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SPX – Once again the markets were able to bounce back from the Trump Dump. Now hopefully we can get some follow through to the upside. This is only day 15.
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THE NASDAQ has been choppy and in a box consolidation, but it did regain the 50sma yesterday.
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THE IWM dropped and filled a gap on Monday and bounced back on Tuesday too. You can see that the small caps have been capped by the 50sma, so a push above that area would be a bullish move.
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THE USD popped and dropped sharply, according to this chart. This is the 4th daily cycle, and I am expecting it to remain L.T. and then roll over sooner than later.
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GOLD ran up to the top of the triangle and then it broke out and has been running away. Let’s discuss that…
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GOLD – From the first December low of the Triangle, we are on day 30. Silver looks to have put in a dcl at day 24/25. That makes for a tricky call on Gold, and that was discussed yesterday.
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SILVER breaks out of the ICL and starts to run, but I wanted to point out that it usually chops & drops quite often, rather than run straight up non-stop. You can see that it dips to the green 20 ema often, so Silver becomes a ‘buy the dip’ candidate when it does. Note: Silver can break below that 20 ema too.
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I also wanted to point that same thing out with The GDX ETF.
Right now, it feels like GDX is running away, but I wanted to remind everyone how much they hate the dips when they do come, because those dips can actually last for weeks! Take a look at each red arrow and notice that it has 5,10, even 15 days of chop at those arrows (that is 1-3 weeks of trading). In fact…
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GDX – It was just a couple of weeks ago that I heard people complaining that GDX couldn’t get out of its’ own way. GDX was ‘too choppy’, ‘too fickle’, ‘looked weak’, etc. Now we have about 6 days up and the complaints have changed to… ‘we need a pull back to buy’ and ‘GDX is running away’. So that simply means that it was a choppy start out of the lows and it is picking up steam as buyers recognize that the bull is running again.
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CDE lagged and chopped for a couple of weeks, but it broke higher recently and could start to run with Silver. Let’s zoom out…
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CDE – The real overhead trendline is due to a large triangular consolidation. These build energy, so CDE has been churning for months and once it breaks out, I think that it could run well.
1. Notice how it ran higher in early 2024. Now it has been consolidating those gains.
2. Also notice how it rode the red 200 sma in January. Support is above $6.00
3. Volume is swelling, Silver looks to have an ICL, do you own a little CDE? 🙂
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HL has basically already moved from under $5 to over $6, and it closed back above the 200sma. The big picture on these Silver charts is really starting to perk up. Let me show you what I mean using EXK and FSM.
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EXK broke above the 50 & 200sma, and in the morning it was red. It closed green and lets take a big picture look at EXK…
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EXK WEEKLY -The volume is swelling, ICL is in for Silver, and EXK has made a nice run out of the last 2 lows. Yes, it is choppy and pulls back here and there, but a buy and hold basket can pay off over time.
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FSM WEEKLY– FSM is a very bullish looking weekly chart. A triangle consolidation has formed above the original base, and in 2024 the entire year was choppy and difficult, but this shows that a consolidation formed all last year and it looks ready to go now.
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The Bull in Silver stocks looks like it is preparing to wake up and run higher over time. Owning some of these laggers in your basket of Miners could pay off over the next couple of months. Enjoy your Wednesday trading.
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN went from having a triangular consolidation out of the recent lows to a short term crash that seems to have given us a long box consolidation too. We are now on day 22 out of a possible 60, but we often see a day 30(ish) dip, so hopefully this is the dip arriving early and we can now move higher. If not, we could run up and drop into day 30 again too. I will say that I did start to see crypto stocks hold up yesterday, but that may just be that they follow Bitcoin when the general markets are acting ok.
Tuesday February 4th – Another Dump? 
Thursday February 6th
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