Thursday February 27th – Jobless Claims : And It Makes Me Wonder
Today we will get the latest Jobless Claims report and it makes me wonder: Will all of the recent lay-offs and Government job losses going on with Trumps first months in office finally show up today? And if so, because we are in the middle of a market sell off, will it be taken as good news or bad?
1. It could be considered ‘good’, because some think that if the economy looks to be weakening, rate cuts should come quicker? Or
2. It could be considered ‘Bad’ because, well… job losses are bad. Lay-offs and Higher jobless claims just sounds bad and makes the economy look weak or s though it is slowing down. So it makes me wonder.
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The SPX (the general markets) bounced out of the sell off, but as you can see, they couldn’t hold on to the gains. This is why I wonder what will happen after the Jobless Claims release. Will we get a bounce that is sustainable? Or the drop continues? The good news is that Miners bounced and did not sell off into the close with the markets.
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WTIC – I think that Oil is failing. The count is very difficult to read in all of this choppiness, but if this count is correct?
1. We have a 49 day first daily cycle,
2. A 53 day 2nd daily cycle, but
3. Then we see the 3rd daily cycle failed with a day 3 peak. If so, this is only day 13 and Oil can chop lower for weeks!
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I showed the USD as likely ready to dcl and I see a bullish wedge, so…
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USD – I expect 1 more daily cycle lower, so this bounce could be capped at the 50sma as a back test.
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GOLD is finally pausing, chopping and trading below the 10sma. Does that MACD concern me? It may a little, but take a look at the June – November run. The MACD did cross lower a few times in sideways chop, yet price still ran higher.
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GOLD : One thing that I am keeping in the back of my mind is that Gold used to put in 5-6 month Intermediate cycles. An ICL would come along roughly every 6 months. Lately, we have had prolonged chop, yet milder dips that gave us ICLs every 4-5 months. Since the last low was in November, we are in that time period that we might just start to chop and gradually dip lower soon. So…
Since the last low was in Mid-November, we are now roughly at 3.5 months. Some of these were 4 months, the last one was 5 months, so we could rally one more time to the $3040 target that I thought we might see, and then chop into the next low in March or April? Or Gold could just get choppy. Hopefully Silver wants to run higher now, because Silver and GDX bottomed in December.
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SILVER actually bottomed in December, so it has been very choppy, but it is also only 2.5 months old. It should have time to push higher.
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Silver is crawling along the top of the 34 sma, and it does have a similar look to the time in October when it crawled along the top of the 34 sma too. The MACD crossed down both times, but in October when Price rallied, it crossed back up.
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From Wednesdays report: I said…
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GDX reversed on day 37 out of the lows. We could be seeing the formation of a dcl.
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GDX bottomed in December too. We did get some nice follow through on that reversal and this may be day 1.
GDX is just shy of the 34 sma and the 38% Fib retrace, so we’ll see if this can just continue higher with a dcl at day 37. I liked what GDX, GDXJ, SILJ, & the Miners did today despite the general market sell off.
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GDXJ – Reversed higher, but at the end of the day it didn’t sell off with the markets.
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SILJ closed up 2.31 % and is above the 34sma. I liked the Silver stocks and I’d LOVE for those to catch up to Gold stocks. Even just running back to recent highs is not a bad trade. That would be SILJ from roughly $9.50 to $14.
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Did you see BARRICK?
After that nice earnings POP pushed it through the 200sma, it ran into the dip of the recent dcl drop. Now that simply looks like a back-test and it does look ready to continue higher. I like the set up. Volume, RSI, and MACD are strong. If Gold can move higher again, Barrick should easily follow.
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SAND looked like it was getting punished after their earnings release last week, but it sure did respond well today.
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Stocks that I have pointed out as looking good after earnings reports did well too, Stocks like SVM, BTG, AG, etc.
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BTG held up at the 200sma too. This is the 3rd day that it dropped to that area and bounced or closed higher. That looks like it is being accumulated, as though sellers start to sell and buyers scoop it up. I was one of those buyers this week, and a stop can be placed under the 200sma.
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l like the set ups in the Precious Metals Sector, especially when the General Markets sold off into the close and Miners did not follow the markets lower. Now we just need to see some buying come in to confirm a dcl. The General Markets, Oil, and Bitcoin remain choppy for now. We’ll see what that 8:30 Jobless Claims report does to our current set ups. Stay Frosty and enjoy your Thursday trading!
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~ALEX
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From Yesterday: I said…
BITCOIN can bounce from here, but just based on what I see here, I have to expect another drop after a bounce. We usually have 60 day cycles and we lost the lows at day 43. That gives us 14 days to get to 60, or 2 weeks, so that might give us an ICL, but I honestly have to view this selling as incomplete. Can you buy a reversal low? Yes, but it may be better to view it as a short-term trade and keep an active eye on it.
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BITCOIN is breaking down with plenty of time left to bounce and then sell off again. Day 44 also dipped lower. Please read the chart, I think that it is just too early for a meaningful low, but a bounce & drop is possible.
