Friday June 20th – Post Fed
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QQQ – I just wanted to show the intraday movement of the markets on our Fed day Wednesday.
1. There was a morning rally that made everything seem like we knew what the Fed would do and it was ok.
2. At 2 pm the markets popped and dropped sharply. They recovered back near the highs of the day waiting for his 2:30 p.m. speech.
3. As the Fed spoke the markets sold off, rallied, sold off, rallied, sold off and then closed between the lows and the highs of the day. That is an indecision candle, and it definitely felt ‘indecisive’.
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So with that intraday gyration in both the Nasdaq and The SPX, we got a slightly red day on day 17.
ON THIS CHART I took a look back at past Fed days (Arrow and orange box) and often I saw that the markets paused for a day or 2 and then actually moved higher.
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WTIC – Oil is only on day 13 of a possible 50 day daily cycle, and it is holding the highs of the recent surge when Israel and Iran conflict started to escalate. It is now at the major downtrend line, and I feel that it could go either way, depending on whether there is an agreement reached and a cease fire / or if there is escalation. That ICL drop was a break down, but it has now obviously recovered.
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With THE USD I was pointing out that a bullish descending wedge was forming, but then it broke down below the USD April ICL. Very unusual action. It then recovered and now looks to be trying to break out higher after the Fed Decision. Note: Gold has been doing the inverse of the USD again, but it broke free from that during the dec 2024 rally, when they both went higher, so for now we’ll just have to wait and see, but Gold is bullish too.
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GOLD -We have had different reactions post-fed with Gold, but that was likely more due to the cycles timing.
In January Gold rallied.
In March it dipped for 3 days and then rallied.
In May it dropped for 7 days into a low.
Currently being on Day 23 Wednesday, we are due for a cycle low now, so we may see a drop here. I think that Gold still trades on Thursdays U.S. Holiday, so Friday would be day 25 and a low can form at any time. Perhaps just a quick dip to the blue 50sma?
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SILVER dropped on Fed Wednesday and is also due for a dcl. Silver has held that 10 sma perfectly over the past couple of weeks, so if that breaks, then I think we’ll see our dcl (it may be quite mild, since Silver has been so strong). Note: Both Gold and Silver have a day or 2 of extra days on the Spot Gold and Spot Silver charts, since they show holiday trades and added Sunday night as a separate day. Silver was on day 26 Thursday on the Spot chart.
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GDX should be coming due for a dcl too, since fed wed was day 24. We used to see 32 day daily cycles regularly, but several of these daily cycles recently have only been 24-27 days long, now that the bull has caused a buy the dip mentality. We may or may not reach the 50sma, since price could also go sideways as the 50sma catches up.
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In the recent past (earlier in 2025) we saw that the following 1 or 2 days after the Fed decision were somewhat uneventful. In some of the following days we saw price slightly up or slightly down, and then things resumed normal movement. We’ll see if that means anything for Fridays trading, but with the precious metals, a dcl is coming due. Enjoy your Friday Post fed trading!
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~ALEX
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Bitcoin – If this is going to act like a triangle, then fine, but right now I don’t like the lack of strength and the MACD divergence. Those are keeping me from being heavily positioned, but I do have a couple of positions in the miners. So basically, we should be only on day 14 of possibly 60! It would be GREAT if it started to break to new highs and run higher. So far it is hanging at the red 50sma. Some Crypto stocks do look properly set up…
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Some Crypto stocks do look properly set up, like RIOT, IREN, and a few others. I’m mostly watching them at the 20ema support or the 50sma. I think that they will do good if Bitcoin takes off higher.
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RIOT has great volume and reverses at support, so this is acting correctly.
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IREN has doubled since April, so you can’t knock that, but it has been choppier recently with Bitcoins delay.
