Friday June 13th

Note: Much of this report will be considered a ‘review’ of what happened on Thursday, but we had some news released overnight that Israel attacked Irans’ nuclear sites and targeted some military leaders, and that can affect other areas. With that news, we have a big change in some areas (especially Oil, as you would think). These are the futures as of 6 a.m.

I may go through and add an additional thought or 2 with the current news release. I will add an ‘Update’ note in some areas.

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THE SPX dropped and reversed higher again on day 13. Added update note: A dip now starting on day 14 may only be a knee jerk reaction that gives us a half cycle low over the next few days.  IF THE DCL at the 200sma is taken out, that could get ugly.

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WTIC – Oil is pushing against resistance, but there was an evacuation in Iran today with the threat of a military strike, so Oil should be able to get through this area. It is only day 9 of a possible 45+, so this can run higher. I pointed out a week or 2 ago that Oil has actually become more bullish, and Oil stocks were leading the way. An ‘Update’ will follow...

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UPDATE: WOW! 

WTIC – After the Iran strike, Oil actually spiked from $68 to $78! It is now at $74. Obviously, the downtrend and that 200sma are now broken =)

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THE USD actually broke below what should have been the ICL. An announcement came out midday that Israel might attack Iran, and evacuations began to take place of various foreigners . That may have had a play in the USD weakness, but interestingly, Gold did not break that $3403 that I was looking for, even with a new low in the USD.

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YESTRDAY I WROTE:

GOLD remains a bullish set up and Gold and Silver have been acting like an ICL is in place. We have a day 14 ‘peak’ at $3403, and Gold is on day 18.  If that $3403 is taken out, our peak would very likely be R.T. at day 19 or 20.

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GOLD did not take out that $3403 peak, even with the USD breaking down.  That was quite surprising.

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UPDATE:

GOLD 6 a.m. – Gold did jump and then started to pull back with that news about Israel and Iran, so now the $3403 peak has been taken out and this is a R.T. daily cycle. The spike for Gold was not that big so far, but adds to the bullishness.

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SILVER dropped and bounced off of the 10sma.  Note: Silver barely moved with the news of Israels airstrikes. Silver is actually down to $36.25 as I update this at 6:30 a.m.

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GDX moved with Gold and it is also possibly going to try to take out the day 15 peak. GDX has been following Gold.

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Well, I am going to conclude by mentioning that we are kind of in a ‘wait and see’ mode. These set ups can lead us to believe that we will see one thing, like possibly a half cycle low temporary dip in the general markets, but over time it can become something else. Why? Well it is like the war that broke out between Russia and The Ukraine, for example: It is harder to know the long term affects, especially since we don’t know if the war will start to escalate as Iran retaliates(?) or is this a temporary move to try to disable nuclear capability and then thing subside? We don’t know. When the war between Russia and the Ukraine broke out, I dont think that anyone knew that it would still be taking place. It also no longer really affects the markets in the U.S. very much. So…

1. At times when a major geopolitical move takes place, we get a knee jerk reaction that lasts a few days and then settles down.

2. At other times the move starts to change the overall shape of things. Maybe 1 or 2 areas are strengthened like Gold & Oil? Maybe not.  We’ll really have to wait and see, but always have stops in place and if you are stopped out and things return to bullish, you would need to find a way to get back in.

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~ALEX

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BITCOIN -I captured this chart on Thursday and Bitcoin bounced at the 20 ema, so this continued to look bullish on day 7, but what happened after the Israel / Iran strike?

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UPDATE:

BITCOIN now dropped to the 50sma and bounced. The DCL has not been broken, but you can see that this is now just getting choppy. This is what I actually warned about when I saw that large divergence in the MACD. Now we have to ‘wait and see’ here too, to see if Bitcoin can fix or correct that divergence over time with choppiness. That does often happen, but it can make trading the sector difficult.  I have been ‘buy & Hold’ in this sector so far and I hope to hold on to those positions with stops in place.