Friday January 24th – Rally
Todays PMI data isn’t released until 9:45 am ET. So far, the General Markets have been quite bullish out of the ICLs.
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THE SPX gapped up Wednesday and on Thursday it continued higher (no gap fill for now). Let’s just call this day 7 of perhaps 35+. There will be a half cycle dip, but so far we are seeing a strong move out of the ICL.
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The NASDAQ continued higher too. It would be great to get a pull back for a day or two next week, just to fill the gap and retest the 50sma, because that would make a great buying opportunity. It does NOT have to happen though.
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PLTR, SOFI, AMZN, NVDA, GOOG, etc – The bullish stocks of the last run are slowly rising higher, similar to the last run. AAOI has not moved back above the 50sma yet, but I think that it will and you could look for laggers like that to buy, or maybe you took a position in these already. They only gain 3-4% /day, but day after day that has added up. You could also just buy these runners on the next tag of the 10sma.
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USD – Choppy, possibly putting in the next dcl. A move above the 20ema and downtrend line should indicate that low is in place, but it may form as L.T. and five us a deeper dip this time. The MACD has a lower high and has already begun the move lower.
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GOLD had a bullish break out, and I expect a run to $3000 or more, but this looks like day 21. The daily cycles have been coming in with Milder dips and earlier dips into the dcl, often near day 23-26 for example. So…
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GOLD could dip to back test for a quick dcl, and then hopefully the Miners will join in the run with a little more enthusiasm, so that would be a ‘buy the dip’ dcl. As pointed out recently, AEM, KGC, IAG, HMY, etc are moving toward their former highs, but others are still near the lows. Silver stocks are lagging too, and I may know why…
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1. Will SILVER break the December lows? If it does, THAT would be the ICL for Silver. It would have a 5 daily cycle intermediate cycle (picture 5 boxes as drawn).
2. This could also drop down and simply put in a double bottom higher low with the December lows, and that would signal that we have an ICL and would be starting the 2nd daily cycle. So far, the downtrend line has held price back, so it does not look like an ICL yet.
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Some Miners have been weak, some have been stronger, but The GDX actually does not look bad at all.
It DID break the downtrend and has a large A-B-C Crash into the ICL. The problem? Gold formed a triangle and is already back near the highs, so the GDX looks weak down near the lows. Actually, this could be a good thing…
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A good thing?
GDX got a late start and is only on day 15, but if it dips down and rests on the 50sma as a dcl soon, maybe near day 23 or so, it is a ‘buy’ and can run stronger in the 2nd and 3rd daily cycle.
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So the Bulls are still in control and the trade set ups have been playing out nicely in many areas. On the dips (1/2 cycle lows, quarter cycle dips, dcls, etc.) they will be ‘buy the dip’ opportunities. We will review several stocks as they pullback and usually milder dips reach the 10sma or 20 ema, the deeper dips like a half cycle low can reach other levels of support. Bitcoin is below. Enjoy your Friday trading!
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~ALEX
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NOTICE THAT DAY 9 & day 10 are Red days.
Yesterday, using this chart, I showed that BITCOIN dropped on Wednesday and continued lower overnight. I stated that with this drop it was surprising to see that RIOT, MARA, CLSK, CIFR, IREN, etc reversed and turned green. So I concluded that MAYBE they WILL follow Bitcoin higher after all, since they had been a bit choppy. Bitcoin then reversed higher later in the day…
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BITCOIN – So that red day 10 turned green and now day 11 is green too. That’s good, but I did mention a week ago that after we form a cup, we could start to build a handle, and that may be why some of the Crypto stocks aren’t quite ramping up yet. We’ll see if this can break out higher above $100,000 sooner than later, and THEN we’ll see if the Crypto stocks have some follow through. Yesterday many did a pop and drop when Bitcoin did a pop and drop doji, but they held up well.
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BITCOIN – This is just a cleaner look at Bitcoins cup and you can see that a handle may possibly be forming, unless this just rallies and breaks out over the weekend.
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MARA – So are these laggers a ‘gift’? Will we look back a month from now and see MARA at $30 and wish we bought it under $20? That is very possible, with a rising MACD and price holding the 20 ema for now.
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HUT– Some of the Miners did have a nice run at the end of last year and have held their gains reasonably well. It is not an easy ‘buy and hold’ due to the extreme chop, but over time these may do well.
