Friday March 28th – Still Looking For Clues

DATA

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THE SPX gave us a ‘Doji’ or a candle of indecision yesterday. We now have a trend line or channel that has developed and we’ll see if it stays in tact after todays morning data. Today will be day 11 and we have a day 8 ‘peak’ so far, so this would be L.T. if it peaks as is.

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SPX – This is what we do not want to see. It would indicate that we have another daily cycle lower in front of us, rather than an ICL in place.

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I WANT TO REVIEW OILS CYCLE COUNT: Oil can have daily cycles that last 45-50+ days.

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WTIC FEB 14 – So we looked at a day 49 dcl and then I saw a small bounce at day 53 and thought that might be the next dcl.

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WTIC FEB 26 – With that day 53 dcl, we only saw a 3 day bounce and Oil rolled over. This still looks like the count, and we’d be on a 3rd daily cycle…

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WTIC – This would have a day 18 low & a bounce, so I don’t feel that we’ve seen the next dcl yet. That would be a half cycle low at day 18. This looks like a solid bounce and has an RSI of 56 and a MACD cross, but it should only be day 34 and I have expected Oil to tag that 50sma & roll over.

 

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GOLD made a new high overnight of $3085 and it is on day 20. Gold has been stronger than most miners, but several they are trying to follow to new highs.

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SILVER is not at new highs, but it has moved to a new daily cycle high at day 19.  Silver stocks are very choppy, but trying to keep up with Silvers push higher. SILVER IS ALMOST BACK AT OCTOBER HIGHS, so it’s not doing as well as Gold, which is at all time highs again.

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SILJ represents Junior Silver Miners – You can see that many silver Miners have not made it back to the October highs, but they are bullish and trying to keep up with Silver. Volume buying has been increasing, so the recent rally was almost straight up in early March. Silver is on day 19, so Silver it is possible that miners could play catch up to October highs.

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GDX – Gold Miners have done well, reflecting Golds rally. GDX is above October highs, it is day 19, and it could continue to climb before coming due for a dip into a dcl. The first rally was exceptionally long though, so it is also possible that this one will be shorter to balance time out.

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The General Markets can move higher and start to add to recent gains, but it is also possibly just a bounce in the sell off that started in February. When we came due for a dcl (possible ICL) I said that we would normally buy that swing low in case it rallies quickly with short covering and buyers.  We would then have to start taking a look at it around day 10 or so for clues. Right now it is not giving solid clues as to whether or not it will rally higher or start to sell off and break the lows. I was hoping for and mentioning a possible V-Bottom that would clearly show an ICL, but as you can see here… we have a choppy channel higher at this time. You can raise stops, but there is a chance that you’d be stopped out and have to get back in if it takes off higher next week.

We need more time, but the Precious Metals sector, Gold, Silver, and Miners have remained bullish despite general market price action. Bitcoin is similar to the General Markets, I’ll discuss it below. I will be going to my mothers to help her out this morning, so I wont be in the commenting area steadily until possible noon. I may try to pop in before then, to see what is taking place in the markets, and I’ll report what I see if I see anything interesting. We are heading into spring time here in New England, so there is work to be done around the house 🙂   Enjoy your Friday trading.

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~ALEX

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BITCOIN – On day 17 we see Bitcoin losing the 20ema and the 200sma again. This is not a failure, but it is weak and cannot seem to put in a rally yet. WE DO NOT WANT TO SEE THAT $76,600 LOW TAKEN OUT, or this could sell off into a failed Intermediate Cycle.   LET ME SHOW YOU SOMETHING…

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LET ME SHOW YOU SOMETHING…

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BITCOIN – Last year we saw a sharp sell off low /ICL, and then the first daily cycle spent a long time forming a weak looking double bottom, and then it took off. You can see that here. Unless this takes off higher soon, We could be doing the same thing here. Why do I see it that way?

Because that double bottom was the first 30 day half of the 60 day daily cycle and we are at day 18. Bitcoin will need to rally soon and then drop into a higher day 30ish low, or it is now starting to dip into a day 30ish low, forming a double bottom again.