Sunday May 4th – Enjoying the Ride

I just want to say that this was a rough week for me, and I was away from my computer for days, but I had some ‘Buy & Hold ‘ positions that are nicely profitable. That’s a good sign and many sectors look to be really improving (Tech, Quant, Robotics, MJ, and more). Let’s make some money.

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SPX WEEKLY – This looks very  bullish, similar to what we had in the Covid crash and recovery. Can it pull back? Yes. After that large reversal at the lows, it dropped, so that cold happen at this resistance. So in other words, Next week could pull back and look like something is wrong, but it could be a half cycle low.

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The SOXX is not as advanced as the SPX or NASDAQ, so it could play catch up with some good news, something like: ‘Trump wants to ease tariffs on semiconductors’. Boom, it could run right up to the 50 week ma too.

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IWM – Each bounce prior to this has only lasted for a week or so, this is 4 green weeks in a row. It looks like 5 waves down and ready to go higher.

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The USD – We have a possible ICL. This could show some strength for a while, as many as 2 or 3 months. With Gold looking to have ‘peaked’, we could see an intermediate cycle of gold go sideways to down for that duration too.  Just an idea.

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So let me draw the weekly chart of GOLD with that strong spike reversal candle as a ‘peak’, and a drop over time in a-b-c form. That said, look at past ‘consolidations’ into ICLs and they did not really do a-b-c or even 5 wave clearly. Gold has been a strong bull! 4-5 months  sideways chop is possible too.

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GOLD – This would be a similar pattern of consolidation.  Choppy, boring, always looking like its ready to take off. Please read the chart.

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GDX has been following gold for the most part, but we do k now that Miners can sell off, especially in 4 or 5th daily cycles, so we’ll keep that in mind.

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GDX – 2 ideas. 1 stays strong, the other weakens a bit more.

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GDX, using cycles, is peaking L.T. on the 3rd daily cycle. We could see 2 more that lead into August if they are long.

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I really like what I see with the general markets. Like I mentioned long ago–The covid rebound kept on climbing that ‘wall of worry’ at the absolute worst time (business Shutdowns, no vaccines, people stayed home, stopped casual shopping, manufacturing slowed, etc, but markets marched on).  We could see that again. If we get pull backs, I’ll look for entries, right now ‘buy and hold, raising stops has been good.  Have a great night and Monday all, and thanks for everything!!

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~ALEX

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BITCOIN – Saturday & Sunday night we see a dip, but I was expecting this due to the timing. We now have a day 25 peak (Strong, R.T.), and we’re on day 27. 20 ema will be worth watching.

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MARA – Many Crypto stocks are making good progress and I’m seeing volume come in, so I like what I see here. With Bitcoins dip tonight, it should be a buy the dip later this week (20ema?).