Thursday March 20th – Bottom Fishing
Today we do have more market moving DATA, but at this point I still think that we have the lows in place.
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SPX – We were watching for a ‘swing low’ to be confirmed with a move & preferably a close above the 10 sma. We now have that, so this should be day 4 of a new daily cycle. There are no guarantees, but if we get ‘short covering’ & buying together, we could see a rapid recovery and a V-Bottom. So far, we have a choppy bottom and jobless claims today.
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NASDAQ – We have the broken downtrend that I said was a bullish step in the right direction. Now we have a post-fed close above the 10 sma here too. The Lows should be in place, even if we temporarily drop on Jobless claims.
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THE IWM had a clear swing low, and close above the 10sma on Monday. With the IWM we already have a MACD cross and the RSI is closing in on 50%, so this is a good clue that the Lows are in place too.
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In the reports over the last couple of weeks, I have pointed out a good number of stocks on my watchlist that either had very strong runs in 2024, or milder pull backs to support. We also know that NFLX, NVDA, GOOG, MSFT , etc as very bullish stocks/companies in 2024, so let’s see how a few of them are set up now.
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NFLX dropped sharply in early March, but it bottomed and has started a V-bottom recovery. On Wednesday it started to break above the 50sma , so I posted this in the comments section. It closed a little higher than it was here. A stock like this could be back at the highs in a week or so.
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PLTR gapped open up 24% after earnings release (that’s a good sign) and ran higher in early February, but it got caught up in the market sell off and now that Gap is filled. It now looks ready to breakout above the 50sma again. Are you ready for this?? In 2024, PLTR ran from $15 to $125! In August PLTR was $21 and it just ran fast to $125. $80 to $125 or better should be no problem if the markets remain in bull mode.
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SOFI did a perfect reversal at the 50sma as a buy. This ran from $6 to $18 at the end of 2024, so I drew a return to the highs in green (Bullish General Markets) or a run to the 50sma and a stall (if the markets get choppy and difficult again). In a Bull market, this could easily run from $11 to $30 or more.
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THE USD is flatlining so far.
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GOLD made another new high on day 13, so this may be heading toward becoming a R.T. Daily Cycle, but also…
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Yesterday I pointed out that the first run barely pulled back, so I drew this 2nd leg up as another equal runaway move. I copied the first run to the current run. I said:
I remember waiting for Gold to pull back in that first run, and it would only give us 1 or 2 day dips. WHAT IF THAT HAPPENS HERE TOO? I have copied the first run and placed it over our current run.
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Yesterday for Silver I mentioned…
SILVER: Trying to find daily cycles in this massive chop was tough. I do see 2 with 23 day daily cycles, so that is a possibility that we are on the 3rd daily cycle.
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SILVER is still not running smoothly. It is in a resistance zone, and it actually pulled back on Wednesday, day 13.
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From yesterday
GDX: …My expectation for several reasons is that we should honestly still be going higher. Measured moves, Cycles, etc. pointed to higher price, so we’ll just have to see if Gold can continue higher after a possible half cycle dip. If Gold does a half cycle dip, Miners may too.
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Gold moved higher on day 13 and Miners (GDX) moved higher too, bit the peak is till day 12.
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We basically knew what the Fed was going to say and do, and the markets reacted with an upward move, giving the General Markets a swing low and a close above the 10sma. It was a steep relentless selloff, so now we’ll see if we can get some buying & short covering to push it quickly higher. If investors are still jittery, we could get a choppy bottom, but the lows really should hold up from here for a while. The USD & Oil are still just chopping at the lows and the Precious Metals sector continues to be bullish. Hopefully the Jobless Claims Report is just another bump in the road and then we continue higher. Enjoy your Thursday trading!
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~ALEX
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ON TUESDAY, BITCOIN was struggling at the 200sma and it was also still under the 20 ema. That gave us a current low at day 57 and we would either be at day 64 if one more drop takes place, or we have the lows and we are at day 7.
I said, “The MACD improved but I’d really like to see Bitcoin get above these 2 areas (20 ema, 200sma, & then also the downtrend line) to show us some sign of strength.”
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On Wednesday morning Bitcoin started to break above that 200sma and also the 20 ema, so I posted this in the comments section as a ‘heads up’. I also mentioned that Crypto stocks started to push higher after the Fed Decision and during his speech.
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Bitcoin is pulling back this morning, but it remains above the 200sma. It looks like we are on day 9 after a day 57 low / reversal was put into place.
