Tuesday July 1st

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SPX – The markets are obviously bullish and are now at new all-time highs. This 2nd daily cycle ‘could’ peak at any time, but I just wanted to point out that the first daily cycle didn’t peak until day 30. This 2nd daily cycle is only on day 23, so this can continue to go higher before a dip into a dcl takes place.

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DNA – I love these bases and consolidations that have formed , so I pointed out DNA last week as it bounced off of the 200sma (bullish)…

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DNA – was up 5% later that day…

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DNA ‘paused’ on Friday closing slightly red, but it was up 20% at one point today. It can keep running higher, similar to what we are seeing with BBAI…

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BBAI seems to pause every other day, but the up days are dominant and we saw BBAI up over 20% at one point on Monday. Notice that we were buyers of BBAI as it broke from that bullish wedge/triangle…

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SOUN was pointed out last week for that reason and today it popped 10% at one point. BBAI ran swiftly after leaving the wedge/base, maybe SOUN can too!

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I also pointed out these triangle consolidations in Quant stocks.

These are HARD TO ‘BUY AND HOLD’ due to daily price fulgurations, but often worth the headache. This was my chart of IONQ last week as it was about to breakout…

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IONQ – Notice that it broke out and then back tested and chopped, but it did pop 8% by 10 a.m. Monday morning. This may be starting to run to prior highs too.

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RGTI: So today I pointed out what could be the ‘next one’ to leave the wedge behind. I like that this one is riding the 50sma. If this ran to the January high of $21.42, it would be roughly a 100% move.

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RGTI: did end up breaking out and closed up 7%. It MIGHT pop and drop and back test that wedge like IONQ did, but it doesn’t have to. If it does back test & then reverses higher, that would be another buy opportunity. So this was also a buy right here.

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QUBT has been bouncing off of the 20 ema and this is also hard to buy & hold, but you can see that as long as it stays bullish, the up days outperform the down days. QUBT put in an 11% day on Monday.

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I just want to mention a sidenote here:  At the ICL I mentioned that buying NVDA, NFLX, GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, etc would pay off, and NVDA and NFLX certainly do look awesome, but TSLA, GOOG,  and AAPL are really acting like laggers.  Is it time?

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AAPL has only chopped sideways since the move out of the ICL. It is breaking from a wedge now too, and broke out above the 50sma. Volume pops are present, so this may now be ready to go, but I personally like the stocks like BBAI, SOUN, RGTI, DNA, etc that may double. AAPL needs to run to $400 to double. It may do that over time, but former highs were $250.

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WTIC – Oil surged, crashed, and may be putting in a floor here or a bear flag. The XOP looks like a bear flag under the 200sma, so I’ll leave this sector alone for now.

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THE USD is selling off, and that may continue too. That should help the Precious Metals sector, which POSSIBLY found a dcl on Monday.

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GOLD opened down and slowly climbed higher to give us a reversal. You can buy reversals with a stop, but we are so close to DCL timing that this could be the low.  CAN YOU BELIEVE that this ended up being another back-test of the breakout from the downtrend line?  A perfect back-test. When I saw that, I couldn’t believe it. This is well within the timing for a dcl, and Gold and Silver stocks did move higher too.

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SILVER has been chopping sideways, but notice that it has been basically holding on to the recent gains, and that is different for Silver. Usually when it sells off into a dcl, it slams down or even crashes, so Silver looks good to me. I thought that we’d see a back test of support at the $34 area, but it is holding up at the 20 ema.

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I also mentioned that it was possible that The GDX could lose the 50sma like it did on the last 2 dcls, but honestly, we are in the timing for a dcl, and this could be it. We aren’t completely oversold, so it can drop again, but I think that taking positions is important just in case we get a bullish surprise to the upside. At day 30, we could add on any dips at day 32 or so if this isn’t the dcl.

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I think at one time or another we all look back and wish we did a buy & hold despite the choppiness, right? Well, speaking of that, let’s very briefly, quickly, discuss AU.

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AU – Did you know that at one time AU was $6 and then $11 pre-Covid? It was EXTREMELY CHOPPY, all miners were, but never-the-less, it has moved from $6 to $51 over time. In 2025 alone, it is up 130%, since most of the gains are coming in the Gold parabolic run, so despite this choppiness that you can see on just a 6 month chart, AU ran up 130%.  I say this because if I buy on day 30 and it drops to a dcl on day 32, I should still be alright in the long run, right?  🙂

 

Gold was down on Monday for much of the day, but this is what I saw KGC do all day long. It started moving up out of the low Friday and that move continues all day long.

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I know that I keep showing NGD, but what I am trying to point out is that some Miners dropped a lot as the dcl approached, while others that recently turned bullish just chopped sideways. This is a sign of strength, and likely a nice buy in the 20ema area. I’ve been adding to it.

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ASM is also similar to NGD (so far). The 20 ema has acted as support and it was up 5% on Monday. In fact…

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In fact, many of the Silver stocks are holding up well enough that holding through the dcl has been easier than in the past. Silver stocks used to crash when it came time for a dcl, but we do see strength now.

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EXK is a bull flag and held up at the 20ema 5 days ago. EXK has a target of $6.50, but it can extend further than that if Silver runs strongly.

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As you can see, the Bulls are still running in several sectors. As a reminder for U.S. traders, we only have 2 and a half days of trading left this week in the U.S., since the markets close early on Thursday and are closed on Friday for the 4th of July holiday. Enjoy your Tuesday trading!

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~ALEX

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IN THE WEEKEND REPORT I DISCUSSED BITCOINS CHOPPINESS. I will re-post my thoughts here, but it is important to note that as Bitcoin chops along, Crypto stocks are moving higher.

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BITCOIN was also showing us (on the daily chart) a run higher where the MACD was not confirming it, so I  called for choppiness and that is what we have. When that ends with the end of this cycle, we could still run higher to that $120,000-$130,000 target that I have had for months.  I drew that possibility here and we do have time in 2025 for that to happen.

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Interestingly, as time moves forward for BITCOIN, we reached the top of this channel. This could be a double top where the run ends, similar to what you see in 2021, however a run to $120,000 would also bring us there 1 more time. We DO have enough time left in 2025 to make 1 more run in the 3rd year though, so as always, I will be reporting on this in the daily reports as well as future weekend reports, along with the crypto stocks like RIOT, CIFR, IREN, MARA, CLSK, HUT, WULF, etc etc ..

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BITCOIN was Red on Monday, and it turned lower right at the trendline that we have been monitoring. I THINK THAT IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE that many Crypto stocks were up nicely again.

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.RIOT – Was rising in the first hour, so I posted this chart after 10:30 am and mentioned that crypto stocks were up with Bitcoin down. Riot went on to Close up over 7%

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CIFR closed up over 12% and was even higher midday.