Tuesday April 22nd
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SPX – The general markets dropped and stayed at the lows until the final part of the trading day, when they started to bounce back. We may have a higher low forming, but for me, the real proof that a low may be in place is a move back above the 20 ema. Remember that this may only be day 26, unless we had a very short exhaustion low and then this would be day 9.
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Yesterday in the comments section I wanted to point out what is happening with the Biotech stocks, so I posted this at 11:30 a.m.
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THE XBI did sell off a little for the day after that, but the point is that so far the biotech sector is putting in a much higher low, not dropping with the general markets over the past few days. FOR EXAMPLE:
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NTLA broke above the 20 ema and was up 10% yesterday at the close.
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RNA was up 7% and didnt sell off like the general markets did last week.
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TSHA popped almost 20% at one point yesterday. So this is a sector that we may want to keep an eye on for an opportunity either now or even if we wait until the next dcl.
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WTIC – Oil actually looks better than the General Markets too, but I still feel that we did not have an ICL here, due to the timing, as pointed out in the weekend report.
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I want to repost what I had in the weekend report: Notice that price was already below the long consolidation as of Friday.
This is also what I had been calling for with The USD.
Since last year I actually thought that it would drop to the lows of this consolidation again, but when it broke out higher to $110, I was pretty surprised. It started to look like it would rally onward, but suddenly it weakened again and crashed lower in 2025. It is oversold and due for an ICL, but you can see 2 crashes in 2025, so it may struggle to get back above $104 for a while.
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THE USD dropped sharply again yesterday, from above $99 to $98, making a new low and an even deeper breakdown from that long consolidation.
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GOLD certainly did not slow down on day 9 Monday. Gold looks like it could go for the $3500 (nice round number) as the next point of interest. That $3500 is actually one of the targets on a weekly chart, but I wouldnt doubt Gold until we see a swing high in place.
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SILVER still just looks like a normal run out of a sharp slam down low. It is above the 50sma at $32.51, so we can watch that area as a point of interest. This was day 9 and it follows a crash in Silver. Silver stocks popped and gapped up nicely at the open, but as the day went on they sold down and closed the gaps.
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As mentioned above: SILJ
Silver stocks popped and gapped up nicely at the open, but as the day went on they sold down and closed the gaps when Silver started to sell off too. These are not ‘following the markets’ or they’d be much lower, but they can sell off at any time, with or without the general markets, because this could form as a L.T. daily cycle.
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GDX DAY 9: GDX has also been much stronger than the general markets, so we can see that the Miners are not ‘getting caught up in the general market selling’, especially since the general markets sold off last week too. Miners are at the highs, but if this is going to form as a L.T. Daily Cycle and dip lower into May, it can peak anywhere from day 7-13 and sell down. Volume has been strong as buyers piled in.
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Looking at some of the Gold stocks like IAG, HMY, KGC, etc, we know that Gold itself was up $100, but even the stronger gold Miners started to ‘stall’.
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Looking at some of the Gold stocks like IAG, HMY, KGC, etc, we know that Gold itself was up $100, but even the stronger gold Miners started to ‘stall’.
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I do want to mention that stocks like HMY are only on the 3rd daily cycle, so even though it ‘stalled’ that doesn’t mean that it cannot climb a bit higher too. You could use a stop or sell partial gains if you feel that Gold is peaking.
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For most, it is a waiting game. Some are riding positions, some may be shorter term trading positions, and others may be waiting to buy a higher low or the next dcl, but is all amounts to waiting to see how these various sectors will play out for our next opportunities.
We are waiting to see if the General markets can continue higher from here or do they need another dip to the lows (like a double bottom)? Others are watching for Golds very bullish run to eventually ‘peak’ so that they can lock in some gains and try to buy the next low. In the middle of all of this, the Biotech Sector seems to be trying to push higher out of the lows, so that may be leading the way, we’ll have to wait and see. Bitcoin is pushing higher, but I actually tried to day-trade a couple of Crypto stocks intraday. They ran up higher, but then sold off again later, so the day trade did not hold the gains in Crypto. Bitcoin does continue to look interesting though, especially on a weekly basis, so I’ll discuss that below. Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN pushed above that 200sma overnight and did make a slightly higher high, so that is progress.
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BITCOIN WEEKLY – I mentioned that this chart looks bullish to me.
In the weekend report I pointed out this resistance and now we see price over coming that resistance. The weekly chart looks quite bullish actually, but the daily shows a break of the prior lows, so we’ll have to see how this plays out. So far, Crypto Miners have been weak. I’ll be looking to see if that changes.
