Thursday July 10th

I will be away for 4 days, but even though I won’t be trading or commenting in the comments area, I will still have the daily report for Thursday and Friday. The weekend report will be out as soon as I have time to put it together, but that may not be until Monday morning.  I’ll try to get it out Sunday night, but if not, it’ll be out by 7 or 8 Monday morning. Thanks!

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SPX – The Fed Minutes really didn’t affect the markets and the General Markets continued higher after a 2 day ‘pause’. A dcl may be mild again, only back testing the break to new all-time highs. USUALLY, we see a dcl…

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USUALLY, we see a dcl in the next 10 days, but think about it–that is 2 weeks of trading. Let’s look at The Nasdaq…

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NASDAQ – The first daily cycle was 33 days long, and they often run 35-40or so in length. We are now on day 33, so we say that it can dip at any time. If the Jobless claims report pushes this higher, we may not dip until late next week (say day 40 or so). Afterall, these are bullish markets.  Check out the charts of RKLB, SOFI, ENVX, NVDA, UBER, GRPN, MSFT, MU, AMD, etc etc. since the April ICL. There are many more, and AAOI, LMND, etc are starting to play catch up too.

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THE USD actually does seem to be slightly doing the inverse of Gold lately. When the USD ran up in July, Gold chopped slightly lower. The USD paused on Wednesday at resistance and Gold did push a bit higher.

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GOLD is not a ‘bad’ set up at all, but it has been choppy and it could remain a little choppy too. Notice however, that Gold is approaching the uptrend line (blue). That may be support. The chop is similar to what Bitcoin has done, but Bitcoin eventually worked its way back up to the highs again, and Gold can too.  The goal is a consolidation to digest recent gains and then continue higher.

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SILVER #1 – Silver was Red Wednesday, but Silver stocks reversed and made good gains.

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SILVER #2 – Silver is also at the uptrend line. Please read the chart.

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GDX also reversed higher. We really want to see a push higher through that upper trend line.

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ASM is breaking to new highs, and this is one that I have really enjoyed the performance of.

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Do you remember how Monday saw EXK push to a new high, then it slammed down Tuesday? Well, EXK rallied Wednesday (while Silver was down). It held the 20 ema on a closing basis.

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AG looked ugly on Tuesday, but it flipped higher on Wednesday too. So at this point, we had an unexplainable flush out day on Tuesday, and buyers stepped in again on Wednesday.   I HATE choppy markets, but so far most of these consolidations are still holding up at the highs.

 

I want to go back to the clean energy sector. We talked about PLUG, BLDP, FCEL, CLNE, CHPT, etc in the recent past. The set ups and bases in this area do look bullish, so I mentioned it in the commenting section and did buy on Wednesday. I wrote this in the commenting section after mentioning it earlier too, with a FCEL bullish set up.. 

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FCEL had some very strong moves in May and June and now it is landing right at the 50sma, so this would be a good buy with a stop, especially since it is now oversold. This is a buy & hold with a stop.

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FCEL is also a wedge pattern that has broken out.

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OPTT is cheap, it was a 53-55 cent stock. It regained the 50sma and has chopped along that area as it curls upward. I like a chart like this, but there is the danger that it is cheap and needs to raise money (an offering), but a smallish position may pay off. Look at the price action in November and December.

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IN MAY & JUNE I MENTIONED PLUG< FCEL, etc: In May PLUG was gaining volume in a base and ready to break that 50sma…

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PLUG then POPPED 30%.  Where is it today, one month later?

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PLUG ran up, pulled back to the 20ema, and has now attacked the 200 sma, so the sector is gaining attention.  That is why I like the FCEL chart, the CLNE, BLDP, GEVO, etc charts. They are making (choppy) progress as a sector at the moving averages. And that is why…

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They are making (choppy) progress as a sector at the moving averages. And that is why FCEL was mentioned in May at the 50sma and now on the back test it still looks good to me. 

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The bulls are really still in control. We’ve seen some choppiness in the Precious Metals sector, but the Bulls remain in control, since it seems to be that we are in a choppy consolidation. The General Markets climb up, pause, and continue higher, but a dcl will come due soon. They can be mild and brief, and I’m seeing so many bullish set ups and charts that I think the dcl will end up being rather mild when it comes into play. Bitcoin actually Popped yesterday, so I will cover that below. Enjoy your Thursday trading and please feel free to post comments and thoughts about anything that you see that you want to share in trading.

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~ALEX

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BITCOIN shot up higher toward the end of the day. It was almost like it reacted to the Fed Minutes, but it actually made a new high!  The problem? Crypto stocks had a mild reaction, where some remained red and others moved up 3-5%.

1. MAYBE ON THURSDAY (while I’m gone 🙁 ) The Crypto Stocks will rally?

2. Or do they know that this is just going to be a false breakout, before the REAL breakout comes later?  Time will tell.

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MARA has been choppy, but it finally broke through the 50sma last week. Yesterday it popped 5% so as a lagger to IREN, CIFR, etc, it may be ready to trend higher.