Thursday February 20th
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On day 25 out of the ICL The SPX made a new high as expected. This makes the first daily cycle R.T. and we were expecting that, even though the first few weeks were very choppy. This can continue higher and it is a bullish set up.
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The NASDAQ did not make a new high yet, but it has a large consolidation area that I have been pointing out. These can build energy for the next run and I am seeing an inverse H&S pattern that even has 2 left shoulders and 2 right shoulders and the head was a shakeout at the 50sma. This set up is bullish too.
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The SOXX was choppy and weak and I was actually expecting it to break down, when it lost the 50 & 200sma & the 50sma crossed under the 200sma. I even shorted it a couple of times using the SOXS, but got stopped out.
It eventually formed a triangle, and a triangle can start to put in ‘higher lows’ and that makes it start to become bullish. With higher lows, it won’t sell off, so that is what we saw as the timing for the ICL arrived. We did have a huge slam down/ gap down low though in January. The SOXX remained very choppy at the ICL, until this week when it broke above the 50 & 200sma again. Let me show you 3 related stocks…
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Let me show you 3 related stocks, and notice that they have 3 different set ups ( 3 different strengths).
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AMD sold off in a downtrend that lasted throughout 2024. It reached new lows, but now it may bottom with this large descending wedge. In 2023 -2024 AMD rallied from $90 to $220 under similar selloff conditions.
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When we look at MU, we see more of a selloff that turned into a large sideways base, trapped under the 200sma. This could break out now in the first or second daily cycle, since we have an ICL in place.
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Now we take a look at TSEM and we see the stronger move, since it was in an uptrend. I would say that as a buy & hold, it was profitable last year running from roughly $22 to $55 while the others were selling off, but this was extremely choppy and unpleasant at times too. That said, it crashed in January with the others, but it may be stable now and ready to move higher with this double bottom above the 200sma. That double bottom low was put in after earnings 2 weeks ago.
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WTIC – Oil was or is due for a dcl. I discussed that I thought we had the dcl and then it broke that low, so this might be the dcl or we are in a failed daily cycle that will chop lower. Oil stocks are choppy and many returned to their consolidation lows again. See NOG, APA, VLO, WTI, VET, etc.
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See NOG, APA, VLO, WTI, VET, etc.
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THE USD is on the 4th weaker daily cycle and should roll over.
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I’ve been sick this week, so I fell asleep early and got up early. This was GOLD at 4 a.m. and it is at another new all-time high. DCLs are not visible on this run, since price didn’t break the 8 ema, however take a look at the recent pause. This recent consolidation does now resemble a triangle and that may be the low or ‘pause’ in this run. I knew Gold would be strong, but this is stronger than I expected, based on past rallies that had more visible dips along the way.
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SILVER was also making a new high at 4 a.m. Silver has a lot of catching up to do, and Silver stocks that released earnings have been horrible, so we’ll just have to watch and see if things start to accelerate to the upside in this daily cycle.
CYCLE COUNTS FROM YESTERDAYS REPORT: So we have a day 31 spike down low.
Gold ran back up to the highs, but THE GDX has not. This count looks clear, since it is not as choppy as Silver at all. This would be day 32 without a real dip under the 10sma along the way.
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I pointed out this rising channel pattern along the way in 2024. The ICL sell off was a crash, but we can see that The GDX is recovering. It still has more upside potential to reach that upper trend line.
YESTERDAYS REPORT MENTIONED SOME GOLD STOCKS THAT PULLED BACK AND DIDNT FOLLOW GOLD. I USED THE FOLLOWING 2 CHARTS AS AN EXAMPLE. I AM NOW WONDERING OR THINKING THAT THESE GOLD STOCKS MAY BE AT A DCL, WHILE GOLD PUT IN THE TRIANGLE. THAT MEANS THEY MAY BE AT THE LOWS. KEEP AN EYE ON THESE LEADERS. Yesterday I said…
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Some of the Miners that had a solid run higher, like HMY, are not following Gold anymore. HMY has been pulling back for the last 5 days.
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KGC also had a nice run with Gold, but it has been dipping lower over the last few days too.
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Things have been choppy in the General Markets, Bitcoin, and in the Precious Metals. That does now seem to be coming to an end for the General Markets, and they are now pushing to new highs after all of that chop. We will get a dip into a dcl in a week or 2, and that dcl will be another ‘buy’. The Precious Metals Miners chopped lower, as seen above, but that may be a dcl forming while Gold put in a brief triangular consolidation. Hopefully Silver will get running and drag up the Silver miners with it. Bitcoin? Still chopping, so we’ll see if that changes over time too. I’ll discuss it below and enjoy your Thursday trading!
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~ALEX
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FROM YETSRDAY:
Bitcoin is on day 37 Wednesday and it still has not been able to move above the 20 ema. I did see that CIFR, IREN, and a few other crypto stocks are holding up and doing ok, but it is nothing to get excited about yet.
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BITCOIN – The choppiness in the General Markets and Precious Metals may be ending, so maybe Bitcoin will finally break above that 20 ema and give us some upside progress too? It is pushing on the 20 ema now. Some crypto stocks…
Some crypto stocks have simply chopped sideways as Bitcoin chopped sideways, so if Bitcoin breaks out and takes off higher, we want to keep an eye on the Miners, since they may follow. Riot bounced right off of the 200sma and has held up above it since then.
