Wednesday February 19th – Small Changes, Small Challenges
.
THE SPX made a new high on Tuesday, day 24. It can continue higher before pulling back into the next dcl, which may not come until after day 35.
.
THE SOXX broke out of the triangular consolidation in January, but then fell back inside. It then tagged the lower level and is now pushing against the upper trend line and 200 sma again. The volume and MACD do make it look like it wants to break out.
.
THE USD is L.T. and should be dropping down into a dcl / ICL.
GOLD
GOLD is back up at the highs. I just want to mention 2 things.
1. Gold was up at the highs, but the Miners didn’t follow this time, and
2. Stockcharts makes it look like it surged from under the 8 ema to the highs all in one day yesterday, but…
.
GOLD actually traded on the U.S. holiday on Monday and then also Tuesday, as seen here with ‘spot Gold’. Gold still does not look like it put in a dcl, but the Gold stocks are starting to look like one (I’ll show that in this report).
.
SILVER is choppy and it’s a tough one to look at using accurate cycles’ counts. I have drawn this as one idea with an early dcl possibility, because the 10sma did turn lower around day 23. Basically, we do have an ICL in place, but the cycle count is unclear due to the excessive chop.
.
Gold ran back up to the highs, but THE GDX has not. This count looks clear, since it is not as choppy as Silver at all. This would be day 32 without a real dip under the 10sma along the way.
.
Some of the Miners that had a solid run higher, like HMY, are not following Gold anymore. HMY has been pulling back for the last 5 days.
.
KGC also had a nice run with Gold, but it has been dipping lower over the last few days too.
.
HL : we have also seen some bad reactions /selling to earnings reports in the silver stocks, but it may be a temporary ‘knee-jerk’ reaction, until Silver gets running more smoothly.
.
So the General Markets are not just flying higher like they have in the past, but we did see new all-time highs yesterday and more upside should be possible. I do want to note that some of the formerly Bullish runners are struggling, so we may see a change taking place in the markets as time goes on. AMZN, GOOG, and MSFT for example, sold off below the 50sma and remain there, as the markets made new highs.
AMZN is an example of that. With the Markets at all-time highs, it is weak and actually lost the 50sma for the first time since the last ICL. I also liked AAOI, and it is struggling, so I’ll keep an eye on things and see if this continues.
.
Some Miners are dipping lower despite Golds push to new highs again. This may be an indication that we are getting a dcl for Miners and Gold may finally follow, but as I write this report, Gold just made new all-time highs again! Silver stocks actually look really weak, but that may be because Silver itself hasn’t made a strong run back to prior highs yet. I am hoping that Silver stocks can make up for lost time, but it is frustrating and earnings misses have been causing a quick sell off for Miners. It may just be a day or 2 down and then they start to recover, but that is still very frustrating when overall that sector should be bulletproof. Bitcoin has been very boring, I’ll discuss that below, enjoy your Wednesday trading.
.
~ALEX
.
FROM THE WEEKEND REPORT:
Bitcoin continues to chop sideways in this long boring consolidation. At this point, we do NOT want to see a break down below that green arrow, or it could be a real breakdown that continues for months if that was day 1.
A break higher could get quite bullish. The yellow line is the 20 ema, and I’m just seeing it act as short-term resistance in this chop. A move above $100,000 would be bullish.
.
Bitcoin is on day 37 Wednesday and it still has not been able to move above the 20 ema. I did see that CIFR, IREN, and a few other crypto stocks are holding up and doing ok, but it is nothing to get excited about yet.
