June 7th Weekend Report

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THE SPX WEEKLY CHART is a very bullish set up and is almost back to the former highs. We have a V-Bottom ICL and it remains similar to the bull run that came from the ICL fears of the Covid crash.  Buyers in April (us) have raised stops along the way using daily charts and are making good gains. That can continue…

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THE NASDAQ hit the resistance area at the time that a dcl was due. The DCL was very mild, lasting 1 week, and now it is powering through the resistance in a second daily cycle. Notice that the Nasdaq is also approaching former highs.

 

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THE SOXX should still be considered a buy. I had recommended it (& semiconductor stocks like AMD, MU, TSEM, etc) as a lagger a while back and it is still trying to play catch up to also get back up to the former highs. It is now set to break the downtrend line and volume has increased. This is s buy.

 

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WTIC – Oil still has not recovered from that crash down ICL, it has chopped sideways and then higher. It was up 6.55% this week and in last weeks report I declared it a buy with Oil stocks, since the Oil stocks really started to perk up nicely. I cannot tell if this will break above the downtrend over time, but I think that it should break back above $65 and get into that apex soon.

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The Weekly USD Chart should be showing us an ICL and now a higher low dcl, which I pointed out last weekend and also this week using daily charts. The question was whether or not Gold could move higher with the USD. It did earlier this year, so we may see that again.

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GOLD WEEKLY: Gold is giving us a bullish chop again, but notice that the weekly chart tagged the trendline and then dropped. That gave us a reversal candle.

1. I cannot help but notice that The USD has formed a reversal at the lows, and now Gold has a reversal at the highs.

2. We saw Silver BUSRT higher this week and yet Gold was choppy, and that may continue with this set up.

3. Take a look at the blue lines. Gold likes to consolidate and chop sideways above the green line before each strong rally.

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SILVER surged 9% this week and is following that pattern that I pointed out with Platinum. We accumulated Silver stocks before the breakout as a result and were strongly rewarded this week. We are hoping for follow through now. I’ll show you why it is very possible that we could see follow though…

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SILVER has been very choppy as it pushed through that yellow heavy resistance area, but now 2 things can change from here.

1.  That resistance is becoming much lighter as we move higher into the pink area, as seen on the long-term chart. Silver can run swiftly through lighter resistance, and

2. As Buyers see Silver taking off now, they may want to start buying any dips or adding to positions.  That also could help to push price to former highs.

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GDX DAILY: The GDX dropped with Gold on Friday day 16. So far we have a day 15 peak, and that could give us a R.T. Daily Cycle, because…

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The last 2 daily cycles for the GDX were both only 26 days long. So if Gold gets choppy and the GDX follows it, we could see a choppy period with a mild dcl, as drawn here by me. This is just an idea based on Golds set up. GDX may also push higher and then pull back, but it really hasn’t followed Silver stocks. The SILJ does that.

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SILJ DAILY: That is quite a difference between the GDX and SILJ, so our switch to Silver Stocks paid off.

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So while GDX and several Gold stocks had minor gains, Silver stocks took off.

AG was up 34%! EXK was up 24%, HL up 21%, And some of the smaller 5 letter explorers/miners were up big too. AAGFF was up 24%, VZLA was up 19% and most of this was on top of gains over the last 2-3 weeks too.

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The Weekly Chart for The GDX ETF also has another reversal candle, but in the past some of these had short drops(see the blue arrows). Gold and the GDX may get choppy before pushing higher. We’d like to see the GDX break out above this upper channel and continue higher.

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The question of ‘should I sell to lock in good gains’ comes up from time to time, especially after those gains are in place and things look extended. I want to simply show you something that may help. We have all made gains and given some back, so selling a portion is one way of locking in gains and that is fine. Under certain conditions, however, like if we start a runaway bull run, selling everything & trying to get back in can be difficult if the pull backs are shallow. Let me show you what I mean, since it is possible, as noted above, that Silver may be ready to run through an area of light resistance soon.

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CDE made this nice rally and

1. The RSI is overheating.

2. It had been overbought for weeks, according to the stochastics, and a run from $1.60 to $5 gave tremendous gains.  I almost tripled my money!   DO I SELL EVERYTHING AT $5, and buy the next big dip??

 

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CDE dipped for 1 day, and then put in a reversal day and ran to $16 over the course of 4 more months. It had small dips and choppy times, but where would you have bought back into a full position after that sell?  Maybe at $6? We saw it dip in the month of May, but only to a higher price of $7? So it MIGHT be best to sell some if you want to and ride a small basket of miners through the choppy days ahead.

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FSM has a strong rally right now and I was tempted to sell this week and lock in $5.50 to $7.50 as it gets extended.  Yes, this can pull back, but I looked back at the strong rally in April 2024. FSM dropped just a little and then formed a pennant to consolidate. It then took off again. So maybe selling some to lock in gains if you are heavily positioned is a good idea, but allowing a basket of Miners to ride through the chop is also a good idea with the current Silver set up. I could re-buy the pennant if it formed now.

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With the slam down sell off into the ICL of April 7, many bullish set ups have been rising up & out of the ashes over the past several weeks. The General Markets V-Bottomed, we are now possibly seeing Oil try to recover, Precious Metals and Bitcoin/ crypto have all been forming bullish set ups and rewarding investors from April until now. It looks like this will continue and as you’ll see, Bitcoin also looks ready to resume its’ run higher. The bulls are in control as the markets climb a wall of worry.

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I hope that you all enjoy your weekend and we’ll see you on Monday!  Thanks for being a Chartfreak too!

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~ALEX

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BITCOIN has a weekly reversal, but the daily is really a bullish looking chart.

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BITCOIN WEEKLY – I don’t love that we have divergence showing up at new highs, because at times that leads to a lot of choppy price action to allow it to catch up. With a weekly chart however, it also may just take a couple of weeks for that to factor in as Bitcoin runs higher, so a measured move looks to be a run possibly to $130,000 or so (I have had a $120,000+ Target for a while now). We could run there and THEN pull back due to divergence. We’ll see, but…

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The BITCOIN DAILY chart from the close Friday is a clean looking set up and one that I predicted as possible weeks ago. That was a call for a choppy drop to either the 34 sma or the 50sma around day 60. Look how clean this set up has become. We reversed after day 59 at the 50sma, so that is really pretty clean, and the Crypto stocks were running last week, as pointed out in the reports. Just like with Silver stocks, we were able to take positions (large or small) ahead of this low. The crypto gains have been great.

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BITCOIN Saturday: We even have some follow through on what should be day 2. At day 2 of 60, it is hard to believe that we wouldn’t have some nice upside over the next few weeks.

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And similar to the Silver stocks, many crypto related stocks were up a lot too.  HUT was up 21%, RIOT, WULF, CIFR, IREN, etc also had similar gains for the week. And if Bitcoin is only on day 2? There should be more large gains to capture along the way.