May 17 Weekend Report

The set ups, the charts, and all that we discussed last weekend and in my daily reports remains the same, so this will just be a slightly shorter recap of our bullish markets.

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SPX WEEKLY– What can I say here? 🙂 We obviously do have the ICL, the buy & hold while raising stops recommendation is working out VERY well, and this is still only the first daily cycle. That’s great!

If you went in lightly on this run, it has now proven itself to be a bull, and we can ‘buy that dip’ when the dcl comes in. That applies to the SPX, NASDAQ, SOXX, IWM, etc.

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WTIC WEEKLY – We know that Oil broke down and it hasn’t been above to recover yet, even though we have 25+ days in this daily cycle. If we have an ICL, it will recover bit it may only bounce around in that blue triangle. Oil remains choppy.

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The USD broke down and has been able to recover. Past ICLs have just slowly powered higher over time and Gold sold down. With the LAST run though, Gold and the USD began to run higher together. I’m sure that you remember that and that may happen again, but right now we have Gold dipping and the USD pushing higher. The USD is very oversold.

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As a reminder from Fridays report: The Gold Daily cycle count. The last daily cycle was only 26 days long. This one was 27 days with a reversal…

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The last daily cycle peaked on day 10 (L.T.), and I do expect that this one will also become L.T., peaking between day 7-11, and not able to move above day 10 of this last daily cycle. Yes, you can buy the dcl / miners with a stop just in case it takes off to new all-time highs (less likely).

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GOLD WEEKLY : So as mentioned above, Gold is in the timing for a dcl, and the weekly has a reversal candle right at the 10 week ma. This is likely the next daily cycle low.

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SILVER WEEKLY– Silver is so choppy that the chart is really just a mess. Was that a ‘flush out’ ICL on April 7, arriving at the same time that the General Markets put in an early ICL? It may be, but right now we still have more choppiness and need more time to see if it runs up to make a new high. So far Silver is holding up at the blue 30 week ma.

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GDX DAILY– Similar to Gold, GDX had a 26 day daily cycle and now as of Thursday it also had a day 26 low. So GDX did not take out that low on Friday, so if this sector rallies next week, Gold and GDX look to have dcls in place.

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GDX WEEKLY– So the GDX weekly chart may also have a reversal /dcl here. Miners suddenly SURGED in early April out of that dcl, but then it slowed down, so we’ll see if that happens again.

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That is our review of the current set ups and as you can see, that crash down with the ‘tariffs’, inflation threats, recession chatter, and so on was an exhaustion crash. Now the slam down has recovered with a V-Bottom and is almost back at the all-time highs. The USD is rising up out of a low and the Precious Metals sector has pulled back a bit, but it is due for a dcl. The bounce should form L.T. and roll over 1 more time for an ICL, but bull markets can have surprises to the upside, so stay frosty, my friends!

Enjoy your weekend and thank you for being a freak-of-the-charts with me!!

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~ALEX

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BITCOIN DAILY –

1. I just want to mention that we are on day 38 of a possible 60 or so, so there is plenty of time to pull back a bit and then break out to new all-time highs.

2. That being said, former highs are also often ‘resistance’ areas, so we have roughly 20 days where we may see choppy sideways action that forms a handle.  I have drawn both possible paths on this chart.

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BITCOIN WEEKLY– So on the weekly chart, I claimed that this looked very bullish a couple of weeks ago and here we are back at the highs. Now if we break out, the run continues, and we do have time for that run to $120,000.  At the same time, we have time to put on a ‘handle’, so on this chart it would appear to be an Inverse H&S Pattern.