Friday July 25th – Weekends Start With Friday
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SPX – I see no market moving data being released today but yesterday was a small ‘pop and sell’ day. It was a slight period of selling, but it could continue since ‘Price’ has moved away from the 20 ema. It tends to run and then move back to the 20ema (sideways or down). Other than that observation, it has been a bullish week out of the dcl and the volumes accompanied the move.
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I just wanted to point out what I said about DNA in the comments after the first hr of trading yesterday. DNA has reached a possible resistance area and ‘sellers’ may start to take profit, so if I was heavy, I might consider locking in some gains. I will add this here though-these have been running straight up and continuing too, so you can use a trailing stop on the rest and hope we don’t get a large gap down (or just sell, take you money, and call it a great trade). 🙂
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OKLO was pointed out with the reversal at the 20ema Tuesday and look how these extend higher, OKLO, SMR, NNE, and LTBR did well yesterday.
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QSI BASE – I like as it ran the 50sma and formed this long consolidation/ base, so I posted this yesterday as a buy (buy & hold may work, though it could remain choppy). I said…
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OILs CYCLE COUNT is Obscure / uncertain – Let’s discuss Oil.
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OIL can have a dcl form on day 35 or day 51, we’ve seen both in the past, right? So we might have the small box as a complete dcl and a surge in the 2nd, or a very r.t. first with a day 51 dcl. That affects current cycle count, we could be on day 36 or day 20. Either way, however, Oil can bounce. One way is that we are at a day 36 possible dcl, or a half cycle low on day 20, so for now I’ll just say…
“Please read the chart for 2 possible cycle counts, and either way Oil may bounce here at the 50sma“.
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OIL JUNE 27 WEEKEND REPORT: We saw the shakeout recover, so I now ask…
Has Oil completely recovered from that long-term break down that I’ve been pointing out? If it moves higher now, it looks like it might be a recovery, and I’ll cover that in the weekend report.
Oil stocks are set up for that bounce. Notice that The XOP formed a wedge at the 50sma, so it is a buy with a stop in this area. If it breaks that wedge upside, Oil is likely going higher for a while. Oil may have the recovery in progress.
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WTI resembles Oil and it is right at the 50sma, so it can be a buy too, if you like this sector. This has a huge rally of well over 100% when Oil shot up too.
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APA has a wedge of its own and again, If Oil breaks higher, this wedge could break to the upside. Is Oil turning the corner from that breakdown of support? The weekend report will have to cover that.
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BTE already broke out from a wedge. It was a lagger, still at the lows, but it is heading for the 200sma now after riding along the 50sma. You can see that these Oil stocks were beaten down, but are now trying to form bases and recover too.
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NOG remains somewhat near the lows too, but the recent sideways chop has been progressive with the MACD rising up and price forming a bit of a sloppy wedge too. If Oil runs, these can try to reach prior 2025 highs.
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PUMP is still at the lows pretty much too, but it just regained the 50sma and the MACD is strong. Could this run from $6 to the former highs of $11 over time? It can if Oil is recovering. So far it has been a rough ride, but that can change.
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So you can see the basing out, the consolidation after a slam down, and the start of a good set up possibly forming now in Oil stocks.
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The USD is bouncing and Gold has started to drop. That inverse relationship may be taking hold again.
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GOLD LIVE 6 a.m. – Gold dropped from the ‘triple top’ peak on Wednesday, Thursday, and this is Friday morning. It is day 19, so we may see Gold chop around here for a week or so to get to a dcl. It can chop higher or lower at times. I drew a trendline and supports , with Gold at the 50sma now.
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SILVER LIVE 6 a.m. – Silver has held up better and actually looks to be inside of a rising wedge. To be honest, a ‘rising wedge’ can break down easier than a bullish falling wedge, as buyers dry up and then profit takers lock in gains. This is day 23, so even though we can see ‘surprises to the upside’, we need to recognize that the timing is getting late too.
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GDX – As pointed out yesterday, GDX has a box consolidation and may head to the lower levels.
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Bulls are in control, but some sectors may be due for a dcl(precious metals), and others may be ready to rise up (oil). Enjoy your Friday trading and weekend!!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN dropped overnight and broke the 20 ema. I expected a breakout higher, and that CAN still happen, but…
There has been something on my mind this entire time pertaining to cycle count and now is the time to address it. Many of you may have been wondering the same thing. “Where are we?” Do you remember our perfect day 59 low? See the chart…
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BITCOIN – I discussed that 1 day breakdown and recover as ‘tricky’. Please read the chart now before reading 1,2,&3. With that breakdown & recovery…
1. We have a new low at day 76?? Seems odd. See the chart, Or
2. We did a false breakdown on day 17 and we quickly recovered.
3.THIS AFFECTS OUR CYCLE TIMING PERTAINING TO WHERE ARE WE NOW?
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BITCOIN – So if that was a day 76 DCL, then we would now only be on day 33, this would be a half cycle dip today. That would be bullish for a continuation higher.
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BITCOIN – However, if that day 17 was a shakeout and we just continue our count from day 59, today is a dip on day 50. We should know soon enough, but …
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We should know soon enough, but this always happens heading into a weekend!
Will this sell off into a day 60 dcl over the weekend?
Or will this reverse here at the 20 ema and run higher over the weekend? I do not have the clear answer, but I will say this: The MACD is about to cross lower and the stochastics is midpoint and could drop to the stochastic 20 oversold mark, so this honestly can go either way right now based on cycle counts. The question is how much position size to hold (if any) over the weekend when faced with this current set up?
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A dip into a day 60 dcl also may actually be the better outcome, since we would then be on an early count to make the run higher and maybe $150,000 could be reached. That dip may tag the 50sma at $110,000 and back test the consolidation breakout, so that isn’t really ugly. Only time will tell though, but STAY FROSTY going into the weekend.
