Tuesday January 14th
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I wanted to start with a reminder of a couple of ongoing thoughts with the General Markets.
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We are in the timing for a dcl and also an ICL. The orange boxes show the normal deeper dips into an ICL. To get that now we need 1 of 2 things to happen.
1. We need to drop there now, as drawn here. This would include false rallies and choppy drops (like we already have happening0.
2. If we put in a dcl right here and start to run higher, it STILL might then roll over to a 4th daily cycle into an ICL.
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I apologize for the kindergarten artwork, but I realized that I didn’t draw up the 2nd chart of the SPX, so I just quickly drew over the above chart this morning.
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SPX – It is possible that we get a mild ICL right here too, and that is because our 3rd daily cycle is L.T. That would look like the first orange box in April of last year. This means that we are due for an ICL and it can come in January or February.
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THE WEEKLY CHARTS, as seen here with THE NASDAQ WEEKLY, do make me feel that we need to drop lower for an ICL. We have a L.T. 3rd daily cycle now that can drop to day 45 low (ICL), or start a 4th daily cycle and roll over L.T. with an ICL in February. We just have to take it day by day, but the stocks are pulling back nicely and buy opportunities will be at sale prices.
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WTIC – We watched oil chop sideways for weeks and months and it looked weak and ready to break down, until it formed lower highs and a triangle appeared. Oil became bullish and Oil stocks are running higher. They can be a ‘Buy the dip’ play. We’ve traded VLO, APA, WTI, NOG, VET, etc. Now take a look at this…
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Take a look at the strong rally that started about 2 weeks ago. GOLD is in a choppy frustrating triangle right now, but this rally move is what we are looking forward to with Gold, Silver and The Miners too. 🙂 Sometimes it just takes time to play out and get the choppiness to finish up and the buyers to steadily take control.
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The USD put in a reversal candle.
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GOLD is in a large choppy triangle, and that can be frustrating when we wait each and every day for a rally. Gold reached its upper resistance and then dropped on Monday. It is still a bullish set up and when it breaks out it can rally for Months, so better days are coming! In fact—-
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In fact, it is still a very bullish set up.
Just like past frustrating consolidations, you want to keep your eyes on the bigger picture! You can see that when Gold breaks out from this triangle, it can rally for Months, just like it did in the past. Better days are coming!
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SILVER dropped rather sharply on Monday, losing 3.21%. Again, it is choppy and frustrating, but I think that Silver could play catch up to Gold by putting in a massive rally in 2025. If and when it does, Silver stocks will be making huge gains over time, with 7-10%+ days.
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GDX was at resistance and didn’t breakout yet either. We have solid divergence at the lows and the GDX is trying to break above the 50sma. You can see that the blue line (50sma) has played an important part in the GDX price action, so a breakout above the 50sma could lead to a flood of buying. I want to mention something here…
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I want to mention something here:
GDX made a nice bull run from $25 to $44 in 2024, but THAT was an extremely hard buy & hold at times, with all of the choppy daily cycles. In fact, July to now almost looks sideways, right? But a long choppy consolidation can actually lead to an even more bullish rally, and as a result of all of this chop, I think that we could possibly see more of a vertical run in 2025.
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I think that we could possibly see more of a vertical run in 2025. If Gold rallies back up toward $3000, Miners could rally with each dip being bought up sooner. That could give us more bullish action and less chop. We’ll see, but 2025 could be a very good year to be in Miners.
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And the Bullish Miners that I favored are actually still up near the highs. KGC is an example of that, but it too was very choppy and sideways after the initial run out of the lows. This kind of a consolidation could help it to double in a short period of time. $9 to $20 is easy if this gets running.
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The General Markets are chopping lower, but we are in the timing for a dcl, and an ICL is due too. That should create a nice buying opportunity for AAOI, PLTR, MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, XMTR, SOFI, and others that you may like (AI, ROBOTICS, etc). After an ICL, you have 2 or 3 good daily cycles to trade or Buy & Hold, and that is 3 + months. Oil has broken out higher and Oil stocks are now bullish, and the Precious Metals are set up Bullishly too. Things look good in many sectors. I’ll discuss Bitcoin below. Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN – In the weekend report, I discussed how much the Mid-Point consolidation in Box #2 looks similar to where we are now, with the chart below. I then did a cycle count of that time and surprisingly saw that it was 70 days long! See the chart, I posted this in the commenting area.
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So I showed that BITCOIN was a 70 day cycle with a shake out drop at that time, and look at that rally that followed the shakeout. That was part 2 of the run out of the ICL. SO COULD THIS REPEAT? It Might.
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BITCOIN dropped yesterday and I mentioned that this drop could be a breakdown as day 14, OR – it could be a day 70 dcl. It would need to reverse to give us a day 70 reversal. So I was watching for Bitcoin to put in a reversal.
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I was watching the 30 minute chart and started to see a reversal and then it got some follow through, so we were getting a day 70 reversal. And…
I was watching for Bitcoin to put in a reversal and it happened. This was how day 70 looked as we headed to the close. What next?…
Well, now I see the day 70 reversal and today a swing low is in place. How about that? It is possible that the midpoint consolidation now matches our current set up before it launches into a strong rally. There are No Guarantees, but buying with a stop is how it is played and…
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BITCOINs low yesterday had nice divergence and looks to be a day 70 shake out. Next we’ll see if follow through continues, and the crypto stocks follow higher. I showed recently that many are choppy, but they are not at new lows with Bitcoin, so they do look promising.
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I showed recently that the Crypto Miners are choppy, but many are not at new lows with Bitcoin, so they do look promising. They could be under accumulation.
