on things as the week goes forward.
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN has been choppy and we expected this. So with that, I would say that this will remain choppy, but it would be nice if this broke out higher, broke out to new highs, and then back-tested that break out for day 60. We could then see the next intermediate cycle rally to new highs. I discussed the 3 yrs of the 4 year cycle in the weekend report. You can review that if needed. Crypto stocks have been choppy, but started to break higher recently too, some much stronger than others.
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BITCOIN has that failed daily cycle at day 17, and we are near day 30 now, so we may continue to chop sideways up near the highs, and then drop later as an inverse H&S. That would be a dcl, and then we could breakout with the next I-Cycle. The MACD is slowly improving with the chop.
