Friday March 14th – Still Waiting
FROM YESTERDAY:
THE SPX formed a swing low, but the 10sma is a bit higher. For that reason, I also personally want to look at this another way:
How many pops do you see recently that lasted for more than 1 day? I see no 2 day pops since that waterfall selling started. We have only had 1 green candle and then the selling resumes, so if Thursday is green and closes green, that is a noteworthy character change and a bigger swing low.
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SPX – And there it is again. 1 green candle and then the selling resumes, over & over & over. We are really getting late in this cascade lower, but it will end, and I think we’ll see the lows when we get 2 green days in a row now. The trendline will also break.
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FROM YESTERDAY:
THE NASDAQ has been selling off so steeply that it has a very tight downtrend line. I think that a break of that trendline may signal that the selling is done. We have a swing low here and any buying tomorrow will break that trendline, so again, the reaction to that data may be a clue.
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NASDAQ – No break of the trendline, the waiting continues. I used the 9 sma, but I honestly think that the selling is so steep, that the 8 ema may work here.
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WTIC & The USD were not important to my analysis yesterday. Nothing changed there.
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GOLD had a strong pop on day 9 and that helped that MACD curl upward. This looks to be another triangle breakout. As a sidenote: Spot Gold did NOT show that Gold tagged $3000, but this chart tagged $3001.
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FROM THURSDAYS REPORT:
SILVER made new recent highs on day 8 and this should continue higher. I had a target of $34ish, but it can extend. $34.86 was the former high…
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SILVER also popped on day 9 and reached that $34.68 area, almost at the former highs. It then pulled back a little, but this can still run higher and even break out.
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GDX gapped down and then went from red to Green on Wednesday, Day 8. It was at a breakout point.
GDX broke out on day 9 (Thursday). It is back near former highs, and this is playing out as expected.
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AG had another great day, up over 10% on Tuesday and almost 9% again. Volume is increasing and it has easily sliced through the major moving averages.
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NG has a similar set up as AG did last week.
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I know that this selling seems like the market selling will never end, but it is now almost straight down, we only have 1 green bounce candle at a time, and things are getting extreme. These sell offs do eventually exhaust themselves. Once it bottoms, we could honestly see a straight up rally of short covering & buying that gives us a V-Bottom, but we’ve had to be patient and let the market tell us what they want to do. A downtrend break and a move above the 10sma (preferably a close above it) should signal that the lows are in place. Let me show you something important: ‘EXTREMES’
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I wanted to mention that this is an extreme sell off with the NASDAQ, but at day 42, could it drop into the Fed Mtg at day 46? It could, a 46 day drop is not impossible. Now let me show you something else…
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NASDAQ – This sell off does not look as bad as the 2020 Covid sell off or the 2018 sell off before it, right? So this selling COULD POSSIBLY continue to the Fed Mtg next week, but then take a look at how both of those deeper sell offs ended. They were V-Bottoms that rallied back to new highs, climbing a wall of worry. Do you remember Covid? It was a pandemic in all of 2020, but look at that chart. It bottomed in early 2020. That ‘Corona-Virus’ was supposed to be the end of all good earnings, since buyers were all locked up in their houses. Who would buy when many businesses shut down? Well, some of the best gains followed that drop right when That ‘Corona Virus’ became a pandemic. My point? If the bull market will remain intact, it will again eventually climb that wall of worry. For now, we need to just let the markets do their thing in this environment of uncertainty.
In the meantime, Gold, Silver, and the Miners have been great this week! I’ll take up 4-8% or more a day, and our basket of Miners have been rewarding. Bitcoin may have bottomed, but it hasn’t taken off to the upside yet, and neither have the crypto-miners. I’ll have Bitcoin below. It is Friday, a horrible week for the Markets and a great week for the Precious Metals. We’ll see if these markets can turn it around today or next week ( FOMC next Week). Enjoy your Friday and Weekend!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN should be bottoming or should have bottomed by now. The timing has now reached day 60 from the last low. So we may have a day 57 low and this is day 3, or it is day 60 and we have 1 more quick dip to a new low after 60 plus days. Since Bitcoin stopped selling off even though the General Markets continued to cascade lower, it would seem that it may have bottomed. Crypto stocks, however, are right at the lows and may be affected by the general markets action.
