Wednesday March 5th
Trumps big speech before congress may affect the markets Wednesday, so we’ll see what the futures look like in the General Markets, Precious Metals, and Bitcoin. Lets take a look at the charts …
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THE SPX finally broke the dcl and then it bounced off of the 200sma. Could this be the low, if the Trump address to congress is deemed as bullish? A day 34 dcl & possible ICL is possible, so we’ll look for a swing low and a move above the 10sma (a close above the 10 sma is more convincing).
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THE NASDAQ was leading the way lower, breaking below the last dcl last week and helping us to see more clearly that this was likely an ICL drop. AT day 34 will we have the lows in place? It is possible. Trumps big speech before congress may affect the markets Wednesday
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WTIC – Oil sold off and then recovered, so it looks like a shakeout for now, but Oil has been breaking down and has more time to continue breaking down, even if we get a bounce here. Trump does say that he wants to drill, drill, drill Oil and add to supply, and surprisingly OPEC said that they will increase production. THAT LOWERS PRICE, so I am thinking that Oil will continue to break down in the big picture, despite this reversal.
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THE USD continued lower, as expected.
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I captured this chart of GOLD this morning: We FINALLY got a pullback that is visible and this looks to be day 3, with a swing low at the 34 sma.
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SILVER has a swing low at the 50sma and at a rising trendline, so it looks like the Precious Metals are ready to push higher again.
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GDX – The GDX ETF landed in between the 34sma and the 50 sma, so I used the Fibonacci Arc to measure the move and the drop lands right on the first level and reversed. We now have a swing low and the 10sma is actually right where price is now ( $40.60), so this does look to be the dcl.
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KGC – I liked the price action in some of the Miners yesterday midday after the initial drop in the morning, so I posted a couple of charts, and this was one of them. Price gapped open, dropped to Mondays lows, and then pushed higher bullishly.
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GFI also dropped and recovered, and GFI is almost back to the cycle highs, so I have pointed out some of the stronger Miners, and then you have your laggers that could play catch up.
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HMY released earnings yesterday and had a bullish push higher back above the 50sma. That appears to have been a slight shake out and it should move higher. HMY was and is a buy.
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So we’ll just have to see if anything that the US President said in his speech to congress affects the futures one way or the other, but the ‘timing’ is acceptable for a low in the General Markets. Gold, Silver, and the Miners do look to have their dcl in place, and Bitcoin also could have the lows in place. It dropped yesterday, but a higher low could hold up IF THE GENERAL MARKETS have their low in place. If the General Markets bounce and drop again, I think that Bitcoin would too, but the Precious Metals lows looks to be in place. Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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FROM TUESDAYS REPORT:
If I continue my count, taken from the lowest point of the prior daily cycle (Orange arrow), I would have BITCOIN entering the day 50+ area, and I have seen lows develop in the 50+ area, but usually closer to 60. I just have to wonder if Fridays summit will push Bitcoin one way or the other. Right now this looks like railroad tracks.
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BITCOIN I wanted to wait until the morning to see what Bitcoin would do after Trumps speech, since he is hosting a Crypto Summit this Friday. He didn’t really mention it in his speech, but Bitcoin has now moved above the 10sma again and it really does have a bullish look to it. I cannot say with certainty if THE LOWS are in place, because the timing is tricky and the Crypto Summit could push this either way.
I was hoping for another dip or another low BEFORE the summit, because I do think that the summit could be a catalyst for a push higher. All one can do to be safe is to wait or start small, because crypto stocks broke to new lows and they are pretty cheap again.
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RIOT has dropped back to $8 for example. Do you want to buy it here? Well, it could drop back to $7 again, if Bitcoin falls, or it could double if Bitcoin takes off, so its a tough call. You could start small and add later, or you could just wait to be safe, realizing that you may only catch the run from $11 to $16+ (or more). This is a reversal candle though, as the General Markets tried to reverse higher.
