March 15th Weekend Report
The Good News? The relentless selling that we have been seeing is going to end, and a rally that follows may be very good. I already see stocks setting up and bottoming ahead of the markets, and some that landed on support already reversed higher and look pretty good. Also the Precious Metals sector has been doing very well, so that is the Good news. I will start with the last 2 charts in my Friday report, as my first 2 charts in this report, and then we will see where we are after Fridays trading.
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I wanted to mention that this is an extreme sell off with the NASDAQ at day 42, but could it drop into the Fed Mtg at day 46? It can, since a 46 day drop is not impossible. Now let me show you something else…
NASDAQ – This sell off does not look as bad as the 2020 Covid sell off or the 2018 sell off before it, right? So this selling COULD POSSIBLY continue to the Fed Mtg next week, but then take a look at how both of those deeper sell offs ended. They were V-Bottoms that rallied back to new highs, climbing a wall of worry. Do you remember Covid? It was a pandemic in all of 2020, but look at that chart. It bottomed in early 2020. That ‘Corona-Virus’ was supposed to be the end of all good earnings, since buyers were all locked up in their houses. Who would buy when many businesses shut down? Well, some of the best gains followed that drop right when That ‘Corona Virus’ became a pandemic. My point? If the bull market will remain intact, it will again eventually climb that wall of worry. For now, we need to just let the markets do their thing in this environment of uncertainty.
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On Friday, The SPX closed the week with a nice weekly reversal candle that regained the 50 week ma. This could be the ICL as we head into the Fed Meeting next week.
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With The NASDAQ I just wanted to point out how the deep scary sell offs in the past ended up rallying back with a V-Bottom. WHAT WE WOULD DO IN THIS SITUATION IS BUY THE LOWS, ride it up for the next 2 -3 weeks and see how it looks at that point.
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THE SOXX has not looked Bullish for a while, and I have pointed that out, but right now it also doesn’t look like it sold off as much as the NASDAQ & SPX. Friday gave us a reversal candle here too, and it could be forming a double-bottom low. The MACD is very weak, so we’ll watch a bounce when the lows are in (You could go long semis or SOXL), and see how it acts, especially at the upper trendline or 50 week ma.
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WTIC is at the lows and the daily cycle is only halfway finished with the 3rd daily cycle time-wise. That means that we are L.T. and have plenty of time to break down, even if we bounce, so my analysis is that Oil should break down & then sell off when it eventually arrives at the next ICL.
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THE USD WEEKLY – The USD plunged into support and I feel that it can bounce and still drop further (as drawn). Please read the chart and see the weekly Stochastics.
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GOLD tagged $3000+ and then pulled back or stalled a little on Friday. I was complaining that the MACD wasn’t turning up a week ago, but this week took care of that. Gold can climb higher, but this is day 10 at resistance (Round number $3000 can become a ‘sell point’ for some), so we could dip into a half cycle low and then push higher again. 1 simple word of caution is ‘Timing’. The last deepest low was 4 months ago. Gold could peak this week, next week, in 3 weeks, we just don’t know.
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GOLD WEEKLY – If I draw a trendline at the peaks, we are almost at that line, but price CAN tag and run up along that line too. You may recall that my original target for Gold was $3040, we’ll see if we can at least get that.
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SILVER DAILY – DO YOU SEE THE DIFFERENCE HERE? Gold is 4 months ahead of the deepest low, but Silver has not been in sync with Gold. Silvers low was at the end of December, so we are only 2.5 months ahead of that low, so Silver SHOULD HAVE more time before peaking. That may help Gold to continue going too. Silver should break out and hopefully run.
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SILVER WEEKLY – Silver can break out and push higher, it could even have a nice sharp rally higher, but my one concern is what? We have a higher high in price last year with a lower high in the MACD. Price then dropped into an ICL. We will now have the 3rd higher high in price with a 3rd lower high in the MACD. That usually limits the upside a bit, but is not really bearish in the short term (we are using a weekly chart). Silvers weekly stochastic is NOT overbought.
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GDX is on day 10 and made a new recent high. This should continue to run higher over time, because this is a 2nd daily cycle for the GDX.
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GDX WEKLY– We saw a very nice wave 1 out of the ICL. This is now the 2nd leg up and notice that the volume increased as it broke out above the February highs. That is a good sign, so we really should see more upside (a 2nd leg up). GDX was up almost 5% this week.
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There are many of the smaller 5-letter Miners/Explorers that may or may not be in our basket. Every now and then Mark M may mention one that is starting to run, and he mentioned FGOVF. When I took a look at Freegold Ventures on a daily and monthly chart, I really like what I see so here it is…
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FGOVF – Just take a look at what it did last year as the 50sma crossed above the 200sma. That is a triple, but then it gave a lot of the gains up, but the 50 didn’t lose the 200sma. Now it is bouncing along the 200sma and 50sma and this is a bullish set up. I would call this a buy right here too. And the weekly?…
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FGOVF WEEKLY – After dropping from Februarys peak, it now has 2 reversal candles in a row. It has dropped 2 weeks in a row, where buyers came in and gave it a reversal for 2 weeks in a row. It is acting bullishly.
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The Precious Metals sector has rewarded us nicely, but almost every other sector dropped steeply into what should be the ICL. I am already seeing some stocks bottom first and buyers and short covering rapidly running them higher. If you look up QBTS, QUBT, IONQ, RGTI, ARQQ, QSI, QMCO, etc – these already began to run.
4 Up days last week, Friday up 47%.
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Bottomed 2 weeks ago, ignored market selling, and up $7-$11. Up 28% Friday alone.
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I see others setting up now, so we should have a good buying opportunity very soon. This being a fed Week, we may see a rally triggered by the Fed and then short covering & Buying. Bitcoin seems to have bottomed too, I’ll have that below. Enjoy your weekend, see you on Monday!!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN – Looking at several of the indicators, it does now seem that Bitcoin put in a low on my count of day 57. It is not showing strength yet, but once it gets above the green 20 ems and the upper trendline, it could accelerate. The Crypto Miners seem to be bottoming too, and may start to climb higher when the General Markets move up too.
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The Crypto Miners seem to be bottoming too, and may start to climb higher when the General Markets move up too. Right now most are right near the recent lows, so we haven’t missed a good rally here. EVEN IF THESE ONLY RECOVER TO JANUARY HIGHS–It is still almost a 100% move for many of these.
