January 18th Weekend Report
I want to try to keep this weekend report as simple as possible. If we are ‘long’ in a certain sector, we use stops and continue to monitor things along the way. If we see a sell off and get stopped out, we reassess. Let’s see where we are now after this past week of trading.
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THE SPX gapped up and over the 50sma, it broke the downtrend line, the RSI turned bullish and the MACD is starting to cross higher. This is definitely a dcl, but it also has the characteristics of an ICL. Now, let me show you something else…
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The DOW JONES really looks like an ICL. This doesn’t resemble a weak 5th daily cycle as it tries breaking above the 50sma. I see a bullish descending wedge, and a-b-c drop, a higher high on this bounce and the RSI crossed the 50 mark. etc.
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THE NASDAQ WEEKLY shows a couple of deeper ICLs and milder ones. In past runs higher, price runs up the red 10sma, and it has regained that moving average this week.
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WTIC WEEKLY – Oil broke out this week from the downtrend, but it did pull back and close back under it. Volume is increasing, so this isn’t really likely to be a false breakout for very long.
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USD WEEKLY – The USD was down slightly this week.
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GOLD WEEKLY – Last week I said that Gold was a bullish set up and that we could see Gold break out as soon as this week. Well, we did. Gold broke out. Gold is still a really bullish looking set up. It dropped down to the 10 week ma and then broke out, but the Miners are struggling to perform as well as Gold. Hopefully that changes soon.
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SILVER WEEKLY – Silver did not breakout yet, but it regained the 10 & 30 week ma, and that is considered bullish price action in a bull market. The weekly stochastics is as oversold as past ICLs, so we could now see Silver breakout above the downtrend as soon as this upcoming week too.
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GDX WEEKLY – This does not look bad at all, but many individual Miners are choppy and frustrating. The weekly Stochastics is oversold here too, as much as prior ICLs. Price has 3 weeks of gains and now we have to see if it can get above the 30 week ma. If Gold continues higher and Silver breaks out, GDX should be able to breakout too. Silver does have a tendency to put in choppy bottoms, as seen in the magenta boxes, and this one is actually more progressive than the others.
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So it’s as simple as that, right?…Maybe. We do still have Bullish set ups and follow through, but the Gold and Silver Miners need more buyers. We’ll see if that happens this week. Bitcoin is also still a very bullish set up and has a breakout too, but some of the Crypto stocks are also running up and selling back down here and there. They need more Buyers and less profit takers. We’ll see if that happens over time, since Bitcoin should continue higher. The General Markets look ready to run and the stocks that benefit from those runs could start to make some decent gains again, so I will be keeping an eye on that, and put those in the future report.
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Have a great weekend, it is a 3 day weekend in the US, so I’ll see you on Tuesday morning!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN broke out Thursday night and this was a chart of Bitcoin Friday morning at 5 a.m. Bitcoin remains bullish looking and this should be day 4 of 30 or 60, depending on how you look at it, but there is a lot of ‘time’ left in this daily cycle. Hopefully higher and R.T. over time.
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In Fridays report I pointed out that BITCOIN crashed and recovered and that gave us a pattern pointed out to me by Joe Granville that he called ‘railroad tracks‘. This usually marks the low, as sellers bail out and buyers scoop it up just as quickly. I saw this on a 60 minute intraday chart and then expected Bitcoin to hold these lows and push higher.
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And this was the follow through on Friday of that BITCOIN Railroad Tracks Pattern. It ran from $97,000 to almost $106,00.
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BITCOIN broke out last week and is moving higher. It’s really only day 6 and the daily cycles last 60 days long (with dips along the way), so this could make some nice gains. Crypto stocks are making gains, but they can be choppy and tricky at times, so the ETFs may be a good way to go too.
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LET ME SHOW YOU 1 EXAMPLE OF FRUSTRATING CRYPTO STOCK ACTION:
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WULF: You can see that HUT, WULF, RIOT, etc put in good gains for the week, but they were choppy and sold off daily, so it felt uncomfortable at times. Here WULF was up 18.5% for the week. Looks great, right? Well…
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WULF: The daily chart shows how each day price ran, but could not hold the highs. Every day they sold off and every day last week I found that to be frustrating, but again, up 18% for the week is great, so we either
1. Just live with it, buy & hold and try to ignore it?
2. See if it improves as bitcoin runs?
3. Change to the ETFs and see if you get a smoother ride?
