Friday May 9th – Seeing Some Follow-Through
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SPX – We made a new high on Thursday, day 22. We are really stretching out to make this most likely a R.T. Daily cycle out of an ICL. This is still only the first daily cycle, you could have been adding on dips (half cycle low) and you’ll also be able to buy / add on a dcl later.
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The new high was clearer on the SOXX and I mentioned around day 16 that it may play catch up, so I wanted to show that here. SOXL is the leveraged trade. AMD, MU, TSEM are a couple of good charts…
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The Semiconductor sector should work out as a buy & hold, but I would still pay attention to when the earnings releases are coming out with tariffs POSSIBLY affecting business. If you bought MU at the first dip & reversal near $65, you are at $85. Better than nothing and likely to get a lot better over time. $65 to $100 is great in recent conditions.
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I had been talking about the set up / bases on QUANT stocks like QBTS, QUBT, RGTI, IONQ , QSI (Those are my personal favorites, and QMCO , ARQQ are good too). yesterday they gapped open BIG TIME and then closed the gap. I was looking for a reversal to buy the gap fill and RGTI turned at the support area. I bought it and it shot up, so I posted this. at $9.50.
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RGTI I then posted it rising back up, now up 8% (they move quite quickly). It closed up 11% and these are great looking bases / consolidations. Can it drop today? Yes, we keep seeing Pop & Drop, but one dy these could stairstep higher by a lot. NOTE: EARNINGS IN 2 DAYS FOR RGTI, but…
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QUBT released earnings during the market crash down, but it held up and based out. This ‘small’ move yesterday was a 20% pop. EARNINGS IS NEXT THURSDAY, but guess what???
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QBTS EARNINGS RELEASE: I actually sold QBTS to avoid earnings and it Popped 30% and closed up 50% 🙁 This is one of the BUY & HOLD positions that I held while in the hospital. I had 2 quants and 3 Crypto stocks when I got sick and could care less about trading last week, so I held them and they did ok. I sold this for earnings and that was a BAD move. I knew these could drop or pop 20%, so I played it safe and got locked out. MAYBE i can buy a dip at the dcl. I still own others.
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THE USD popped and broke that 20 ema finally. This was a dcl, possible ICL, and it is leaning toward an ICL if it shows strength this late in the intermediate cycle. We’ll see if it holds that 20ema for 2 or 3 days.
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GOLD dropped as the USD popped, so that inverse relationship may be coming back into play. Gold has time to bounce and drop to the 50sma for the next dcl.
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UPDATE:
GOLD LIVE 6 am is trying to reverse this morning, but if I was heavily invested in Miners and I was Not trying to buy and hold from past ICLs, I’d use the bounce to lighten up. I think Gold has peaked for a little while.
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SILVER is on day 22, has continued to be rather choppy and frustrating, and is running out of time to make good progress.
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GDX has been following Gold and it is still close to the highs, so that is encouraging. Many are acting bullishly with earnings and THAT is a welcome change too! We should dip down into a dcl and then ICL, and that will make for an excellent buy opportunity. Gold peaked at $3500 to far and Gold $5000 should not be considered unlikely. ALSO , if Silver catches fire (because now we are seeing earnings Pops in SSRM, CDE, etc, we could see that Silver run that we’ve been hoping for. THE WEEKEND REPORT WILL DISCUSS THIS SECTOR FURTHER.
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CDE popped 20% plus on earnings! PAAS, SSRM, also did well, but AG & HL got crushed with their earnings, so I’m hoping that the next Intermediate Cycle is very strong.
The Precious Metals sector has definitely been earning respect with investors, and they’ve stopped calling Gold an old relic rock. 🙂 It is due for a rest though, and Golds weekly candle last week looked like a top at $3500. Pullbacks take time, but they are ‘Buy the dip’ opportunities in Bull Markets.
The General markets had quite the slam down during ‘Tariff talk’ and inflation threats and other things that caused uncertainty, but after we got that slam down flush, I started to point to the shortened daily cycle during Covid that caused an ICL. I showed a number of chart (Like this one below) pointing out similarities and here we again can take a look at daily cycle 1, 2, and 3 out of the ICL on this weekly chart that I used. It was when people were afraid to buy that the best gains were made.
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Enjoy your Friday trading and have a great weekend!
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~ALEX
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Yesterday I said:
Overnight Bitcoin ripped higher. We had our day 29 dip and now this CAN move another 30 days higher. It may be choppy or it may accelerate, but the chart is a beauty.
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BITCOIN continued to surge and some Crypto stocks did EXCELLENT. Others were surprisingly only up 3 or 4 %. I want to show you something very interesting about cycle counts.
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We had a slam down low in Bitcoin on day 27, very similar to the recent slam down low that became an ICL in the General Markets, right? So I called that the ICL when it made progress. WITH THAT COUNT, I expected a day 30ish dip, and we got that at day 29. So this would only be day 31! Lot’s of ‘time’ left. That said, what if I did not change the count?…
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BITCOIN -What if I did not change the count? Day 27 was the low, and then we’d count forward as shown here. That day 29 dip becomes a day 56 dip. We would only be on day 2! So I just wanted to give both counts to show that either way, we are on the early end of cycle counts and we just tagged $104,000 already. We could be ready to make my original run to $120,000+. We’ll see.
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I pointed out that it is Obvious that the Crypto stocks like BTDR were lagging a bit, but they DID have great bases. I showed BTDR on May 6 as a nice consolidation ABOVE support. It was a buy near 410.
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BTDR -popped up and over the 50sma yesterday, so I pointed out THAT bullish move too.
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BTDR closed up 20%! So maybe some of the other laggers can also begin to kick it into gear here.
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HUT released earnings and I saw it drop sharply pre-market. Then it started to bounce back with Bitcoin surging. You can see that it opened, dipped to the red 50sma, and then climbed steadily all day long. This is another base/ consolidation with PRICE ABOVE SUPPORT that played out nicely. If this can make its way back to the former highs, it is also a double.
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MARA, CLSK, WULF have earnings yesterday & today. In the meantime, we can look for others above support and they may be ready to join Bitcoin. The real leader for me has been MSTR.
