Frida March 7th

.

SPX – Daily cycles for the General Markets can end anywhere from day 35 or even into day 40+. Often times when we are seeking out an ICL, you will see bounces that just cannot hold up. That is why I drew this chart on March 5th. You see strong looking reversals, but then the markets sell off again, so…

.

THE SPX made slightly new lows again on day 36.  It is still at support of the 200 sma, but I want you to also know that it can continue to sell off, say to day 40. I call that a ‘waterfall stage’ or a ‘crescendo’.

.

So that means that it is possible to see something like this with The SPX.

.

At this point though, The NASDAQ & The SPX do resemble past ICL drops, but losing the 200sma and closing below it for a few days this time around may show additional weakness.

.

I’ll discuss this a little further int he weekend report, but…

 

If we are seeing additional weakness, then we need to be aware that the second daily cycle could be weaker and the 3rd daily cycle may start a ‘corrective phase’.   This MAY NOT happen, but we are below the 200sma for a few days now, so I want to discuss it in the weekend report.

.

BACK ON FEB 26, I Used this chart for WTIC:

 Daily cycles for Oil are often close to 50 days , so you see the first daily cycle at 49 days. Then we went to day 53 and I asked, “Did we just see the 3rd daily cycle peak already?” If so, I said that ‘Oil has a lot of time to the downside, but it may just chop lower.’

.

WTIC – So fast forward to today and oil has NOT been able to get above that day 3 peak, so it is extremely L.T. and we now broke below the ICL. We broke below the ICL on day 18, so we have weeks of downside left! If this count is correct, and I dont see how any other cycle count would fit, then we’d have 20 – 30 days left in this daily cycle.

.

THE USD has rolled over as expected, and I was calling for this back in the 3rd daily cycle. The only problem is that The USD no longer seems to affect Gold, or this drop would have sent Gold much higher this week alone.

.

GOLD finally put in a visible dip and it bounced right at the 34 sma. You can see that Gold did that on the past run higher too. Now we should only be on day 5, but I am slightly concerned with that MACDs lack of response on this push higher. We have time for that to change, but if it doesn’t change, Gold could just chop mostly sideways.

 

.

SILVER put in a low at the 50sma and this also should only be day 4 or day 5 today. Look at the MACD on Silver and you’ll see more of what I like to see, so while Silver is chopping up through this resistance area, it looks like it does want to reach prior highs at $35, and then it should push even higher. This is closer to oversold then overbought.

.

GDX is also on day 5 today and it paused with a doji candle yesterday. Take a look at the first run higher and you will see red days all the way up, but it was still a nice run higher. Yesterdays report shared charts of GFI, KGC, AEM, SSRM, SVM and TGB.

.

The General Markets are still trying to find their lows. Will todays Data help or hurt? We’ll know at 8:30 a.m.

Oil could drop or chop quite a bit lower over time, because this daily cycle does have time to do so.

The USD rolled over as expected.

Gold, Silver, and The Miners seem to be the only ‘long’ trade so far, since they put in a dcl 4 or 5 days ago and the charts set up is bullish.

Bitcoin looks pretty good actually, but Crypto Stocks are barely holding up, so it is hard to say what Bitcoin will do.  We do have that Crypto Summit being hosted at the White House today (Friday), and THAT could be a bullish push to Crypto.

Enjoy your Friday trading.

.

~ALEX

.

BITCOIN is climbing with a series of higher lows with 3 nice looking reversal candles, but some Crypto Stocks (like RIOT) almost made new lows again yesterday, so this is tricky. Are the Crypto Miners delaying in case Crypto has another drop? Or will Bitcoin breakout higher and get over the 20 ema and that downtrend line over the weekend,  after the Whitehouse Crypto Summit?

.

RIOT (& HUT, WULF, HIVE, SDIG, CAN, and more) ALMOST MADE NEW LOWS:

Are the Crypto Miners delaying in case Crypto has another drop? Are they simply weak due to the General Market selloff? Or will Bitcoin break and run higher over the weekend after the Whitehouse Crypto Summit, leaving us with RIOT and others putting in a large gap open higher on Monday?  I just cannot say for sure.