April 16th – Let’s Get Hopping!

Wednesdays Data doesn’t seem like a big market mover, until you get to 1:30 p.m.  He speaks at the economic club in Chicago and is expected to discuss the economy, tariffs and more. I’m sure that he will be careful with what he says, but the markets will be listening intently for clues (Rate cuts?).

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Right now, The SPX is still pushing on that 20 ema.n This could be day 6 out of a crash early ICL, or it could be day 23, and one final plunge could take us to a day 35 or so low.

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The NASDAQ is also up against a resistance area. A break of the downtrend and 20 ema seems quite bullish to me, but will we see it?

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So I went to some of the former leaders on my watchlist and a few of them look bullish again.

CRWD, for example, has some really nice price action, moving above the 50 & 200sma and the RSI is almost 60. PLTR, RKLB, CVNA, and others also look to be recovering more quickly.

 

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WTIC – Oil is trying to bounce, but I am thinking that it will only get up to do a back-test and then it could roll over again.

 

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THE USD was due for a bounce, but this really looks like a bear flag at this point.

 

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YESTERDAY I SAID:

GOLD stalled on day 5, but even a L.T. Daily Cycle can peak on day 7-11, so we could see more upside on Gold. Gold was slightly down Monday, but some Gold Miners were higher.

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GOLD started to push higher, but I am writing this at 5 a.m., and Gold shot up almost $100 overnight, so let’s take a live look.

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GOLD is becoming the new Bitcoin. It looks like a safe haven play, since it just keeps finding buyers. Gold hit $3300 overnight! A measured move would bring this to $3500, if the second leg matches the first leg.

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A measured move would bring Gold to $3500, if the second leg matches the first leg. This is what I was concerned about though, because this would be adding another very strong week to the weekly chart, and add to that possible parabolic look.

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SILVER stalled at the 50 sma, but it was able to push through it overnight.

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As mentioned yesterday, The GDX ETF is acting more like Gold than Silver. When we got our dcl, I mentioned buying and raising stops in case it becomes L.T., but so far it is running nicely. A stop at the gap would work to lock in gains now. I’ll be watching the volume today, but with Gold up $80, the volume may come in.

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Let me show you the huge difference between my favorite Silver stocks vs my favorite Gold stocks. In Silver we are very familiar with AG, CDE, HL, EXK, FSM, SSRM, etc.

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AG is a very nice looking base, but look how far off it is from former highs. Most Silver stocks look like this on a 5 year chart, and to be honest? It has been frustrating. Will they start to run and play catch up to Gold stocks? That was the hope, but it is hard to say what Silver will do if Gold ‘peaks’. If Gold pulls back and makes one more run higher, then I think that Silver can really catch fire. Now to one of my favorite Gold stocks, and you know that it is HMY…

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HMY has been one of my main favorite Gold stocks and believe it or not, it has more than doubled since January alone.

I do want to point out 2024 though. I started to HATE HMY, because every time it broke out to new highs it quickly crashed to the lows again. It dropped form $10 to $8, $11 to $8, and $12 to $8! I did not continue to carry my heavy position from the lows, because it just didn’t look like it could hold the gains. It dropped from $12 to $8 in the last ICL, and then ran from $8 to $17.55 so far. This is also now starting to look parabolic. 🙁

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KGC (& IAG)  have also been favorites of mine, but they also had a rough year in 2024. This choppiness makes one wonder (at the time) if they can hold their gains. Will buyers ever Buy & Hold and stop all of this chop!  That said, buying 2 or 3 years ago at $3 would have paid off nicely.  So I wonder, Will the Silver stocks get off the ground too?

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CDE & Other silver miners have been just as choppy as those Gold stocks were last year, right before finally running higher. Will Silver stocks do that too?  That is what I have been waiting for, so we’ll see.

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AG – So when I show you this silver company, it doesn’t look bad. It actually looks like a nice base is forming, but when I say that it has been difficult real time…

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AG – When I show you this and I say that it has been difficult real time, this is what it looks like in 2025 alone. I really am hoping that these Silver stocks can finally break and run like the Gold stocks did.

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 I’ll tell you what I’m starting to think / wonder: With the General Markets crashing recently, Gold is almost looking parabolic (safe haven?). When the General Markets ICL & start to push higher, does money then flow back into the general markets and Gold peaks?  We may see that, since Gold will be due for a dip into an ICL.  AFTER THAT, we will know if we are getting that parabolic run now, or is it the next run up? And hopefully Slver joins in on the next rally.

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 We’ll see what the markets bring our way this morning and after the Fed Speech is given. Who knows, the markets may even break upside if he discusses rate cuts this year. If we have the ICL in place for the general Markets, a half cycle dip or the 2nd daily cycle will also offer entry points on the etfs and stocks. Enjoy your Wednesday trading!

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~ALEX

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BITCOIN day 36 – I see no real progress here, and the crypto stocks remain near their recent lows too. This may just run up and chop along the 200sma, and then roll over.