Tuesday February 25th – The Good and The Bad

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SPX – The general markets sold off further on Monday, closing below the 50sma. They did start to bounce back intraday, but then they sold back off to the lows into the close. I explained in the weekend report that on day 28, we could be dropping into a dcl. It can bounce around, or maybe we will get an early dcl, but those lows (ICL) really shouldn’t be taken out and we have a day 25 peak (R.T.).   We will watch how this plays out, and I am watching stocks to see how they survive the chop & drop.

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NASDAQ -THIS is getting too close to the lows. I’ll just repeat what I said with the SPX…

The NASDAQ can bounce around, or maybe we will get an early dcl, but those lows really shouldn’t be taken out.   We will watch how this plays out, and I am watching stocks to see how they survive the chop & drop. I’ll admit- this looks a little ugly, but the prior drops did bounce back, so this can too.

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WTIC – Oil dropped and reversed higher again. Oil is very choppy and after that big rally in December to January, it is having trouble finding some follow through buying again.

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The USD has a failed daily cycle, and it could put in a dcl at any time, since some daily cycles have been long and others are short. I expect the USD to still dip even lower, so a bounce out of a dcl may just lead to another failed daily cycle.

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GOLD – What can I say? Gold has been in a strong bull run after giving us a choppy low at the ICL (triangle). I’d like to see Gold continue to run higher, because…

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I’d like to see Gold continue to run higher, because my initial target has not been met yet.

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GOLD WEEKLY – I’ve mentioned that I had a target of $3040 originally for the Cup & handle upside target.  That still has not been met, yet.

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THIS WEEKEND I SHOWED THIS CHANNEL AND THE NON-STOP CHOP:  I said…

Looking at SILVER this way in an upward channel, I am still just seeing moves to higher highs, but again, it is mostly a sideways chop that we see week after week. This is very frustrating, and I have been chopped about in my silver stocks too. They are off of the lows, but can’t hold on to the gains.

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So SILVER is at the bottom of the channel and tagging the 20ema. We saw a day 23 dip (1/2 cycle low?), we saw a day 34 dip (mild dcl or not?), so I’m wondering if Silver is just going to ride the 20ema like Gold did? I think that Silver & Silver stocks may be a buy here near the channel lows, even though it still may chop a bit.

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GDX dropped to the 20 ema and bounced. This could finally give us a more visible dcl if it now starts to head higher.

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GDX I usually count cycle timing using the main metal Gold, but since it is in a runaway mode, the days off of the lows for GDX are now day 36, with a day 31 peak. This very well could become the dcl if it starts to move higher, so let’s talk about Miners… 

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After a VERY STRONG RUN, GFI is at the upper trendline of upward sloping channel. This was SLIGHTLY concerning to me, because each time it made it up here, it then chopped & sold off. The question for me was, ‘Can it breakout and run further?’ I would say yes, if Gold keeps running, so I am going to show you a short-term chart of GFI, but first…

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GDX is not overbought & it is not at prior highs, so I’d like to think that Miners like GFI do still have a good amount of upside left in them. This weekend with this chart I said:

I am still hoping for acceleration to the upside over the next daily cycle or 2.

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So back to GFI short term:

GFI released earnings last week and popped and dropped on strong financial results. It was up 3% on Monday (yesterday). It could chop and churn sideways, or it could break out and run.

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KGC broke out and then back tested a support area and bounced on Monday. I would have expected it to drop to the red 50sma, but if this reversal at support holds and Miners put in a dcl, this could be the end of the downside for KGC.  I re-started a position at $11.

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AEM did not sell off that much and is finding support at the 20 ema. This could be a buy area with a stop too.

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AG released good earnings report last week and it moved higher. It then sold off a bit when we had Fridays sell off, but it didn’t drop all that much, likely due to the positive earnings.  On Monday it started to move higher again, so I posted this in the comments area. It then ran up to $5.73 at the 50sma and is possibly ready to break out above that 50sma again.

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SVM – Take a look at how SVM acted after their earnings report. It was a good report, so now we see SVM pushing on the 200sma and bullishly churning sideways. It did NOT selloff much last Friday, so this is a bullish set up and a buy.  Let me show you the earnings headlines too, which hopefully indicates that they won’t need to do an offering…

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SSRM also released their earnings last week and & it then gave us a 13% pop. It is now flagging and the point is that it also didn’t sell off very much last Friday, again likely because they had a good earnings report.

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Finally

BTG – I did show you BTG last week when they released earnings and it broke through the 200sma. Friday it remained green and Monday it sold off and recovered. BTG is showing strength during the chop too, so look for the Miners that had positive earnings reports and you may find strength to buy or add to your basket.

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The General Markets are choppy, but the Gold and Silver Miners may be settling down into a dcl. I showed you a few with good earnings reports that have resisted the selling, so that may be a place to focus for now. Enjoy your Tuesday trading!

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~ALEX

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This weekend I reported:

BITCOIN has a bullish triangle or possible pennant, but as time goes on, it is getting late.  We need an upside break out sooner than later and the weekly chart highlights why I feel that way.

 

I THEN SHARED THIS CONCERN: Something to keep an eye on.

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BITCOIN WEEKLY also has a perfect 5 wave run higher. I’m not a huge E.W. guy, but I obviously watch for A-B-C moves, 5 wave moves, etc and when I see 5 waves looking complete, I have to respect that.  So can this run higher? Yes, it has ‘time’ to do so in the big picture, even in a 4 year phase, but the 5 waves shown and lack of strength lately will have me cautious.  A break of the lows is obviously bearish.

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BITCOIN lost the triangle overnight on day 42. That is a bit concerning if we get follow through, because a drop below the green arrow is a failed daily cycle. I would NOT be holding any crypto stocks through this chop and possible drop. If this drops into an ICL from here, can it then rally higher?  Yes, it can, but we’ll discuss that in more detail when we get there. For now, I will draw one chart of that possibility…

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If this drops into an ICL, can it then rally higher?  Yes, it can. Let me just say this:

1. I do see that 5 wave move as possibly complete (with a double top), so I am a little cautious now.

2. However, we are now at day 43. If we break down and put in an ICL I cannot rule out a strong rally that finally gets us to that $120,00 area, but for now I want to be cautious. Day 43 is getting later in the cycles timing and the triangle broke to the downside so far.

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6 a.m. UPDATE: This report was written on Monday night.

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Overnight BITCOIN lost not only that triangle, but the lows of this consolidation were taken out on day 43. That could give us a lot of time to chop & drop further. We are already reaching $87,000. Now this clearly looks like a double top, at least in the short term.