Thursday June 26th
Update? Yes, Silver might be important to todays trading. It popped overnight and hopefully Gold starts to follow soon. But first we’ll cover the rest of the charts…
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SPX -We paused on Wednesday but this is a bullish 2nd daily cycle as we head for the new all-time highs. Buy & Hold has been working in many Tech stocks again.
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In early June I showed how one of my former favorites in my watch list already doubled from $10 to $20, and then pulled back to $15 as a buy at the 50sma.
I then put this in Tuesdays report as breaking the 200sma (another place to add with a stop). I said:
AAOI is on its way to doubling again. So AAOI broke above the 200sma and could run from $15 to $30…
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AAOI dropped to that 200sma yesterday and started to reverse, so I posted this after an hour of trading…
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AAOI: at noon it was up 7%, after that bounce off of the 200sma…
AAOI took off yesterday and was up another 14%, and then closed up 12.6%. Many of the former performers are certainly performing well again. his is now $15 to $26 in the last 7 days (almost 100%). It ran to $44 last year.
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POET -was also one that ran well n 2024, and I have mentioned it as being on my watchlist. It was lagging behind as the markets ran to prior highs, it was still building a base like AAOI. It popped yesterday so I posted this in the comments. It ran up over 20% with 7 million volume, so this may become a nice buy and hold on a dip, but those Moving Averages all clustered together often lead to a strong run. It may lock buyers out for a while.
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WTIC – Oil has a peak at day 15 so far, and that is out of a possible 55+ days. Oil may just return to its choppy ways again, trading inside of that 50sma & 200sma area before choosing a direction.
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THE USD broke down again and after giving us a failed daily cycle it seems to have picked its direction following an ICL in April. That direction appears to be lower and that can help the precious metals sector.
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THAT DIRECTION FOR THE USD APPEARS TO BE LOWER. I showed this on June 13th and it seems to be playing out. This should help Gold & Silver:
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THE USD is now actually back at the lows, and it could break down, as mentioned in past reports when I used THIS chart from June 13th. It seems that this would help Gold and Silver.
IN YESTERDAYS REPORT: A Possible DCL was mentioned with this chart…
As the day went on, GOLD started to try to recover that 50sma. This is day 26 and we have seen dcl’s come in around that time, so we’ll watch for upside price action over the next few days.
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GOLD moved slightly higher. We don’t officially have a swing low yet, but we have a big clue with Silver…
YESTERDAYS REPORT MENTIONED SILVER STOCKS REVERSING AT SUPPORT:
Many of the Miners, like EXK shown here midday, also dropped and found buyers at support levels. Many Silver stocks rallied and are holding up bullishly (AG, FSM, HL, CDE, EXK, AAGFF, ASM, etc etc etc. ).
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This is the Big Clue with Silver 🙂
SILVER 6 a.m. : Silver gave us a push higher yesterday and overnight, so we now have a swing low and what appears to be day 2. I did mention in the comments yesterday that I was adding to my positions.
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I did mention in the comments yesterday that I was adding to my positions, and I posted this chart of ASM as a leader that looked set up nicely. Look at that run from March or even April to June. $1.50 to $3 is 100%, and it ran from $1.50 ish to $3.75ish.
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SILVER pushed higher yesterday, despite Golds small gains. Now we want to see the Silver stocks kick it into gear and make another run higher.
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GDX and many Gold stocks were higher, but not really blasting off. That is ok, we’ve seen ‘slow starts’ before.
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In the comments I mentioned this about Golds possible slow start: A slow start can turn into a nice run too.
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And, I might be early, but I just looked back at the last 2 dcls, and –coincidentally – the next day was actually red days.
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Of course, SOME Gold or Silver stocks will do their own thing, like we saw with SNWGF on Tuesday and NAK on Wednesday. 🙂
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The USD dropped to a new low again, and Silver popped overnight, so it does seem like we are seeing a dcl develop in the precious metals sector at this time. The General Markets are running to prior highs, and every now and then we get some great ‘Pops’ higher from the current bases (BBAI, AAOI, POET, etc). I like to look for those bases if the stocks ran well in 2024, and then you just keep a watch list of them and visit that list daily. Some POP higher like BBAI, AAOI, and others add the gains in a nice orderly manner ( AFRM & SOFI seem to be slowly doing that now, for example).
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Bitcoin is below, Enjoy your Thursday trading!
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~ALEX
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I mentioned yesterday that I feel that with a failed daily cycle, Bitcoin may just chop lower in this channel. Only a breakout above it or move above day 4 highs will help to change that idea. I said…
Since we are on day 20, that means that we would have 40 days left (1 month and 1 week) to the next low. This pattern is obviously just an estimate, but it is possible that a failed daily cycle could cap the upside for the entire daily cycle.
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BITCOIN – Today will be day 21 and this is bitcoin at 6 a.m. Bitcoin was able to move a little higher yesterday, but most Crytpto related stocks popped and then dropped into the close, so they may begin to develop their own choppy channels.
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MARA –
Many Crytpto related stocks popped and then dropped into the close, so they may begin to develop their own choppy channels. For MARA: April to May saw a decent run, but many of these may now consolidate and base out. We could figure out their channels and buy low, sell higher – or – just trade Gold, Silver, & Tech Stocks until they may be ready for another run.
For RIOT (and WULF, IREN, CLSK, CIFR, ETC) it was slightly different: April to JUNE saw a decent run for RIOT, so some of these may now consolidate and base out and others may form a channel. We could figure out their channels and buy low, sell higher – or – just trade Gold, Silver, & Tech Stocks until they may be ready for another run.
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I sold my IREN last Friday near $10.80, just in case Bitcoin failed over the weekend, but it was my better gainer. It has chosen to continue higher for now though and was over $12 yesterday. I may watch for a dip and re-enter IREN if it falls to a support area and holds up
