Wednesday February 12th

2 DATA points today seem important to the markets. We have premarket inflation data at 8:30 am, and then Chairman Powell testifies to Congress starting at 10 a.m. ET. I am expecting the markets to break to new highs sooner than later though…

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At day 20, The SPX has chopped along and left behind a day 8 peak. Coming out of an ICL, I would expect this to become a R.T. Daily cycle, so I am expecting the Markets to push higher over time.

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THE NASDAQ has been very choppy for the last couple of months too.

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WTIC – Oil likely put in a dcl and has spent this week green after 4 weeks of mostly red selling. Where does this leave us? Oil can still remain choppy and chop around, or it could break out -or- down, because…

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In The Weekend Report I mentioned this about Oil:

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WTIC WEEKLY – Oil dropped this week and is seeking out a dcl. If it forms as an ICL, it may then bottom & run up and breakout from this long downtrend. If, however, it is just a 3rd daily cycle and then a 4th one is needed to get to the ICL?  That could lead to a breakdown, because we are now deep enough into that Apex that an ICL could become a loss of support. The next daily cycle will show us Oils set up as Bullish or Bearish longer term.

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GOLD has been running strong, but yesterday we saw a dogi up near $3000. This could be the temporary peak for Gold, since a dcl is due to come into play. Let’s discuss that…

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GOLD – If I start the count from the ‘last tag of the triangles lows’ that puts us at a day 28 peak. We could drop for a few days if that is the case.  A slightly different view…

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GOLD – If we start counting from the Dec 19 low, we would add 6 days to that and that would give us a day 34 peak, so a quicker drop would develop.

 Conclusion: I would say that we are on day 28 and the inflation data and the Fed speech today may add to the weight of Golds run. After this many days higher, it is very unlikely that Gold could Breakout above $300o for any sustained amount of time.  I have been expecting a pullback, but this has also been a very determined run.

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SILVER – I have pointed out that with Spot silver the low is also different from the stockcharts view of Silver too. With this view, the low is Dec 19 and that would put silver on day 34.  With Spot Silver, we are on day 28. Silver is pulling back more obviously than Gold.

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SILVER -As a visual, this is what I am talking about, with Spot Silvers low coming in on Dec 31st, giving us day 28 as opposed to the stockcharts Dec 19.   EITHER WAY, we are likely dipping into a dcl.

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GDX bottomed on Dec 31, so it is on day 28 with a day 27 peak.  USUALLY you will see a straight up run to the former highs in October after that downtrend of the wedge is broken, but this will likely dip and then run up to those highs.

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The bulls remain in control and if or when we get dips, you can add to positions on the dips. Sometimes when you are late in a daily cycle the dips can last a couple of days, if you are earlier in a daily cycle the dips can last for a few days, kind of what we are seeing with Silver right now. We have some Inflation data and Fed testimony taking place today, so we should be able to see how that affects the markets early in the day. Enjoy your Wednesday trading!

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~ALEX

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BITCOIN as been chopping along near the lows and is due for a low to be put in place timewise. So far I do not really see Crypto stocks trying to lead the way higher, but that also may be due to the fact that the General Markets are chopping sideways too.