Wednesday May 14 – Surprises to the Upside
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SPX – The bulls are running, and we are seeing it flow into many of the stocks that I have on my ( & you have on your) watchlists. This is day 25 of maybe 35-40+. The bulls can stretch a run out of a low, due to shorts covering at first and buyers stepping in now.
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THE NASDAQ is heading toward all-time highs again, and it looks like the markets are starting to run away and leave people behind. That is why I encouraged to buy near the lows (even if you just start small) and raise stops along the way. You can then ‘Add’ or ‘buy ‘ at the next dcl.
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You may recall that this was one of my favorite stocks.
I actually took a look at AAOI last week and thought that it was too laggy at the green 20 ema, so maybe too lagging too much to buy yet. It was near $12.50. Suddenly it ran from $10 to $20! 100% since April 21.
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MONDAY I SAID:
BBAI – is an AI stock that did exceptional in Nov to Feb. ‘Soun’, which is in the same ‘AI’ group rallied up 20% from a very similar looking base yesterday, so BBAI has a base and is trying to escape above that 50sma. It looks like a good set up, but I really wish it popped more on a day like yesterday.
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BBAI popped yesterday , so I pointed it out up 16%. It was up 20% and then slowly pulled back a little, so…
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BBAI closed up roughly 10%, after being up 20%. Does that worry me? No, I would add on dips and look at my Maroon arrows. Those were days that ran up and pulled back by the close. Did that end the run? Not at all. That pop and pullback happened on many days in January & February, but it still tripled. I still like this set up for the long run.
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I used to love CRWD (Crowdstrike) and they dropped when a negative report came out. I believe it was one of those ‘Hindenburg’ reports. Seems it wasn’t entirely true and now we have a ‘double bottom low’ after that recent ICL crash and CRWD is already back to former highs. This is a nice double bottom cup and handle.
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PLTR was also on my ‘former bullish runners’ list and I mentioned it at $90 w/the 50sma. It too is now ready to make new all-time highs. BUY & HOLD has been very rewarding in the first daily cycle.
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I mentioned SOFI too, and it is now where PLTR was when I mentioned it -right around the 50sma / 20ema. SOFI has moved from $8.75 to $14.50ish, and can run to new all time highs and more in this intermediate cycle too. Earnings was released 2 weeks ago.
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RUN – ED pointed out that Solar Stocks looked good last week and take a look at RUN, FSLR, etc. SO WITH THIS ROCKETSHIP, I pointed out some laggers yesterday…
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MAXN was pointed out as being closer to the base, but it broke the purple downtrend and back tested it, so it was a buy & hold. What if this runs back to the highs? So…
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MAXN was up 17% by 11 a.m. & closed up 20%. VERY NICE. Is this going to run like RUN above did? We don’t know , but FSLR, RUN, etc have moved well off of the lows, so you can buy their dips and try to ride these rips.
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SPWR looked good too, since it also released earnings at the end of April and was now above both the 50sma & 200sma. At 10 a.m. it was only up 2.9%, so it could be bought here with the hopes that it runs to former highs (& more).
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SPWR then shot up 16%, but then it slowly sold down into the close too. It was up 6.42%, but I feel the same way about this one. It can pop and drop and maybe even pull back, but over time, if this solar sector remains bullish, it can move much higher.
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TSLA is starting to break free from the base/ consolidation. The low of $225 to the highs of $475 is 100% gains. I know that Tesla has been the target of hate and vandalism, but the charts say that they are ion their way higher. I actually trade a leveraged ticker to TSLA, and that is TSLL. Beware–it is leveraged. TSLL just moved from $6.50 to $14 in 1 month.
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Is the USD due for a dcl? The cycles have been both ‘short’ and ‘long’, crashing and stretching, so it is hard to say for sure, but…
1. USD is on day 16 at resistance & turned lower as drawn
2. USD can ‘peak’ here and drift lower
3. As mentioned yesterday, That drop might allow gold to put in its own dcl and bounce.
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GOLD 6 a.m. Gold held at the 34 sma on day 25 (the lowest low so far), but it could break down to a new low. It is currently a little red for Wednesday. A dcl can come in now or any day in this cycle count area. My GDX chart explains why…
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SILVER is churning along the 50sma and is possibly now forming a triangle? Silver is on day 25.
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So with the GDX I wanted to point out that the last daily cycle was only 26 days long, but the first one was VERY long and stretched (40 days!) as the GDX started to follow Gold more closely. So if the last daily cycle was 26 days long, then we have to conclude that we are in the timing that a dcl can occur. They also often come around day 30+, so…
Conclusion: GOLD & the GDX can dcl any time this week or next.
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I do not see a lot of Data today (a few Fed Speakers do have speeches, but these often go unnoticed unless something very strong is in the speech). The General Markets are running strong, but they can stall or pull back at any time too. The next DCL will be a buying opportunity and I will start to draw those possibilities when the ‘timing’ brings us closer and resistance or support at that time shows up.
For now it could be anything like this:
1. A run to former highs, ‘peak’ there, and dip into a dcl? OR
2. Pause at resistance right here at the yellow consolidation and churn into a dcl at the blue 50sma? We just need more time and clues to be able to ‘buy that dip’ when it comes.
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Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN – I started the count from the absolute low of that consolidation and today we are 35 days out of that low. Was it a day 29 low, or was it a day 59 low? Either way, those counts should give us time to consolidate to the 20 ema, then hopefully shoot higher and then back-test with a dcl near day 60ish. That is almost 30 days away, right? Almost 1 month away. I do hope that volume increases to the upside, that is important to me.
