Wednesday January 8th – What was THAT?

  So far, Monday was a GREAT day of trading, it seemed like everything was running higher from Friday and right on into Monday….and then came Tuesday. The markets changed direction fast, when the jobs report seemed to indicate that the Fed would likely NOT be in a hurry to lower interest rates. Today we have a Jobs report out at 8:30. That may or may not move the markets.  Let’s take a look at the results and as a reminder, all of the information that I can find is saying that the markets are closed tomorrow in the US for a day of mourning.

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I discussed that it looked like we had a dcl on day 31 for The SPX.  Price closed above the 50sma & 20 ema and it looked like we would rally, but yesterday the markets sold off pretty hard when it appeared that the Fed would not need rate cuts to help the economy. We must now be aware of follow through to the downside.

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As you know, back in December I was thinking that we would see an ICL drop into January and then a low would form. The sudden surge higher in January gave us what looked to be a day 31 dcl, but it is possible that we still get a roll over and an ICL drop too. Todays CPI Numbers may give us a hint as to what is next.

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Zooming in on The NASDAQ, I wanted to point out the heavy volume and large price candle. Is this day 34 or is this day 3? Monday was a large bullish gap up higher, Tuesday was a bearish looking heavy volume slam down.

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And of course, The SOXX made a very unusual & bullish move on Monday by gapping up and over the resistance area, only to drop down and start to lose the 200 sma again. There is no way to know, at this point, if this is just a short-term reaction and the markets will continue higher or not. We’ll have to watch and see which direction has the follow through.

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WTIC – Oil has run up to the 200sma and stalled for now. This nonstop chop formed a triangular pattern. This now takes on a bullish appearance. A pullback to back-test the 50sma or triangle is not out of the question, since that would just be a dcl.

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GOLD is choppy too, and it with an ICL in place, it is expected to break & run higher soon, similar to what we just saw with Oil. The MACD is bullish. The sharp drop in the markets and bitcoin did not flow over into Gold.

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SILVER is very slowly climbing higher, but you can see that every day has seen a sell off into the close. The Silver Miners are doing that too, with pop and drop action and slight gains daily.

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GDX popped and dropped yesterday too. You can see that price is climbing higher out of the recent low, but it is choppy and frustrating.

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Don’t forget that yesterdays report had charts with many stocks like CHPT, FCEL, BLDP, PLUG, AAOI, MU, OKLO, AMZN, GOOG, NVDA, AFRN, PLTR, and more. I was watching these during the consolidation or selling, to see how they fare. Now You can go back and see what the set ups were and how they look. You’ll notice that even today most are actually still fine after Tuesdays selloff, but we did have a pretty rough down day yesterday.  We’ll have to watch and see if that was just a 1 day reaction to the jobs report and Fed expectations, or something more?  We have the release of initial jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. and THAT may or may not affect the markets either way too. Keep an eye on the futures after that data release.

 

The U.S. markets are closed tomorrow, so we’ll see what Wednesday brings. Enjoy your Wednesday  trading.

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~ALEX

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Again, for cycle count from the weekend report: Cycle counts from Fridays trading saw us bottom at day 56 and trading  at day 4-5.

Bitcoin put in a low at day 56 and broke out from a bullish descending wedge. With that downtrend break and reversal at the 50 ema, the crypto stocks seemed to finally respond bullishly on Friday.

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BITCOIN 6:30 a.m. Wednesday: This was also affected by the possibility of less rate cuts after that Jobs Report came out. Please read the chart.