March 6th – Jobless Claims, Can We Stick The Landing?
DATA – This is important data and the markets’ charts are also at an important place, so this will move us one way or the other. Let’s go to the charts and you’ll see what I mean…
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The SPX reversal at the 200sma on day 34 should normally be the dcl. Timing is right and support was supportive, but…
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SPX – We have seen big reversal days that did not hold up recently on this same selloff, so we’ll need to see if the wash out is over or are sellers still a bit jittery?
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WTIC – Oil actually DID break the ICL and then bounced back. I actually think that this is a warning sign, even though it bounced back. I have discussed that we are likely in a 3rd daily cycle and these can have 40-50 days, so this is EARLYISH in the 3rd daily cycle.
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WTIC – In my past weekend reports I mentioned the danger of losing this triangle to the downside. I even said in this weeks report that OPEC wants to increase production and Trump wants to DRILL, DRILL, DRILL! This could cause a surplus and a price drop. Oil traded under $10 in 2020, but I don’t think we’ll see that again. The next leg down looks like it would take out the $60 area and drop right to the $40 level though. Oil can bounce here, but it really looks ready to roll over.
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I have been expecting The USD to be weak and roll over.
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GOLD – I just noticed that with this bounce almost back to the highs, the MACD is open and aiming lower. If that doesn’t change rather quickly, that usually indicates to me that we will chop around and could double top rather than rally, but it is only day 4, so let’s give it a week or so and see how it looks then.
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SILVER – Now look at Silvers MACD after only 3 days. It is curling upward and that is what I was expecting to see with Gold. Silver looks to have a dcl and should be on day 3, because it …
1. Broke the downtrend line
2. Reversed at the 50sma and gave us a swing low, and…
3. Closed above the 10sma
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I wanted to show you a SILVER similarity, so that you ‘see’ how this could play out. It could run strong.
1. First look at the run out of the lows in Jan-Feb 2024, it was a choppy run higher, similar to Silver last month.
2. Then we saw a dcl and a run almost straight up for maybe 10 days in March. I am pointing to day 3 in March 2024 and now.
3. Day 3 brought it to new highs in March 2024, but Silver just kept running higher. It is possible that we could see something like that now, so it may not be best to sell for gains at this point.
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GDX does look to be confirmed as having a dcl in place. We saw a nice 3.5% surge higher and that closed it above the 10sma.
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GDX also looks like a large double bottom cup, and we just finished the handle.
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SSRM reversed at the support of the 20 ema, so I poined that out in the commenting area.
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Recently I pointed out SVM as having good earnings and crawling along the 200sma. Yesterday it recovered the 200sma so I pointed that out in the first hour.
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SVM then closed up almost 8% and I like the potential that it has to climb back up to the $5.20 area and beyond.
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GFI is actually already back near the highs after reversing at the 34 sma. That was a strong run from $13 to $19 this year, but there is one thing that I wanted to mention…
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One thing that I wanted to mention was that GFI is actually almost at all-time highs again. It would be great if it could break out and run, but I did notice that it has rallied higher to this upper trendline in the past, and then stalled out. If it cannot get above $20 fairly quickly, it may have run its course.
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Yesterday I pointed out the KGC move above the 20 ema and downtrend line…
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KGC continued higher, so these do look good and if they chop higher, you can add on the dips.
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AEM is almost right back at the highs too.
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Copper was mentioned in the commenting area and FCX & TGB were discussed as opportunities if Copper runs again. TGB is pinched between the 50sma and 200sma right now.
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Most of this report was written on Wednesday evening, but I do add a little in the morning, since Precious Metals and Bitcoin trade overnight. Right now, it is 6:30 a.m. ET and I see that the Nasdaq Futures are down over 250 points and the SPX is down 60 points. Gold and Silver have pulled back too, and Bitcoin lost the 20 ema, so I think that the futures after the Jobless Claims report will be important for the General Markets. We’ll see what happens at 8:30 a.m. ET. Gold, Silver, and the Miners do look to have the DCLs confirmed, but they can pull back too. Enjoy your Thursday trading?
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN (6 a.m. Thursday) has broken above the 20ema a few times, but it hasn’t been able to stay above it. We have a day 46 count from low to low, and we also have …
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We also have a MACD cross. The chart looks bullish.
President Trump will host and deliver remarks at the first-ever White House Crypto Summit on Friday, March 7, and it seems like that could give Bitcoin and Crypto currencies a good push higher. Some Crypto stocks are starting to follow Bitcoin too, but they are still very oversold and near new lows…
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Some Crypto stocks are starting to follow Bitcoin too, but they are still very oversold and near new lows.
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In fact, most Crypto stocks got crushed in the last sell off, as seen here with MARA. Mara did just move from $12.50 to $15, but you have not missed the big rally that it usually has done. Even if you’re waiting for Bitcoin to close above the 20ema or break that downtrend line, you could still get a run in MARA from say $16 to $32. That is a 100% move. Or, as mentioned in past reports, you can start a small position and add on the dip or the rip higher, whichever comes first. MARA has strong MACD divergence at the recent lows.
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WULF: Many of these stocks have been cut in half or more, so buying early or ‘Buy & Hold’ can be costly if the timing is wrong. That beautiful rally in October from roughly $3.75 to over $9 has been completely undone in all of this chop.
