Friday April 25th – Still Looking For Changes
.
SPX – The general markets reversed higher and did not drop to fill that gap that was left there on Wednesday. We are now at the downtrend line, so any more upward travel should be breaking the downtrend, and this is good progress. Since this looks like we MIGHT have had an exhaustion low at day 17, I restarted the count, and this would be day 12, (It would be day 29 if it rolled over, so we would expect it to weaken soon if it is a final daily cycle). A run to the 50sma is normal as a back test, but then we’ll see if the markets can break even higher.
.
THE NASDAQ actually reversed right at the 20 ema and it broke that downtrend line! That really does make this look like day 12.
.
In the report yesterday, I pointed out that on my watchlist of former ‘leaders’ or ‘Bullish Stocks’, I am seeing progress as this move out of the lows progresses. I will post just a few of those charts below & show what they did yesterday.
.
I posted this in the report
.
CRWD does not look weak by any measure.
.
CVNA has bounced back nicely too…
.
CVNA has now broken out above the 20ema, 50sma, and is also heading bck up toward prior highs again.
.
This was RR (Robotics) as pointed out on Thursday in the report as having higher lows when the markets crashed to new lows in early April.
.
RR is a Robotics stock and yesterday RR, SERV, ARBE, etc all climbed higher. RR was up another 10% and is now also above the 50sma. A run to former highs is a 100%+ move.
Signs of life: So we are seeing good encouraging progress in the markets at this point.
.
THE USD is due for a low and may be starting to put one in place. Note: We know that Gold and The USD lost their ‘opposite correlation’ this year, but that may start to kick in again, so I am watching to see if the USD bounces and Gold dips into May.
.
GOLD 5 a.m. – With the USD bottoming, we see Gold dipping. Gold took off like a rocket out of the recent dcl, and it ran straight up and looked like it may not stop. I just want to point out that Spot Gold started to count Sunday night as a separate day, so SPOT gold says we are on day 14, but usually Sundy night is counted with Monday, so we would be on day 12. Either way, this can be a L.T. Daily cycle forming.
.
GOLD – So here you see the way Gold is normally counted, and we’d be on day 12 with a peak on day 10 (so far). At this point, Gold could just ramp up parabolic in THIS dip being a half cycle low for the current daily cycle, or hopefully, it bounces and then dips down into May. We prefer that, because the drop would ‘reset’ the cycles and Gold could then rally for 2 or 3 daily cycles. I’ll discuss that in the weekend report.
.
SILVER 5 a.m. – Silvers set up is very odd and uncommon. That crash broke below the ICL, erasing 3 daily cycles in a couple of days. So was THAT an ICL? IF IT WAS, I have to wonder if Silver is about to rally sharply into its own parabolic run, while Gold takes off into a final run. Let’s see if Silver can break to new highs here. SO FAR, SILVER STOCKS seem a bit sluggish.
.
EXK – Some of the Silver stocks did not follow that current sharp move out of the lows with Silver, but they would if it went into a parabolic run. All eyes on Gold & Silver, right?
.
The Miners, represented here by The GDX ETF, did run sharply out of the last slam down low.
They followed Golds straight up run and now they are ‘pausing’ like Gold too. We have to see what Gold wants to do.
1. If Gold just took off higher, then this would be a half cycle low and it could run straight up into a parabolic top.
2. If gold just bounces and then sells off, we could drop into an ICL and then rally higher.
.
After a steady crash in the general markets developed due to the uncertainty and indecision (& the constant change) of Tariffs, unclear earnings forecasts, inflation threats, etc etc, things stabilized and we have been experiencing the bounce that was expected. Is it an ICL and a new beginning, similar to that covid crash and recovery during hard times? It could be, since I do see some stocks recovering, so there is hope. We can’t be sure about future developments with China and other tariff threats still looming out there, so continue to be safe, raise stops, and stay tuned. I’ll will continue to monitor how things unfold and we will continue to Stay Frosty my friends! So far, this has been a good week for traders, but I’ll admit that my trades have been somewhat smaller in position sizes than they were in the days of the strong Bull Run. It’s more of ‘testing the waters’ at this point and We just need to continue to make adjustments as things become clearer. For example: Buying at a higher low 2nd daily cycle may offer some good set ups and heavier trades again in May. 🙂 Enjoy your Friday trading!
.
~ALEX
.
BITCOIN crawled along the 20 ema, under the 200sma, and finally broke out higher. Most of the Crypto-stocks waited for that break higher, but now they are moving up higher out of their lows. So far you just have to respect the price action, and the weekly chart went from looking bullish to looking very nice. This may be trying to make a run to former highs, and it has time with a 60 day daily cycle unfolding at day 44. That means that the crypto stocks are making gains and that may continue. I’ll discuss this further in the weekend report too.
